I was glued to the television as Mitt Romney gained in the early stages
of elections and when the 174 mark was reached breathed a sigh of relief.
Praise the Lord. One thing which
I am quite positive is that from now on, US policy on Asia will speak volumes
and firm up. This is the first occasion in which a two-time American president
has made concrete proposals regarding Asia and he will now be able to implement
them in full.
His Foreign-Policy outlook
remains solid and useful for this region and he will also be the first American
president to travel to Southeast Asia, only two weeks from now.
A Burmese government official has
confirmed. “Obama will come to Rangoon on Nov. 19. and met the president and
Daw Aung San Suu Kyi in attending the East Asia Summit in Phnom Penh” the White
House has just confirmed the trip. The American Nobel Peace Prize meeting the
Burmese Nobel Peace prize is quite natural and this historic visit would no
doubt embolden President Thein Sein’s reform agenda while boosting the image of
a government that came to power through rigged elections in 2010.
We can only hope that the world
will be a much better and safer place when his re-election comes at the same
time, as China is also electing a new batch of leaders with Xi Jinping as the
new president and Secretary-General of the Communist Party. US-China relations
can be expected to improve further, despite competitive tensions in East Asia
and the Pacific.
Therefore we can hope that the
world's most important bilateral relationship is on the upswing. The upcoming
East Asia Summit in Phnom Penh (Cambodia) will serve as litmus test regarding
how the US and China can work together for the prosperity and stability of
Asia, and particularly on sensitive security issues.
The World knew that the U S
remains a key actor in the contemporary era. It has the biggest economy in the
world, possesses more military capabilities than the next leading 10 countries
combined, and is the pre-eminent player in the production of popular culture.
The US is not only different from other nations but that it provides an exemplary
political model for the rest of the world.4
As for foreign policy, Mr Obama
has pledged to maintain the strongest military in the world but believes after
a decade of war, the US must nation-build at home and lead by force of example
rather than the example of force. For the Obama team, history does not need to
be "shaped" because it already offers a clear and positive verdict
for United States values and interests. In an interconnected world, it is the
ideas of democracy, not dictatorship and political fundamentalism, which have
mass support.
But whether Asia policy gets the
kind of attention from the US as during the first term will depend partly on
who succeeds Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. She has made at least a dozen
trips to the region including Burma and championed the view that U.S. interests
lie in more ties with that booming continent. Clinton’s visit to Burma in
December last year was also an interesting turning point in US-Burma relations.
Washington decided to relax
restrictive measures and even powerful US congressmen, who have long been
vehemently pro-sanctions in line with Suu Kyi, visited Burma and decided it was
time to welcome the former pariah nation back into the fold. Perhaps, the
agenda of the next secretary of state, who is yet to be named, could be at the
mercy of events for political problems at home could also cramp Obama’s
outreach to Asia.
His most immediate domestic
challenge is an impending showdown over tackling the national debt that
economists say could send the world’s biggest economy back into recession. We
know that he must reach a budget deal with Republicans to prevent a combination
of automatic tax increases and steep across-the-board spending cuts—dubbed a
“fiscal cliff”—set to take effect in January. That would entail nearly US $500
billion in defense spending cuts over a decade that could undermine plans to
devote more military assets to the Asia-Pacific, where the increased
capabilities of Chinese forces pose not only a growing challenge to US
pre-eminence in the region but its assertiveness is felt in Asia. Obama has
attempted a balancing act in relations with Beijing, seeking deeper ties and
encouraging it to play by international norms to ward off the possibility of
confrontation. His second term is likely to see more attention on economic ties
with Asia. The US will be looking to finalize the Trans-Pacific Partnership, an
11-nation regional trade pact in a time of bitter partisanship in Washington,
which could be an issue where Obama finds common cause with Republicans.
