A new report released as the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian
Nations prepares for its annual summit says that the bloc is poorly equipped to
defend its interests in relation to Asia-Pacific powers the United States and
China, ranging from overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea to
demands for more trade and engagement in the region.
The report by LSE IDEAS, the
London School of Economics’ center for the study of international affairs,
analayzed how each of the region’s countries is responding to the differing
strategic interests of the United States and China. It found that most states
held a “more benign” view of American interests but that overall, their desire
for bilateral gains – including increased trade with China – could reduce
Southeast Asia’s overall bargaining power.
China’s neighbors and friends in
the region have welcomed US engagement in the region, but largely want to
maintain cordial ties with Asia’s largest economy, and in some cases,
particularly the Philippines, have had to carefully balance China’s interest in
the South China Seas or risk conflict, the report said.
The report comes as ASEAN will
host its annual summit and a series of other gatherings in Cambodia starting
Sunday that will be joined by U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese Premier
Wen Jiabao and the leaders of Japan, South Korea, Australia and India.
“ASEAN represents a market of
over half a billion people, with a combined GDP growth currently double the
global average,” the report says, but Southeast Asian states have so far been
unable to form a regional strategy. “Regional member states need to empower
ASEAN to represent their collective strategic interests” or the region risks
surrendering its future to the two giant powers.
Southeast Asia has increasingly
been on the radar of governments, investors and business leaders in recent
years, a process accelerated by the recent U.S. defense “pivot” to the region,
relative political stability in most countries and record growth rates for
important players like Indonesia.
The report argues that China’s
economic rise has forced the bloc to “see imperatives of geo-economics trump
issues of geopolitics” despite territorial issues in the South China Sea, a
hot-button issue that pits China, which claims all of the strategic waters for
itself, and competing claims by ASEAN members Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei
and Malaysia.
China’s most reliable ally in
ASEAN, Cambodia, prevented the bloc from adopting a common position on the
issue at an important meeting in July, and Nicholas Kitchen, editor of the
report, said that the U.S. resurgence in Asia has also provoked suspicions
among some members.
ASEAN has drawn members closer in
economic arrangements in recent years, with a regional trade pact that, among
others, will allow free movement of manufactures goods, services and labors
across the 10 countries, due to be in place by the end of 2015, but the report
suggested that the organization needs unity to carry its members interests
forward by prioritizing the region instead of individual countries. Bottlenecks
to implementing closer economic integration include addressing domestic
reforms, gaps in infrastructure and differing levels of protectionism.
Shibani Mahtani
Business & Investment Opportunities
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