Freshly re-elected President Barack Obama's visit to Thailand, Myanmar
and Cambodia later this week will be an extremely important step to firm up his
Asia-Pacific policy, often described as a "pivot" to the region.
The expected 80-hour stopover
will embed the US presence and future power projection in the region in the
context of China's rising influence. It will also turn Asean into an arena
where the world's two superpowers can cajole, cooperate and compete.
Obama will become the first
American leader to visit half of the Asean members during his first term.
Vietnam could have been included in the itinerary this time but it was
deliberately left out. Otherwise, the whole visit could easily be construed as
a concerted effort to counter China's growing influence. Despite the media spin
that the US engagement with Asean comes at the region's repeated request, the
rise of China and its growing confidence remains a major focus, if not
obsession, of the US re-balancing in the Asia-Pacific. Certainly, the historic
trip has zeroed in on the three Asean members with special relations with
China.
The planned working visit to
Bangkok beginning late on Sunday afternoon and ending the next morning with
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra will likely concentrate on reinvigorating
Thai-US relations, especially the faltering Thai-US military alliance and its
place in the new strategic environment in the region. Other key issues include
closer economic and cultural cooperation and exchanges. After initial positive
signals that it would begin negotiations to join the US-initiated Trans-Pacific
Partnership, Thailand has since backtracked and will now promote Thai-US trade
relations under the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement. Thailand and the
US used to have shared economic and security interests, but the former's
political turmoil and inconsistency has gradually diminished its importance,
while other Southeast Asian countries have adjusted and repositioned themselves
within the emerging strategic landscape. Next year, the two countries will
celebrate the 180th anniversary of their diplomatic relations. They are looking
hard for fresh ideas for the occasion, which could include sports events,
cultural performances and education exchanges.
After nearly a decade of
searching for ways to improve the narrow perspective governing their bilateral
relations and transform them into a broader regional context, Thailand and the
US have finally come to terms with what they can do together in the future.
During Obama's visit, Thailand will announce its readiness to join the
Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI). It has taken nine years for the Thai
government to reach this decision. The framework was initiated in 2003 by
President George W Bush to stop the spread of weapons of mass destruction (WMD)
between state and non-state actors. The Thai authorities were concerned that
the interdiction required under the PSI framework would violate the country's
sovereignty and local laws. Over the years, various Thai agencies have
procrastinated, expressing reservations about any decision. Quite frankly,
Thailand's decision comes a bit too late but nonetheless it retains symbolic
value. Unfortunately Bangkok's good ties with Pyongyang and Tehran, two
potential nuclear powers and perceived proliferators of WMD, could be
problematic. Now, a total of 101 countries have joined the PSI's international
effort to promote nonproliferation.
Apart from the PSI cooperation,
US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta, who is scheduled to arrive here on Thursday,
hopes to revitalise military cooperation with Thailand, one of the five US
allies in the Asia-Pacific. Thailand was accorded the status of major non-Nato
ally (MNNA) at the end of 2003 following a brief but intense round of
counter-terrorism cooperation with the US during the first Thaksin
administration (2001-2004). The cooperation saw the surprise apprehension in
August 2003 of Hambali, the Southeast Asian leader of al Qaida, as well as the
dispatch that year of Thai troops to join the coalitions in Iraq and
Afghanistan. Thailand has constantly complained that it has not benefited from
the MNNA status.
The US hopes that Panetta's visit
will mark a new milestone in the Thai-US alliance, contributing to regional
security beyond the bilateral level. Other US allies and friends such as
Singapore and Vietnam have linked with each other as part of the new US
strategic balancing framework. Thai military leaders have a fixed mindset that
the alliance with the US, which was born out of the Cold War, is something very
special between the two sides. In their minds, the US must stand ready to
respond to the changing Thai national concerns from traditional military
threats to institutional wellbeing and stability (royal and non-royal), food
and energy security, environment protection, humanitarian assistance and
disaster management and other issues. From the Thai perspective, the US has
only responded those interests that fit with the US security requirement.
