The major Vietnamese banks' ratings largely reflect difficult domestic
operating conditions and other structural issues typically found in low-income
emerging markets, said Fitch Ratings in a recent report.
Those banks’ outlook is “stable”,
reflecting that the banks' ratings in the single 'B' category are already among
the lowest in Asia as well as the Vietnamese sovereign's "stable
outlook".
Downside rating risks could arise
if the operating environment becomes even more challenging than Fitch's current
expectations and significantly threatens banks' solvency, and/or due to
negative rating action on the sovereign, Fitch said.
“Fitch forecasts Vietnam's GDP
growth at around 5 percent for 2012 and around 5.8 percent for 2013, lower than
the 7 percent average over 2004-2011.”
Regulatory efforts at cutting
interest rates and capping lending rates have done little to support investor
sentiment, with credit growth of only 2 percent in January-September.
Slower-than-expected credit
growth, together with governance issues, persistent global uncertainties and
high levels of corporate leverage - evident in the country's credit/GDP of 113
percent at end-2011, continues to weigh on the domestic economy, the rating
agency added.
The banking system is vulnerable
to macroeconomic shocks, with pressures already mounting on asset quality,
earnings and capital of the major Vietnamese banks.
“Fitch continues to believe that
reported non-performing loans (NPLs) are understated which, together with poor
transparency, mean that banks' capitalization would be much weaker than
reported.”
“Around half of banks' capital
could be at risk, based on the central bank's public admission that the
system-wide NPL ratio could be as high as 10 percent.”
“Fitch believes the actual figure
is higher and could weaken given the downside risks from a materially weaker
economic environment. Structural issues, including deposit competition and
fragile confidence, may keep loan/deposit ratios over or close to 100 percent
for most major Vietnamese banks.”
There has been little perceptible
progress on Vietnam's banking system reforms, such as banking sector
consolidation and the establishment of an asset management company to acquire
bad debt from banks.
Local authorities have also
mentioned concurrent reforms surrounding state-owned entities and investments
in Vietnam, but meaningful progress here has proved elusive.
TUOITRENEWS
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