For Indonesians, only two choices come on
Wednesday. The first candidate is an "ex-war commander" with a
chequered history of rights abuses, Prabowo Subianto. The second is Joko Widodo
or Jokowi, the charismatic governor of Jakarta with an untested record in
national affairs.
At this
moment, who will emerge a decisive winner nobody really knows. This
known-unknown scenario has kept the world's third largest democracy hanging in
the balance and other less democratic Asean members watching without blinking
an eye.
Until
last weekend, most published polls placed Jokowi ahead of Prabowo by a narrow
margin — some?thing which Indonesian political pundits thought could produce a
surprise on polling day. Prabowo's popularity has gone up in recent weeks since
the Jokowi "fever" broke out last August. During the general election
in May, most polls predicted the Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle or
PDI-D would win at least 25 per cent of the votes, but that didn't happen. It
got less than 20 per cent. This time, the poll forecasts must not be taken
seriously - just a rough indicator of public mood. In these coming few days,
what happens on the ground
and in
the cyber world of social media could be a decisive factor.
As in
other developing countries, a highly contested election could easily lead to
money politics as a means to ensure votes. Indonesian politics has not been
devoid of vote-buying especially in kampong areas. An Indonesian journalist
joked that the only thing flowing without interruption in his country today was
the money trail.
Indonesian
politics today is so divisive due to the fierce presidential race with only two
candidates contesting — Prabowo or Jokowi. In the past, more candidates
contested and in the last presidential election there was a clear winner. So
the campaign energy was diverse, not concentrating so intensely on
personalities as in the current situation.
To win
this week, all types of smear tactics have been adopted involving race,
religion and family backgrounds. The worst were racist comments of Jokowi's
background -claiming him to be a Singaporean of Chinese descent - and the
appointment of Basuki "Ahok" Tjahaja Purnama as acting governor. In
the world's largest Muslim nation, it is odd that being a Muslim or not can be
used as a political benchmark, so is being a non-Javanese.
Fortunately,
Indonesian political rallies comprise moderate crowds. They do not come out and
face-off in large numbers like Thai supporters often do. But some followers of Prabowo
are hardline and pretty fierce. In general, they are not as organised as their
Thai counterparts who often turn out with decent food, premier entertainment
and good sanitation.
So far,
no major conflicts have been reported between the two camps, except one in
Yogjakarta on June 26, when overzealous supporters of Prabawo briefly clashed
with those of Jokowi. The incident, which injured several persons, was blamed
on bad police control, which failed to respond quickly. However, as the polling
date draws near, the political temperature goes up. Last week, Jokowi's
supporters attacked the headquarters of TV One owned by Prabowo's coalition
partner, Aburizal Bakrie, chief of the Golkar Party.
Interestingly,
the real campaign is being fought in traditional and new media battlefields.
Both sides have used all media, including cartoons, with a heavy focus on
social media in spreading and countering rumours and insults against the
opponents. With 250 million people, including active netizens on the widely
used and accessible Facebook and Twitter, this presidential race has relied on
information and propaganda management rather than serious policy platforms.
Essential issues affecting the people's and country's future are not being
seriously discussed as they should be, despite the five debates for all
candidates.
Since
the 1998 democratisation, Indonesian media has been free and diversified.
Conglomerates have taken ownership of media outlets which display their
proprietors' preferences and choices in this election. Compared to the previous
presidential run, this time campaigning via social media is tense and can swing
votes among young first-timers and the undecided — which could be 20 per cent
of the electorate, according to some. Under these circumstances, the respected
Jakarta Post decided on Saturday to endorse Jokowi — the first time in the
paper's 31-year history it has done this.
Within
the Indonesian context, the proliferation of social media has had a positive
outcome — it acts as a safety valve to air dissenting views and outrageous
claims, deterring them being sounded off in public, which could easily lead to
clashes and violence (as in the case of Thailand).
As the
world focuses on Indonesia's democratic potential within a secularised Muslim
environment, Asean members are more interested in the immediate consequences of
this week's winner on their future. For the past decade, Indonesia has made
Asean more open. It has also provided a forward-looking leadership for Asean,
strengthening political and security cooperation among members and raising
international profiles.
With
the Asean Community approaching in less than 540 days, any new Indonesian
leader with a strong domestic and nationalistic agenda could affect the ongoing
community-building efforts and economic integration. Jakarta's record on
economic liberalisation under the Asean Economic Community's blueprint has not
been impressive in comparison with more commendable efforts in other
non-economic pillars.
Albeit
these shortcomings, Indonesia's democracy has a positive spin for Asean as a
whole, as the country has lifted itself from one of the lowest standard bearers
to the grouping's prime mover.
Kavi
Chongkittavorn
Business & Investment Opportunities
Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd (SBC) is incorporated
in Singapore since 1994.
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