But it may be too little and too late: Ask Sandy's victims
Seventy-four years after the
British engineer Guy Stewart Callendar first attributed climate change to human
activity, and 24 years after it became widely discussed publicly, the
International Energy Agency has for the first time opened exploratory
discussions with companies on the issue.
Last week, the 28-member nation
IEA announced that a select group of companies from the energy and
manufacturing sectors met to discuss the threat to energy systems from climate
change.
“The meeting, which had been
scheduled for several months, comes a week after Hurricane Sandy caused tens of
billions of dollars’ worth of damage along the East Coast of the United
States,” the IEA said n a prepared release. “The storm's aftermath highlighted
the vulnerability of even the most well-developed economies and energy systems
to environmental impacts.”
The IEA was established in the
wake of the 1973-1974 OPEC with the mission of helping countries coordinate a
collective response to major oil supply disruptions through the release of
emergency oil stocks to the markets. Since that time, it has expanded to play a
major role in the global dialogue on energy.
Despite seemingly convening the
group of companies belatedly, the IEA has been growing increasingly concerned
about climate change. Earlier this year, the organization issued its Energy
Technology Perspectives for 2012, saying there is still a chance that a
technological transformation of the energy system could make it possible to
reduce dependency on imported fossil fuels or on limited domestic resources,
decarbonize electricity, enhance energy efficiency and reduce emissions in the
industry, transport and buildings sectors.
But the report said, to do so
clean energy investment must double by 2020, requiring a staggering US$36
trillion across the globe –35 percent more in investment from today to 2050
than under a scenario in which controlling carbon emissions is not a priority.
That, the report said, is the
equivalent of an extra US$130 per person every year. However, the fuel savings
by 2025 would outweigh the investments and by 2050 would amount to more than
US$100 trillion. Even if these potential future savings are discounted at 10
percent, US$5 trillion in net savings would accrue between now and 2050.
The question is whether any of
this is possible given today’s global political priorities. Despite the hammer
blow to the back of the head of the Republican Party in the United States that
was delivered first by Hurricane Sandy, then by the reelection of President
Barack Obama and the defeat of global warming detractors in the US Senate, the
commitment to spend the money up front appears to be lacking across the planet.
For instance, although the Kyoto
Protocol on climate change was adopted in 1997 – 15 years ago – and signed by
191 member states, the United States, the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse
gases, refused to sign. Canada has since withdrawn. And while of the
signatories have committed themselves to reduce or limit emissions of carbon
dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and sulphur hexafluoride, very little progress
has been made. Subsequent attempts at coming to agreement in Copenhagen and
other sites have simply collapsed.
The Energy Technologies
Perspective report itself points out that nine of the 10 technologies that
could be brought to bear for energy and CO2 emissions savings “are failing to
meet the deployment objectives needed to achieve the necessary transition to a
low-carbon future.”
In fact, some of the technologies
with the largest potential are showing the least progress, the report notes,
calling it a “bleak picture.” Only a handful of renewable energy technologies
including hydropower, biomass, onshore wind and solar photovoltaics are making
sufficient progress, the report continues. Other key technologies for energy
and CO2 emission savings are lagging behind.
In particular, perhaps the most
important of these technologies – the ones that allow for the saving of energy
– are falling behind. That includes lack of progress in carbon capture and
storage (CCS) and, to a lesser extent, of off shore wind and concentrated solar
power (CSP).
“The scale-up of projects using
these technologies over the next decade is critical. CCS could account for up
to 20% of cumulative CO2 reductions in the 2DS by 2050. This requires rapid
deployment of CCS and is a significant challenge since there are no large-scale
CCS demonstrations in electricity generation and few in industry.”
Committed government funds are
inadequate and are not being allocated to projects at the rates required. In
transport, government targets for electric vehicles are set at 20 million
vehicles on the roads in 2020. In the United States, these funds are being
actively blocked in the US Congress by global warming skeptics, backed by
energy companies.
With the debilitating global
economic recession continuing, there are few countries that can afford to take
on scaling up the technologies. While current targets are encouraging, the
report notes, they are more than twice the current industry planned capacity.
"Much has been said about
the ways in which our energy system is affecting the climate, yet very little
has been said about the opposite: the effects of a changing climate on our
energy system,” said IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven, who
participated in the talks. "As the IEA's core mission is enhancing energy
security, we think it's imperative to jump-start a conversation about this
issue. Our discussions showed that active dialogue between industry and
governments around this issue can improve our future resilience to climate
impacts."
The IEA Secretariat will host
additional forums as an opportunity for businesses and governments to exchange
views and experience, will establish a database of policies that enhance
resilience of the energy sector as a platform for countries to share experience
and will incorporate into its model-based projections more analysis regarding
the potential impact of climate change on energy supply and demand.
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