The uptick in the US economic data and early signs of bottoming in
China’s slowdown are giving Asean a good opportunity to deploy money into
sectors that provide exposure to economic growth in China such as banking and
insurance in the H-Share market, said Hwang-DBS Investment.
Hwang-DBS said high quality
dividend stocks and bonds in Asia will continue to do well as interest rates
remain low in developed markets.
"In addition, we believe
that the green energy sector in China will be a potential beneficiary of the
China government’s push towards cleaner energy sources for the country.
"This will encourage assets
inflow into the Asian region as the search for superior yield continues,
providing support to the asset price," it said in a research note today.
The research house said the
leadership transition in China will be smooth and positive for the Asian and
local market as Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang are tipped for the role of President
and Premier, respectively.
It said the new party should be
pro-business as Xi is an ‘elitist’ who supports businesses and enterprise and
is also seen as a ‘populist’ who does not compromise social welfare for
business growth.
The research house said Li is
seen to support greater international trade relations as well as the promotion
of green energy sources.
"This inclination could
herald greater emphasis on growing greener and cleaner energy and points to the
continuation of the robust bilateral trades between China and the rest of
Asia," it added.
Hwang-DBS said at the rate of 7.5
per cent growth a year, it is reasonable and sustainable for China to keep its
economy from overheating, but warm enough to keep unemployment in check.
Besides, the China government has
enough reserves in their coffers to ensure that their economy will not be too
cool such that it results in unemployment, it added.
"The government will not
risk the unemployment rate spiking and they will do what they can to keep this
rate in check as changes by even one percentage point will be too much to
handle.
"To add to that, the new
leaders will implement policies to ensure they start their administration on
the right footing," it said.
On the recent US election,
Hwang-DBS said the loose monetary policy in the US will continue for the time
being, as President Obama blazes into his second term.
"This means the market can
take a short breather for now, knowing that Ben Bernanke will remain Fed
Chairman for the time being, and his “accommodative monetary policy” will
provide the much-needed lifeline to the US economy, despite concerns that the
sustaining power QE3s (Quantitative Easing 3) are getting shorter," it
added.
It said the Hurricane Sandy
aftermath provides an opportunity for the US government to pump-prime, rebuild
the cities, tend to the welfare of those who are affected and to reach a
compromise on the “fiscal cliff” terms such as extension on tax breaks on
certain sectors, raising the debt ceiling and milder budget cuts to make life
less painful for everyone.
"If the market accepts it
well, this will be positive for Asean and our local market” it said.
Bernama
Business & Investment Opportunities
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