Vietnam maintained double-digit export growth last year, weathering the
global downturn extremely well, according to HSBC’s latest Trade Connection
Report which was released in Ho Chi Minh City on March 28.
HSBC noted that the country’s
export earnings in US dollars grew by 20 per cent, driven by telecoms,
plastics, clothing and apparels.
The report said the country’s GDP
growth of 5 percent a year remains sustainable in the medium term as the
growing domestic market boosts FDI, as tourism and agricultural exports help
finance industrial upgrading, and as new power plants end the perennial energy
shortages.
It added that a widening range of
industrial exports, higher reserves and a larger home market may reduce the
volatility of growth.
According to the bank, by 2030,
China will have overtaken the US as Vietnam’s largest trading partner. Exports
to Asia (excluding Japan) are forecast to grow by more than 15 per cent a year
out to 2020.
However, the US and Japan will
remain the key sources of demand for Vietnam and together with China will be
the country’s top three export markets in 2030.
Bangladesh, India, Indonesia and
Malaysia will also be fast growing export partners for Vietnam.
Plans to expand the ASEAN Free
Trade Agreement to zero tariffs on all goods by 2015 will be an additional
factor supporting Vietnam’s trade with other economies in the region over the
medium term.
Vietnam’s exports are largely
weighted towards clothing and apparel, textiles and wood manufactures and
telecoms equipment and these are key sectors which the advanced economies tend
to need to import in quantity.
Vietnam is well located to take
advantage of emerging Asia’s undisputed status as the most dynamic trading
region in the world. China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Bangladesh and the
Republic of Korea will all be among the ten fastest growing export routes over
the next twenty years.
Export growth to Europe
(excluding Russia) is expected to average almost 10 percent a year from 2013 to
2020. Export growth to Australia, New Zealand and Oceania will pick up sharply
in the longer term and will average 10 percent from 2016 to 2020.
Exports to Latin America will
grow by an average of more than 10 percent from 2013-20, with trade routes to
Brazil proving particularly dynamic.
Jasmine Lau, an HSBC executive,
praised Vietnam’s efforts in containing inflation, stabilising the exchange
rate, and settling bad debts.
She said Vietnam is a potential
market and one of the bank’s priorities in its business strategy.
VIR/VNA
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