As the Burmese government prepares to host an energy forum in Rangoon
with proposals for coal fuel imports, a study of the country’s severe
electricity supply deficiencies recommends a combination of natural gas and
river hydro dams.
The study, by David Dapice, a
Southeast Asian economic development specialist linked with Harvard Kennedy
School in the US, also recommends avoiding the trend among neighboring
countries to resort to coal power plants to feed rapidly rising electricity
demand.
The release of the study comes as
Rangoon was identified this week as one of several emerging Southeast Asian
business cities facing “severe risk” of flooding and other calamities due to
climate change. Coal burning is one of the worst causes of greenhouse gas
emissions blamed for triggering global warming and climate change.
Dapice’s proposal, which
coincides with Aung San Suu Kyi’s plea for environmentally friendly energy
development, suggests that Burma’s development in the southern half of the
country is fueled with natural gas and in the northern half by hydroelectric
systems on rivers, notably in Kachin State.
Dapice suggests that Burma’s
government renegotiates hydropower deals between the former military regime and
Chinese state businesses to better benefit Burmese.
“The Myitsone and six other dams
in Kachin State would have provided more than 10,000 MW of capacity. However,
90 percent of the power [under old contracts] would have gone to China. It is
likely that Myitsone will be canceled since it is so sensitive and unpopular,”
he said in his report for the Ash Center at the Harvard Kennedy School.
“If China wishes to salvage its
past investment in dams and develop a mature and less extractive relationship
with Myanmar, it will have to renegotiate the past contracts which were
one-sided. The Kachin will have to be involved or else they will create
instability.”
Dapice, also a professor at Tufts
University in the US, says hydroelectric dams should form a pillar of Burma’s
new energy plan but that it would be folly to rely primarily on them because of
loss of generation in the dry season. He recommends also building power plants
fueled by natural gas, which is reliable, domestically accessible and much
cleaner than coal.
India, China and Southeast Asian
countries will account for 40 percent of global electricity demand by 2030 and
hydro-dam power systems and natural gas will dominate although coal will still
be a very significant fuel source, a new industry assessment by the United
States’ business development consultancy Frost & Sullivan forecast last
week.
“Rapid urbanization and the
creation of a middle class will drive electricity consumption in these emerging
economies, as a wealthier population takes up electric appliances that are
considered standard in the developed world,” said Frost & Sullivan.
However, the Burmese government
appears to be gearing up to permit coal-fueled power stations to try to
overcome the severe electricity shortages, as is happening in Bangladesh,
Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia.
An electricity industry
conference planned for January in Rangoon aimed at attracting investors will
discuss issues such as importing coal for new power station development, said
the organizers, the Center for Management Technology of Singapore.
The conference on Jan. 28-31 will
be attended by Power Minister Khin Maung Soe, who will put forward investment
offers to a range of business executives expected to attend.
However, coal fuel is also a
contentious issue. A special economic zone focused on a new industrial port at
Dawei on the southeast coast has been held up since the government vetoed plans
for a large coal-fueled electricity plant to power the development.
“Burma needs to build up its
electricity-generating capacity fourfold as a minimum for a developing economy
over the next decade,” regional energy industries analyst Jeff Mead in Hong
Kong told The Irrawaddy. “That would mean at least 12,000 MW [megawatts]
compared with what is probably today about 3,000 MW existing capacity.
“It’s going to mean 15 power
stations of 600 MW capacities, for example, like the one being built now in
Yangon. Bangladesh has twice as much electricity capacity as Burma right now
but still faces severe blackouts daily which are seriously damaging the
country’s textiles industry.
“In the short term coal could be
the quickest solution to supply problems in Burma, as the Bangladeshis seem to
have decided.”
But the polluting consequences of
burning coal lie at the heart of climate-changing global warming, and in a new
report by risk assessors Maplecroft of the UK, Rangoon is named among seven
cities where “multinational companies operating in the Asian growth economies
will be exposed to spiraling environmental risks.”
“As global corporations expand
into the emerging growth markets, their operations and supply chains will
become exposed to a complex set of climate risks that have the potential to
disrupt business continuity,” said Maplecroft’s Helen Hodge. “It is essential
for companies to identify where suppliers, assets and personnel are most at
risk and plan for the long term.”
The seven Asian cities it says
are at “severe risk” from flooding and other disruptive weather patterns are
Rangoon, Dhaka, Bangkok, Manila, Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh City and Kolkata.
The seven are ranked as most
vulnerable out of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index of 50 worldwide chosen
for their “current and future importance to global business.”
Rangoon is ranked fourth most at
risk.
“The vulnerability of cities in
the growth economies stems not only from their exposure to climate related
hazards, but also the sensitivity of their populations and the poor capacity of
governments to support local adaptation measures to combat the potential
effects of climate change,” Maplecroft said.
During her visit to India last
week Aung San Suu Kyi visited the Energy and Resources Institute near New
Delhi.
“[Burma] is rich in energy
resources, but also needs investment,” she said in a speech there. “We look for
responsible investment that is not only sensitive to the environment, but also
secures the future of our country. We need to learn more about handling our
energy resources. [Burma] also needs an effective energy policy.”
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