Many challenges lie ahead for Asean in the year ahead. Security concerns
will be characterised by heightened tensions in the South China Sea as the
dispute remains unresolved. China has not been shy in asserting its interests
in the territories it disputes with Asean countries and Japan.
Next, uncertainty over the global
economy will be characterised by the rise of Asia, the slow recovery of the US
and the ongoing eurozone debt crisis. Lastly, the worsening effects of climate
change will be more apparent as Thailand withstood 2011's flooding, while the
Philippines is still reeling from Typhoon Bopha.
Asean countries stand a greater
chance of success if they face these challenges together. What is clear is that
these forces will be testing the region's political economy. Only through
cooperation can member states become more resilient against external pressures
and shocks.
The incoming chair of Asean is
Brunei. As chairman, Brunei's mandate will be to set the agenda and issue the
chairman's statements at ministerial meetings and leaders' summits. This is a
powerful tool for a country with a population of 400,000.
Observers have dismissed Brunei
as a diplomatic featherweight. However, it has considerably high stakes in
Asean's success. Unlike Cambodia, Brunei is a disputant in the South China Sea.
This compounds the issue and suggests that Brunei may take a stronger line
against China's claims.
How well it can persuade other
Asean countries will hinge on the diplomatic prowess of its statesmen. Brunei's
Foreign Minister, Prince Mohamed Bolkiah, has famously advocated "defence
diplomacy" _ a doctrine that focuses on continuous dialogue and personal
relationships. This may give some indication of how the Sultanate will use its
status as Asean chair to approach the dispute.
In the economic realm, the
grouping will continue to work towards the Asean Economic Community (AEC),
which is severely behind schedule. However, the AEC will be high on the agenda
of the next chairman.
While it is the responsibility of
member states to accelerate the AEC blueprint, Brunei will have to be the
stimulus. Economic cooperation matches Brunei's policy of diversifying from its
oil wealth and developing other sectors of the economy; all the new
partnerships in the AEC can help it achieve this objective.
Cooperation in humanitarian
assistance and disaster relief (HADR) is also pressing. This provides a venue
for Asean, through Brunei's chairmanship, to engage with the block's dialogue
partners. In addition to the urgency, leaders consider HADR less politically
sensitive, making it a good area for collaboration.
Asean can work with its dialogue
partners in improving HADR, such as faster response time and long-term
solutions to address climate change.
Lastly, the Asean Secretariat will
also welcome a new secretary-general, Le Loung Minh from Vietnam. A seasoned
diplomat, Mr Le was formerly Vietnam's ambassador to the United Nations and
president of the UN Security Council in 2008. His five years at the Secretariat
will be devoted to increasing the efficiency of the Secretariat and improving
the monumental task of coordinating the actions and commitment of the 10
countries.
The year 2013 will be a critical
one for Asean. The challenges carried over from the previous year will be more
intense. The Asean integration process is deeply under-resourced and commitment
to Asean community building from the people, businesses and political
leadership from all the countries will be crucial. The message Brunei is
sending to Asean and the world is "thrusters on full".
Chayut Setboonsarng
Business & Investment Opportunities
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