President Barrack Obama’s visit
to Southeast Asia, have been largely welcomed by the region’s political and
business establishments.5 Burma has been deemed the success story of Obama’s
foreign policy strategy. During his annual State of the Union address to a
joint session of Congress, the 44th US president praised ongoing democratic
reforms by noting, “A new beginning in Burma has lit a new hope.” Burma is a
neighbor of China and India with direct access to the strategically important Bay
of Bengal and Indian Ocean. Moreover, a country bordering China, and generally
known to be in Beijing’s pocket, which suddenly forges closer ties with
Washington is a rare foreign policy coup for the White House. Burma’s move from
authoritarian rule to democracy will therefore be welcome in Washington, even
if it still has far to go, and this can also be seen as a political achievement
for Obama in election year. Obama’s strategic policy of using Burma as its
“pivot towards Asia” has been greeted with interest in Southeast Asia. Many
countries in the region want to counter China’s growing influence and this
could work in Washington’s favor.6
China’s investment in Burma
reached US $20.26 billion by the end of last year, making it once again the
nation’s largest foreign economic partner. In the first six months of this
year, bilateral trade amounted to $2.6 billion, while China’s investments also
increased during this period with heavy input in the energy sector. Li Junhua,
Chinese ambassador to Burma, recently told Xinhua news agency that for more
than 60 years of Sino-Burmese diplomatic relations, the two countries’ leaders
have maintained frequent and reciprocal visits based on mutual respect and
support, pushing the continuous development of traditional, neighborly and
friendly ties. China’s influence and strong political ties with Burma’s top
leaders—including active and retired military bigwigs plus the business
community and Burmese-born Chinese businessmen—should not be discounted. In the
past, China used its veto to protect the former Junta from frequent
condemnation at the UN Security Council. To be blunt, China thinks Burma owes
it one. But Chinese influence on the Burmese public is almost non-existent and
indeed contrasts strongly with the US. Washington’s engagement in Burma does
not merely involve the government—it has established strong contacts with
opposition and civil society groups both inside and outside the country. Burma
continues to normalize relations with the US, we can anticipate some dramatic
changes in its foreign policy balance sheet. One thing is sure; Burma does not
want a patron-client relationship as other neighbouring countries the only
aspect is that Burma no longer needs to hide behind China. The fact remains
that China will not sit idly by and let Burma go without a fight.7
If Mitt Romney had won he would
have no reason to come to Southeast Asia not to mention Burma and would to
consolidate his new administrative and reshape US foreign policy towards the
Middle East, focusing on Israel and Iran. Muslim countries of ASEAN like
Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei did not like Mitt Romney proposed US war with Iran
as they have maintained good bilateral relations with Iran and Arab states. If
Asia matters, it is all about China and Japan.
If there has ever been any US
president that is knowledgeable and appreciative of ASEAN, it is Obama. The US
rebalancing policy with the incumbent remaining at the White House, this policy
will enter its second phase with intensified US engagement with group members
in all areas. It will also be a new security toolbox for the region. The world
wants a US president with a practical foreign policy towards China. The Obama
administration’s policy is both competitive and collaborative which augurs well
with the ASEAN approach to the two super dialogue partners and the region will
benefit from this balanced approach providing it has sufficient room to engage
and secure influence in ways that would increase the region’s profile.
Currently Cambodia wants to
demonstrates demonstrate that it has a neutral foreign policy regarding major
powers, especially towards the US and China. For him to come this far and visit
Cambodia and Burma without touching down on tarmac in Thailand, a long-standing
US ally, would be utterly impossible.
We prefer a US leader who does
not treat Russia as an enemy as it would have a direct impact on overall
regional peace and stability. Russia under third-time President Vladimir Putin
is returning to the region, in particular the previous Indochina, where the
former Soviet Union used to reign supreme. Moscow wants closer cooperation with
ASEAN and is willing to do more to harness these relations. Please recollect
that in 2005, it was Moscow that demonstrated eagerness to attend the nascent
East Asia Submit .
