ASEAN leaders will find their
bags packed full of expectations and must carry and unpack their burdens with
care. Can positive steps be taken?
Fresh from winning his second
term, American President Barack Obama will be present, alongside Chinese
leaders going through their own and very different transition. The summit will
be a first place to guess about the future for the world's most important
bilateral relationship.
During campaigning, voters
bemoaned the loss of jobs and Mr Obama wagged a finger at Beijing's practices.
It remains to be seen if he will use ASEAN's summit as an informal opportunity
to shift to a more positive note.
The President will then go to
Myanmar, a country until recently closeted and controversial because of human
rights. This will further the Obama administration's pivot towards Asia, but
those who suspect an American containment strategy will be watching closely.
BEIJING'S AMBITIONS
The summit will also evidence
Beijing's attitudes. At the Party Congress, outgoing leader Hu Jintao
underlined China's ambition to become a maritime power.
This comes when territorial
claims at sea are hot-button issues, not only with Tokyo but also in the South
China Sea with a number of South-east Asian states.
The latter disputes marred the
ASEAN Ministerial Meeting in July, which ended without an agreed statement for
the first time in its history. That was attributed to sensitivities about how
to describe disputed claims.
At the upcoming summit, the rival
and unresolved claims cannot be wholly ignored. Yet, if discussion is
unbalanced, differences can be further inflamed.
This brings Cambodia into sharp
focus as the host. When the July meeting broke down, many blamed Beijing's
influence. Cambodia and China have denied this in various ways but a second
test of intention and ability will come at the summit.
Cambodia must be expected to
discharge its responsibility to ASEAN as a whole. The country, after all, hosts
this summit on the group's behalf and not as a national prerogative.
As for China, it has always
officially supported ASEAN's central role and should not divide and weaken the
group.
IS GROUP STRONG ENOUGH?
On its part, ASEAN must continue
to work on the long to-do list arising from the agenda to create an ASEAN
community by end-2015. This concerns not only matters of politics but also
fostering economic integration and better social and cultural understanding.
The summit will include the
launch of an ASEAN institute for peace and reconciliation, and a human rights
declaration. Also expect recommendations to strengthen the group's secretariat,
when Thailand's charismatic Surin Pitsuwan ends his term as Secretary-General
and gives way to Vietnam's Deputy Foreign Minister Le Luong Minh.
These and other aspects of the
intra-ASEAN agenda intertwine with its wider role. ASEAN's community project is
a key pillar for the wider region and vice-versa. This sets the context for
another new initiative expected at the summit.
Talks are expected to begin for a
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to link ASEAN to six Asian
partners - the big three of North-east Asia as well as India, Australia and New
Zealand. Potentially, RCEP will bring together more than three billion people,
with a combined gross domestic product over US$17 trillion (S$20.8 trillion).
This all-Asian effort is
especially significant as Beijing has felt pointedly excluded from the ongoing
and American-led negotiations on a Trans Pacific Partnership. Having ASEAN at
the hub of RCEP underlines the group's significance to others in Asia.
It is not, however, to be assumed
that ASEAN will be strong enough to carry the burden of so many diverse
interests for its own members and the wider region.
Other countries will hopefully
show empathy and support for the many different interests that will be brought
to Phnom Penh.
Only then can ASEAN leaders
unpack a heavy and sometimes awkward Summit agenda, and ensure items are
delivered - and not broken on the way.
Simon Tay
Business & Investment Opportunities
YourVietnamExpert is a division of Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd, Incorporated in Singapore since 1994. As Your Business Companion, we propose a range of services in Strategy, Investment and Management, focusing Healthcare and Life Science with expertise in ASEAN. Since we are currently changing the platform of www.yourvietnamexpert.com, you may contact us at: sbc.pte@gmail.com, provisionally. Many thanks.
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