Indonesia’s fiscal and monetary authorities
have confirmed they are now drafting regulations that aim to put the brakes on
the country’s alarmingly rapid growth of external leverage.
For the
fiscal authority, there has been a year-long “concern” on the growth of
Indonesia’s debts both in the government and the private sector, Finance
Minister Chatib Basri said.
Chatib
said that the government would draft a standard operating procedure for
state-owned enterprises (SOEs) wishing to borrow US dollars for their
operations. In such cases, plans from any SOE wanting to tap overseas funds
would be discussed thoroughly at the Office of the Coordinating Economic
Minister before being granted approval.
“Which
SOE could get foreign funding would depend on the approval discussed at the
Office of the Coordinating Economic Minister,” he said recently.
“For
instance, if we notice that an SOE already has too much foreign debt that could
potentially spell trouble, then it ought to hold back [from borrowing
dollars],” Chatib added.
Indonesia’s
debt-to-service ratio (DSR), an indicator of total foreign debts compared to
export earnings, stood at 46.3 per cent in the first quarter of this year,
according to the latest foreign debt statistics published by Bank Indonesia
(BI).
This
means that, of the total dollar-denominated income that the country gets from
exports, about half would be used to pay foreign debts.
For
comparison, the present level of DSR has already doubled since President Susilo
Bambang Yudhoyono began his second term in 2009, when the ratio stood at a mere
21.1 per cent.
The
government and BI are currently conducting a joint study on the possible
implementation of a debt-to-equity ratio (DER) regulation, which would oblige
private sector organisations to achieve a certain safe level of the ratio if
they want to borrow dollars, according to Deputy Finance Minister Bambang
Brodjonegoro.
To
ensure that the regulation would not hamper local firms’ growth, it would have
different DER thresholds for certain industries, given the fact that some
business segments may need heavier leverage than others, Bambang explained.
Indonesia’s
external leverage has been on the upward trajectory in recent years as local
companies, taking advantage of the low interest-rate environment globally, have
begun to tap overseas markets for dollars to finance their robust business
expansion.
However,
the rising foreign leverage poses the risk of liquidity mismatch, which could
have a systemic impact on the economy. The financial calamity that occurred in
Indonesia in 1997-1998 was triggered by the bankruptcy of many local private
firms unable to pay their dollar-denominated debts, after the rupiah weakened
significantly — to as high as 16,000 per dollar at the time.
Rating
agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) specifically warned Indonesia over its
rising external leverage, citing such an economic risk as the major reason
behind its refusal to grant the country an investment grade status. In April,
S&P warned that the external indebtedness of Indonesia’s private sector was
already “much larger” than other countries with a similar credit rating to
Indonesia.
Last
week, BI released statistics noting that Indonesia’s total debts increased 9.7
per cent year-on-year to touch US$283.7 billion as of May. The debt level — 60
per cent of which came from the private sector — might warrant “continuous
vigilance” from policymakers, BI cautioned.
Satria
Sambijantoro
Business & Investment Opportunities
Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd (SBC) is incorporated
in Singapore since 1994.
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