As the dust settles on the election in the United States and the shadowy
leadership transition in China concludes, the ASEAN now finds itself in a
rather enviable position.
Much like a child being caught
betwixt two feuding parents, countries in South East Asia find themselves
caught between two powers trying to out-do one another.
Both China and the US have placed
an emphasis on the region, especially during the past few years and this is a
trend that looks likely to continue. All the ASEAN has to do is sit back and
collect the spoils as Mum and Dad try to win the affection of their newfound
favorite kid.
The timing could not be more
perfect for countries in South East Asia. Europe has become the burdensome
child in its 30s who refuses to get a job or move out of his or her parents’
house. Meanwhile Africa and South America are still too young for their
respective opinions to matter and the Middle East and Russia are outsiders who
are too volatile to be taken seriously.
In the global household, the
ASEAN is the golden child whom China and the US wish the others would be more
like. Sure, the region is far from perfect but those minor hiccups (i.e.
territorial disputes or democratic injustices), much like the odd bad mark on a
test can be forgotten.
However, it is vitally important
for each and every country to play this as coyly as possible. There is no
reason for any government in the bloc to brazenly choose sides. They can keep
playing Mum and Dad against each other for the next four years and beyond.
Washington has tried to limit
China’s geopolitical influence by trying to bring the region under its wing
while Beijing, obviously not wanting a meddlesome American influence, have
continued to strengthen their bond to the region.
It is hard seeing this trend
ending anytime soon. Obama’s rhetoric on China has been tough and the increase
in the US military presence throughout the Pacific Rim leads observers to
believe this stalemate will continue for the foreseeable future.
China too has been flexing its
military muscles in recent times hoping for a chance to show the world its
might. Those expecting a fight in the pacific, however, better not hold their
breath.
Much like two fighting parents,
China and the US realise they need each other to be successful even if they do
not want to admit it. Both nations find themselves in precarious economic
situations and are currently dependent on the other.
If one were to fall off the proverbial
cliff chances are the other one would too and the rest of the world would
follow suit. It is a scenario nobody wishes to see.
The only real difference between
fighting parents and the China/US relationship is parents usually patch things
up after a day or two and the so-called superpowers are unlikely to kiss and
makeup anytime soon.
This is good news for the ASEAN
as gifts and attention will keep coming its way and allowing for development to
continue. As senseless as the bickering between China and the US is, it just
may be the thing that keeps South East Asia relevant on the global stage for
years to come.
Cheyenne Hollis
Business & Investment Opportunities
YourVietnamExpert is a division of Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd, Incorporated in Singapore since 1994. As Your Business Companion, we propose a range of services in Strategy, Investment and Management, focusing Healthcare and Life Science with expertise in ASEAN. Since we are currently changing the platform of www.yourvietnamexpert.com, you may contact us at: sbc.pte@gmail.com, provisionally. Many thanks.
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