MANILA
- The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has
revised downwards its growth forecast for Southeast Asia this year as
country-specific factors weigh in.
In its
Asian Development Outlook Supplement, the Manila-based lender has cut its
initial growth outlook for the region from 5 percent to 4.7 percent.
For the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations-5 (which include the Philippines,
Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam), ADB revised down its gross domestic
product (GDP) forecast from 5.2 percent to 4.8 percent.
According
to ADB, recent data show that economic expansion has softened in the region as
growth prospevcts "faltered" in Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam.
In tha
case of Indonesia, the first-quarter numbers indicated that growth slowed to
5.2 percent on the back of soft external demand, low commodity prices and
temporary ban on exports of selected minerals tempered recovery in net exports.
Thailand,
on the other hand, is being dragged down by its political deadlock, affecting
local demand and tourism. Its economy contracted by 0.6 percent in the first
three months of the year and likely it may have contracted again in the second quarter.
The
adjustment in Vietnam's growth outlook was hinged on the tensions between Hanoi
and Beijing and their effects on economic activity, including the factory
riots.
"As
the factors slowing growth in 2014 are expected to be temporary, the forecast
of growth at 5.4% in 2015 is maintained," ADB said.
Growth
forecast for other Southeast Asian countries like the Philippines are still in
line with ADB's 2014 expectations.
For
this year, the lender is expecting a 6.4-percent growth for the Philippines,
which would eventually accelerate to 6.7 percent in 2015, on the back of the
growth in foreign direct investments, achived through the help of increased
confidence in the country's fundamentals and reforms.
Likha
Cuevas-Miel
Business & Investment Opportunities
Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd (SBC) is incorporated
in Singapore since 1994.
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