The Philippines is looking into a more
comprehensive defence pact with Japan that will allow Manila to seek Tokyo's
aid in the event of an attack, an arrangement that analysts say may lead to a
"new Cold War" in the South China Sea.
Presidential
spokesman Edwin Lacierda told reporters yesterday that "we are looking
into those arrangements", when asked whether the Philippines would ask for
Japan's help should its forces come under attack.
Japanese
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Tuesday announced a re-interpretation of the
country's pacifist Constitution that will free its military to play a more
assertive role for the first time in more than 60 years.
"I
think everyone who has a stake in regional stability would certainly support
any action that would move towards promoting peace in the region.
"Clearly,
our belief is that Japan, by revisiting its Constitution, enables it to meet
its international obligations, that is - in the case of the South China Sea -
to promote and to ensure peace and stability in the region," Lacierda
said.
During
his one-day working visit to Japan last month, Philippine President Benigno
Aquino backed Abe's plan to expand the scope of Japan's armed forces,
highlighting a shift in attitude in the region as Asia adjusts to an
increasingly assertive China pushing its territorial claims.
"If
Abe will have his way, he will establish a military alliance with the
Philippines and Vietnam, a Tokyo- Manila-Hanoi axis," said political
analyst Alex Magno.
Magno
added that the Philippines would want "something that looks like our
mutual defence treaty with the United States".
That
treaty, signed in 1951, requires the US to come to the Philippines' aid if it
is attacked.
Although
US President Barack Obama had said the treaty was "iron clad", he did
not say outright that US troops would come to the Philippines' aid if China
attacks reefs and islets in the South China Sea that the Philippines occupies.
Analysts
do not expect the US to go that far, considering its huge economic ties with
China, and the war fatigue that has settled among Americans after decades of
costly wars in the Middle East.
University
of the Philippines international studies professor Amado Mendoza Jr said Japan
would be less ambiguous.
"Japan
will commit to the defence of sea lanes. They have blue-water capability. They
have air power. I see a situation where they have convoys patrolling the South
China Sea with the Philippine Navy," he said.
That,
he said, "will precipitate a new Cold War in the South China Sea".
China
lays claim to nearly all of the South China Sea, creating conflict with the
Philippines and Vietnam. Other claimants are Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan.
Magno
said it is unlikely that China will be intimidated by a Tokyo- Manila-Hanoi
axis.
"The
Philippines is betting too much on its own mutual defence treaty with Japan.
It's almost delusional to think that we can actually enhance our own defence
posture by relying on Japan," he said.
Raul
Dancel
Business & Investment Opportunities
Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd (SBC) is incorporated
in Singapore since 1994.
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