Thailand has often complied with US requests for uses of air bases and other
covert cooperation that served the latter's strategic interests. In comparison,
China fares much better in this area with quite a positive image as far as
reciprocity is concerned. That explains why public scepticism persists over the
US attitude towards the Thai political situation and key institutions, not to
mention the hullabaloo surrounding the US request to use U-tapao airbase for
humanitarian assistance and disaster response and the aborted Nasa climate
change study project. Nasa recently awarded the project to Singapore.
More than Thai officials would
like to admit, the country's longstanding inability to understand the
importance of changing strategic contexts, and to transform the Thai-US
alliance to serve regional security imperatives, has encouraged the US to look
for alternatives. Rubbing salt into the wound, Thailand's close relations with
China and high tolerance of its assertiveness have further confounded US
decision-makers. As the coordinating country for Asean-China relations
(2012-2015), especially at a time when the South China Sea territorial disputes
are high on the agenda, Thailand's behaviour toward China would always be friendly
and reciprocal. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao is scheduled to visit Bangkok after
the Asean summit.
Bangkok's close ties with Beijing
have ironically increased Nay Pyi Taw's strategic value for the US. Myanmar's
ability to say no to China over the Myitsone Dam in Kachin state late last year
demonstrated its desire to distance itself from China's dominance and lessen
the dependency on Beijing it had built up over the past three decades. That
kind of clear action and policy has steered the US to move faster to normalise
relations with Myanmar, which was once branded and condemned as a pariah state
by the US and the West. The Thein Sein government has responded well to US
demands in the past several months. Obama's visit is scheduled for November 19.
It is a big endorsement of the ongoing reforms and future plans to integrate
with the international community. However, continued serious human-rights
violations and the plight of the Rohingya Muslim minority in Rakhine state will
cloud the president's stopover in Yangon, where he will meet Thein Sein and
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
Washington's invitation to Nay
Pyi Taw to join the Cobra Gold war games as an observer next year sends a clear
signal of what the US strategists have in mind. Myanmar's international
integration in both economic and security areas are priorities that will
increase the overall capacity to lessen reliance on China. Cobra Gold, as the
region's largest military exercise, is a training ground for America's friends
to understand each other and work together in chosen areas. In the past few
years, the focus was on humanitarian assistance and disaster response. Myanmar
will dispatch three officials to observe the humanitarian assistance and
disaster response, as well as military medical portions of the exercise. China
is also an observer of the annual exercise, along with Brunei, Laos, the
Netherlands, Russia, South Africa, Sri Lanka and the United Arab Emirates. Last
December, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos and China began to coordinate security
patrols of the Mekong River, which runs through their countries. It was hailed
as the first multilateral security force initiated by China. Lower riparian
countries Vietnam and Cambodia did not take part.
Obama's last stop is Cambodia on
November 20. Cambodia is the current Asean chair and host of the 7th East Asia
Summit (EAS). Akin to the rapidly improved US-Myanmar relations, China-Cambodia
friendship has blossomed in the past 12 years, turning China into the country's
largest aid donor and investor. Since joining the EAS, Washington has skilfully
used the Asean-led multilateral security platform to its advantage under the
Obama administration. Credit must also go to US Secretary of State Hilary
Clinton, who will make a low-profile visit here on Friday, for successfully
highlighting the importance of freedom and safety of sea-lane communications in
the South China Sea in July 2010. Since then, the US has made this the basis of
its support of Asean's ongoing effort to draft a binding regional code of
conduct in the South China Sea, which has put China on the defensive. China
says the timing is not good, especially during its leadership transition.
As the EAS chair, Cambodian Prime
Minister Hun Sen plays an important role in overseeing the direction of
discussion among the leaders, who tend to speak off the cuff. The region's
longest-reigning leader must avoid a repeat of the highly embarrassing incident
at the Asean foreign ministers meeting in Phnom Penh in July, which saw the
grouping's first-ever failure to issue a joint communique due to differences
over the South China Sea issue. Hun Sen's performance will be crucial to the
relevance of Asean centrality. With several overlapping areas in the headlines,
everything the attending leaders and chair say or do at the EAS will impact on
the summit's outcome and its future direction. Asean must be neutral at the EAS
forum, as this will be the most effective way for the grouping to eventually
manage its relations with the US and China.
Kavi Chongkittavorn
Business & Investment Opportunities
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