Last month's Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit held
in Phnom Penh opened with high expectations and closed with an ambivalence that
has cast new doubts on the 10-member grouping's common destiny.
While the controversy over
competing territorial claims in the South China Sea issue was the most obvious
point of tension, the lack of a common policy on the implementation of a Human
Rights Declaration (AHRD) and disagreements on the construction of upstream
dams on the Mekong river underscored the association's rising divisions.
Earlier, many observers expected
ASEAN to produce a binding code of conduct for the South China Sea during
Cambodia's chairmanship of the grouping, 10 years after the signing by ASEAN
and China's foreign ministers of the non-binding Declaration on the Conduct of
Parties in the South China Sea (DOC). The consensus broke down during the ASEAN
Ministerial Meeting (AMM) held in Phnom Penh in July, with the grouping failing
to agree on a joint communique for the first time in 45 years due to dissension
on the South China Sea.
Many analysts suspected China had
put pressure on Cambodia to refrain from mentioning the issue in the
communique, despite strong lobbying from the Philippines and Vietnam for its
inclusion. The subsequent announcement on July 20 of a six-point principle on
the South China Sea made by Cambodian Foreign Minister Hor Namhong, with
consensus on the document promoted by regional giant Indonesia, was viewed at
the time as a stopgap measure meant to paper over deep differences on the
issue.
At last month's United Nations
General Assembly in New York, Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario
attempted in a speech to win global support for his country's rule of law
position vis-a-vis China over the ongoing territorial disputes in the South
China Sea. Manila's wish to internationalize the issue was clear well before
the beginning of last month's ASEAN summit, which was attended by global
leaders, including US President Barack Obama.
On the eve of the summit, despite
China's warning that the South China Sea issue should not overshadow the event,
ASEAN members said they were ready for formal talks with their bigger neighbor,
even though they were still debating internally their own version of a maritime
code. Later on the same day, however, Cambodian foreign ministry official Kao
Kim Hourn said that Southeast Asian leaders "had decided that they will
not internationalize the South China Sea from now on".
Philippine President Benigno
Aquino strongly rebuked the Cambodian statement, saying no such agreement had
been reached. The competing statements underscored the rising pressures on
ASEAN unity and the grouping's inability to mediate members' often conflicting
national interests.
A photo released by Xinhua, the
official Chinese government media, on November 22 showing a smiling Cambodian
Prime Minister Hun Sen inaugurating a China-funded national road in Prey Veng
province in southeastern Cambodia, demonstrated to some at the summit Beijing's
use of bilateral aid to push its wider regional ambitions.
Whether the situation changes
after Cambodia relinquishes the chairmanship at the end of this year is still a
wildcard. In 2013, Brunei, which also has a contested stake in the South China
Sea, will take up ASEAN's rotational leadership. Meanwhile, ASEAN Secretary
General Surin Pitsuwan, a Thai national who many believe has notched several
diplomatic successes during his five-year tenure, will step down at the end of
2012. Thailand does not have a stake in the South China Sea and has attempted
to play a mediating role in the conflict.
ASEAN's next Secretary General,
Vietnamese diplomat Le Luong Minh, is an experienced diplomat with
distinguished service at the United Nations. He will need to contend with not
only the territorial disputes in which his country is directly involved but
challenges as diverse as Myanmar's democratic transition, the joint promotion
of human rights as established by the AHRD and rising regional tensions caused
by the construction of dams in Laos that threaten to undermine the environment
and livelihoods of riparian villagers in downstream countries such as Cambodia
and Vietnam.
The latter two issues pose
serious threats to future ASEAN unity. After the grouping's inauguration of the
Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights in 2009, ASEAN's 10 members
adopted the AHRD. However, the AHRD was strongly criticized by regional and
international organizations as a paper tiger for excluding civil society
organizations from the drafting process and deferring to "regional and national
contexts" in the mechanism's implementation.
"There is no consensus on
what to do after the 10 leaders adopted the AHRD," said Termsak
Chalermpalanupap, who recently retired from the ASEAN Secretariat.
"Ideally the ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights (AICHR)
should use the AHRD as the basis for drafting the ASEAN Convention on Human
Rights."
Some believe the forced
relocation of thousands of Lao villagers to make way for new hydropower
projects should be taken up by ASEAN's new human-rights body. That seems
unlikely though considering the emphasis individual countries place on ramping
up power generation and infrastructure development, particularly with the
implementation of a new ASEAN economic community looming on the horizon in
2015.
"ASEAN is moving at its own
pace to form an ASEAN Community by 2015 but human rights is an issue that has
the potential to be divisive," said Carlyle Thayer, an emeritus professor
from the University of New South Wales at the Australian Defense Force Academy
in Canberra. He believes that while Cambodia's chairmanship has accentuated
differences inside the association, there is little risk that the grouping
dissolves.
Indeed, the Lao government
recently resumed construction of the controversial, Thailand-backed Xayaburi
Dam project without regional consensus and above strong complaints from
Cambodia and Vietnam. Under the 1995 Mekong Agreement, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand
and Vietnam agreed to cooperate to "optimize the multiple-use and mutual
benefits" of water resources and to "minimize the harmful effects
that might result from natural occurrences and man-made activities".
As the Mekong River Commission's
member countries have not formally agreed to build the project, Laos has been
accused of violating the non-binding consensus reached among ASEAN members.
Moreover, the decision to go ahead with the Xayaburi dam will apparently pave
the way for the construction of a second dam proposed for the Mekong River in
Laos and potentially stoke new ASEAN-China tensions.
Designed by Chinese developer
Datang Overseas Investment Co Ltd, the Pak Beng dam was first envisioned in a
memorandum of understanding signed between the Lao and Chinese governments in
August 2007 and civil society groups say will have adverse downstream impacts
on the environment and livelihoods.
Roberto Tofani
Business & Investment Opportunities
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