Disastrous air pollution said to be killing thousands
Record-breaking levels of air
pollution in northeastern China, particularly in Beijing, appear to have
spurred the government to undertake a major program to boost renewable energy
programs across the country.
Record smog is estimated to have
caused 8,000 premature deaths in four Chinese cities in 2012, according to
research by Peking University - twice as many deaths as occurred in the
so-called “Big Smoke” of 1952 that revolutionized the UK's approach to the
environment and the outlawing of coal for heating in London.
The World Health Organization
considers concentrations of the 25 most dangerous particulates per cubic meter
of smog to be hazardous. On Jan. 12, these particulates peaked at 993 per
square meter in Beijing - nearly 40 times the hazard limit. A cardiologist in
Beijing said the pollution had doubled admissions for heart attacks over that
weekend.
Pollution is said to have led to
at least US$1 billion in economic losses, a figure that seems inadequate. Seven
of the world's 10 most polluted cities are in China, according to a report by
the Asian Development Bank, with Shijiazhuang, in Hebei Province, said to be
the country's most polluted city, and probably the world's.
Obviously, the cleanup job is
going to be gigantic. Over the past two years, Beijing has already invested RMB
12 billion (US$1.9 billion) in replacing the coal-fired heating systems of
160,000 homes in its downtown areas and has offered subsidies to residents who
use electricity for winter heating. The city consumed 26.35 million tonnes of
coal in 2010, accounting for 30 percent of its total energy consumption, while
the other 70 percent of its energy consumption was made up of natural gas,
imported electricity as well as new and renewable energies.
That isn't enough. Beijing
suffers from an inversion layer of cold air at about 2,500 meters that traps
the warm air and pollution under it, holding it firmly in place for months at a
time.
The National Energy Work
Conference was held in Beijing on Jan. 8 - in the middle of some of the worst
pollution ever to strike the country, which should at least have provided some
impetus to the cleanup plans.
If China is truly committed by
the scale of the environmental disaster to clean its air, it will greatly
expand its global leadership in renewable energy. We estimate that renewable
energy capital expenditure could reach as much as RMB 500 billion (US$80
billion). The new year is expected to see the largest annual jump in solar,
wind, and hydro power capacities in five years, according to goals set by
Beijing in the energy work conclave Clearly, Beijing is taking advantage of the
slump in the renewables equipment sector, particularly photovoltaic (PV) cells
and modules, to push for an early achievement of China's medium-term clean
energy installation targets.
This year China is looking to add
another 21 gigawatts (GW) of hydroelectric generator capacity, 18 GW of wind
farms, and 10 GW of solar power plants, according to details unveiled at the
January energy conference. Most surprisingly, China is committed to more than
doubling its installed solar capacity by the end of 2013, with corresponding
demand for cells and modules possibly making up nearly 50 percent of total
nameplate capacity of all Chinese solar equipment makers, which stood at 21GW
as of end-2011.
This is a game changer for the
struggling solar industry as well as for other renewables. Long-term 2050 wind
power development plans call for another 10-fold increase in capacity from the
near-term 2015 target of 100 GW. Rising capacity in the outer provinces such as
Mongolia, Gansu and Xinjing will necessitate matching grid investment to
transmit energy to the rest of China. Beijing should release solar industry
guidelines in the coming months.
Photovoltaic power development
plans are spread evenly between solar farms and distributed-type power systems.
In the energy work conference for 2013, distributed systems are stated as the
key focus for the year. According to this report, written by the director and
senior staffs of renewable energy research at the NDRC, there is over 42 GW of
potential solar capacity on rooftops across these listed Chinese cities. Their
estimate points to vast market potential for retail installers.
By 2015, China hopes to satisfy
nearly 10 percent of its total energy consumption with renewable sources, as
stated in its 12th-Five Year Renewable Energy Plan, which was published in
August of 2012. In terms of operating capacity, this reflects 290 GW of
hydroelectric plants, 100 GW for wind power, and 21 GW for solar energy
installations. One gigawatt, or 1000 megawatts (MW), is approximately the power
rating of one typical nuclear power plant. With its now-declared aggressive
2013 plan, China could easily zoom past its medium targets 12 months ahead of
schedule.
At the end of 2012, the nation
had hydropower plants with installed capacity of 249 GW, wind power 62.37 GW,
and PV capacity of approximately 7 GW. In comparison, the country operates 819
GW of thermal power, most of it coal, and 12.57 GW of nuclear power plants with
30 more, or 32.73 GW, under construction. (Despite this, the amount of usable
energy generated by equivalently rated renewable means is far smaller than that
of conventional power plants due to their much more volatile production
profile.) In 2011, total renewable energy sources - wind, hydroelectric,
biomass, solar and geothermal power - replaced the burning of 524 million
tonnes of coal.
This year's annual energy
conference also called for further reforms in the energy sector. In particular,
liberalized price setting mechanisms for natural gas, gasoline, and electricity
charges are expected to continue. A broader reform could also be in the works,
as there appear to be increasing calls for the formation of a Ministry of
Energy from the existing National Energy Administration, in order to better
coordinate increasingly complex administrative and approval tasks now spread
out between various government bodies. For example, the National Development
and Reform Commission (NDRC) currently holds the key to energy pricing and
energy project approval while the Ministry of Industry and Information
Technology (MIIT) takes charge of the energy-saving and emission reduction campaign.
Steve Wang
Business & Investment Opportunities
Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd (SBC) is incorporated in Singapore since 1994. As Your Business Companion, we propose a range of services in Strategy, Investment and Management, focusing Health care and Life Science with expertise in ASEAN 's area. We are currently changing the platform of www.yourvietnamexpert.com, if any request, please, contact directly Dr Christian SIODMAK, business strategist, owner and CEO of SBC at christian.siodmak@gmail.com. Many thanks.
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