A massive campaign for constitutional reform
has ended, with uncertain results.
YANGON—On
July 19 – Martyr’s Day in Myanmar – the National League for Democracy (NLD)
wound up an eight-week campaign calling for changes to the country’s
constitution. The campaign was launched on May 27 on the back of a series of
colorful public rallies in Yangon and other cities. Since then, the NLD, along
with former student leaders of the 1988 uprising against military rule, have
held further demonstrations across the country and gathered millions of
signatures in support of constitutional amendments ahead of next year’s
election.
At a
rally in Magwe region on July 12, NLD leader and Nobel laureate Aung San Suu
Kyi urged members of the military to join the petition and win back the trust
and respect of Myanmar’s people. “For the future and stability of democracy in
the nation, a good relationship is needed not only between races but also among
people from the military and the civilians,” Suu Kyi told the crowd.
The
campaign’s main focus is on changing Article 436 of the military-drafted
constitution, which requires more than three-quarters of the parliament votes
to approve any amendments. Since the constitution reserves quarter of the seats in the lower house for
military candidates, and another half are held by the military-backed, ruling
Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), Article 436 effectively gives
the Myanmar military a de facto veto over any changes. The NLD also hopes to
alter Article 59(f), which bars any candidate from the presidency whose spouse,
children, or parents are foreign citizens, barring Suu Kyi from holding the
nation’s top office. (The NLD leader’s children, like her late husband Michael
Aris, are British citizens).
By the
end of June the party claimed it had collected 3 million signatures, and
announced that the full number would be announced at the end of July. The
petitions will then be forwarded to the president, commander-in-chief and
parliament. But as the NLD’s campaign comes to an end, it remains uncertain
whether it will succeed in forcing concrete changes in time for next year’s
election, which the NLD is well-placed to win.
In
mid-June, a parliamentary review committee charged with exploring changes to
the charter voted against amending Article 59(f), dealing a blow to Suu Kyi’s
presidency hopes. There have since been reports that the 31-member committee is
open to changing Article 436 – even rumors that the NLD may have agreed to
forego one for the other – but details about the extent and timing of the
change remain vague.
Analysts
say Myanmar’s constitutional conundrum has to be seen in the context of the
government’s “seven-step roadmap” from military dictatorship to a sort of
hybrid constitutional autocracy – what the old junta termed “discipline
flourishing multi-party democracy.” Penned by the former ruling generals, and
passed by a flawed referendum in 2008, the constitution was designed
specifically to protect the military’s interests during the crafted reform
process that has allowed Myanmar to shrug off its status as an international
pariah. “It serves to preserve their power and influence, not to guarantee
democratic principles,” said David Scott Mathieson, a Myanmar researcher for
Human Rights Watch. “It’s an artfully constructed document to preserve military
interests and perpetuate a softer form of military rule.”
The
document is filled with safeguards against any outbreak of “undisciplined”
democracy. In addition to reserving a quarter of the seats in the lower house
for the military, it also allows the commander-in-chief of the Tatmadaw to
appoint key ministers and gives the military to right to act decisively
during times of “emergency.” All these
provisions are in turn controlled by the constitutional master key: Article
436.
In
facing down the military, the NLD and 88 Generation activists now face a
circular challenge: how to encourage an entrenched military-political complex
to make concessions that run directly counter to its long-term political
interests. “Aung San Suu Kyi has enormous popular support. But you know, power
comes out of the gun’s barrel,” said Myat Thu, the founder of the Yangon School
of Political Science. “Article 436 is the entrance to the amendment of the
whole constitution. The Burmese military knows that very clearly, so they will
resist to the end.”
So far
that’s exactly how government officials have responded to the NLD campaign.
Burma’s presidential spokesman Ye Htut recently lashed out at the U.S.
government for throwing its support behind changes to the constitution. “It is
not the concern of the United States. It is inappropriate for us to tell how
the US should amend their constitution and likewise the US should not dictate
how it should be amended,” he told The Associated Press. Other senior officials
have warned Suu Kyi against “challenging the army” or provoking “public
disorder,” and say the decision of issue of constitutional reform should be
left to the parliamentary committee, whose 31 members are drawn overwhelmingly
from the USDP and the military.
As
leader of the NLD and during years of repression, the graceful and iconic Suu
Kyi became a symbol of democratic resistance to the Tatmadaw. Mathieson said
there was previously an expectation – or a hope – that Suu Kyi’s engagement
with President Thein Sein, a former general, would yield some minor
constitutional concessions, or some voluntary diminution of their power. But if
the current standoff lays bare the crafted nature of Myanmar’s reforms, it also
suggests strict limits to Suu Kyi’s moral power in the face of a deeply
entrenched military apparatus.
“I
think at the moment you’d have to say the likelihood of [significant
amendments] is very small,” he said. “[The constitution] was fifteen years in
planning, and they’re not going to start diluting it any time soon. And if they
do, it won’t be until after the 2015 election, when they’re sure that all their
interests are intact.” Thiha Saw, editorial director of the Myanmar Times
newspaper, agreed that the military had time on its side. “The election is next
year, it’s drawing closer and closer … They could drag on the process,” he
said.
After
half a century at the helm of Myanmar’s politics, the Tatmadaw would probably
be an inevitable ingredient of the democratic mix in the run-up to the 2015
election – and beyond. “We realize that we cannot put aside the army in
politics, for the time being,” said Ko Ko Gyi, a former student activist and
current secretary general of the 88 Generation Peace and Open Society. In the
meantime, the NLD and its 88 Generation allies will have to walk a tightrope,
pressing their demand for constitutional change while doing enough to reassure
the military that it would retain an important national role in any future
system. With Myanmar now running up against the built-in limitations of the
military’s reform plan, Ko Ko Gyi said the process would be necessarily slow.
“Gradually we will try to negotiate,” he said, “and struggle to be democratic.”
Sebastian
Strangio
Business & Investment Opportunities
Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd (SBC) is incorporated
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