Nov 16, 2012

Singapore - Trade forecast revised down with Q3 total trade decline

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SINGAPORE: Singapore's total trade declined by 2.8 per cent on-year for the third quarter of 2012 to S$240 billion after growing 2.9 per cent in the previous quarter.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, Singapore's total external trade declined by 6.1 per cent for the third quarter, following a 3.1 per cent contraction in the previous quarter.

IE Singapore said total trade in the first nine months of 2012 grew y-o-y by 2.4 per cent, and in view of the weaker than expected performance of total trade in 3Q, the total trade forecast for 2012 is revised downwards to between 3.0 and 4.0 per cent.

Total trade is projected to grow moderately by between 3.0 and 5.0 per cent in 2013, mainly due to expected slow growth of advanced economies.

According to IE Singapore, the on-year decline in total trade for Q3 can be attributed to a decrease in oil trade which outweighed the expansion in non-oil trade.

Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) also saw a decline in the third quarter.

On a year-on-year basis, NODX contracted by 3.2 per cent in the third quarter, following last quarter's increase of 3.7 per cent.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, NODX declined by 5.9 per cent, following the 3.4 per cent contraction in the previous quarter. This is due to lower shipments of both electronic and non-electronic NODX.

The contraction in the third quarter NODX decline was largely contributed by the EU , Malaysia, United States and Thailand. NODX to EU declined by 16.5 per cent, while NODX to Malaysia contracted by 10.1 per cent. NODX to United States decreased by 7.5 per cent.

Domestic exports of electronics (comprising 33.1 per cent of NODX) contracted by 8.7 per cent in 3Q after increasing by 2.2 percent in the previous quarter, mainly due to to lower exports of PC parts.

As for non-electronics exports(comprising 66.9 per cent of NODX), it declined by 0.3 per cent in 3Q, after earlier growth of 4.6 per cent, led mainly by lower exports of ship & boat structures which saw a 70 per cent contraction.

- CNA/fa/sf

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