ASEAN hitherto has taken for granted
that China would not act assertively as it would be accommodative to the bloc’s
interests and remain at best benign but at the ASEAN-China retreat in Pattaya
at the end of October Beijing delivered direct and tough words by reiterating
that it would no longer hold back—any provocation would see a proportional
response to the perceived threat to China at the time. This did not bode well
as is likely to other territorial disputes in this part of the world. Hence
ASEAN have changed this long-standing perception and now, individually and
collectively, will have to decipher a new batch of younger Chinese leaders and
their motives toward the region. Failure to do so would further deepen mutual
suspicion that both sides could not afford to have at this juncture. Obama’s
visit came at the right time.
Two factors could have catapulted
international affairs to greater prominence: American embassy attack in Libya
attack and the foreign-policy debate.9 “It's Libya where Romney went weak”
according to Washington Post' "He could have hit Obama on Libya in the
third debate. He could have hit him after. He never touched him. It would have
been devastating for Obama. Romney looked set to spark a currency war with
Beijing out of a misplaced diagnosis of America's economic woes — blaming China
for the US increase in debt — and the cost could have plunged the economies.
The culmination of the US presidential race would also seem to end the slew of
anti-China remarks from both major-party candidates even though it won't alter
the nature of US-Chinese relations. The second Obama administration will
continue the trade disputes with China but unlike Romney, president will not
brand China as a currency manipulator. Obama is likely to try to mend the
US-China relationship and “initiate greater diplomacy over a range of issues to
find common ground.” The US economy has rebounded — slowly — from the
subprime-mortgage crisis and resulting financial tumult Obama inherited in
2009. While his policies, some a continuation of Bush's, helped avert
catastrophes in the banking and automotive industries. At least 37 US states
are home to some form of Chinese investment, supporting about 30,000 jobs in
sectors including auto parts, information technology and services, according to
consulting firm Rhodium Group.
But Obama has blocked Ralls Corp,
owned by executives of China's Sany Heavy Industry Co, from buying four wind
farms near a US navy test site in Oregon, citing national-security concerns. It
was the first time in more than two decades that a US president barred a
foreign investment. It is counterproductive for bilateral relations that are
far more extensive than just economic issues. It is good politics but bad
economics. Blaming China for jobs lost during a recession may be popular with the
average American voter, but the worst thing that could happen to the American
economy is if China's economy were to falter. But Obama’s visit will be the
most significant step in the effort to support human rights and democracy in
Burma, and stop the ethnic cleansing.
End Notes
1 The Nation, Obama's victory
could bode well for the region 8-11-2012
2 Obama expected in Burma
Official this month Irrawaddy 8-11-2012. It was also reported in the AP News
and Lethbridge Herald. But later confirmed by the White House 9-11- 2012 Euro
Asia.
3 Zaw; Aung Obama to Burma
Irrawaddy 7-11-2012
4 Otago Daily Times Barack Obama
v Mitt Romney - a clash of visions and policies for the United States 8-11-2012
5 Phyo; Kyaw Tha and Aung; Dennis
Burma’s Joy at Obama’s Victory and VisitIrrawaddy 8-11-2012
5Phyo; Kyaw Tha and Aung; Dennis
Burma’s Joy at Obama’s Victory and VisitIrrawaddy 8-11-2012
6 Zaw; Aung Obama to Burma
Irrawaddy 7-11-2012
7 Zaw; Aung Obama to Burma
Irrawaddy 7-11-2012
Chonkittavorn; Kavia Ten Reasons,
ASEAN Prefers OBAMA 5-1- 2012 The Nation Daily
8 Chonkittavorn; Kavia Ten
Reasons, ASEAN Prefers OBAMA 5-1- 2012 The Nation Daily
9 Foreign Policy Did foreign
Policy Matters in 2012 Elections 7-1-2012
10 http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/obamas-return-comes-with-re...
11 YUWEI; Zhang in China Daily
7-11-2012
12 Ibid
Kanbawza Win
Business & Investment Opportunities
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