Both the Ukrainian and Russian armed forces
have a track record of accidentally destroying civilian airliners: back in
1983, the Soviet military - as it was then known - shot down a South Korean
civilian Boeing 747 jumbo jet, while the Ukrainians accidentally downed a
Russian civilian airliner in 2001.
So, at
least in theory, either side may be held responsible for the destruction of
Malaysian Airlines' MH17 flight.
Still,
all available circumstantial evidence points to Russian culpability for this
latest tragedy.
The key
issue at play here is altitude. The Malaysian Airlines passenger jet was flying
at approximately 10,000m when it went missing.
That is
far above the maximum intercept height for surface-to-air missiles which have
previously been recorded in the hands of separatists, namely the Igla
shoulder-fired rocket, and the Strela-10 vehicle.
Several
weapons, and especially the BUK missile system manufactured by Russia, is
capable of hitting aircraft at this height.
At the
end of last month, ethnic Russian rebels in Ukraine claimed to have
"captured" a few BUK ground-to-air missile systems from the Ukrainian
military, although the Ukrainians never reported any such losses.
The
missiles, also known in the West as the SA11, are big but highly mobile, and
can reach to altitudes of 14km.
Yet,
even if the rebels' claim to posses such weapons is correct, it would be
impossible for them to use the missiles without the complex radar systems which
pinpoint a target and which ensure that a missile reaches its objective.
And
such systems are only available to the Russian and Ukrainian governments.
Ukraine
has no reason to shoot down any jet, whether by accident or design; throughout
the current crisis, Ukrainian air defence systems were never activated, for the
simple reason that the rebels opposing the Ukrainian government have no
aircraft of their own, so the Ukrainian missiles would be useless.
But
Russia has every reason to use its anti-aircraft systems in support of ethnic
Russian rebels and has already been identified as being behind the destruction
of at least 6 previous Ukrainian military jets and helicopters; indeed, at one
point in May Russia announced that it was imposing a "no-fly-zone"
over the bit of Ukraine where the destruction of the MH17 flight now took
place.
Furthermore,
at about the same time as the Malaysian airliner went down yesterday afternoon
Ukraine time, and in exactly the same area of Ukraine, Igor Strelkov, the local
commander of the ethnic Russian rebels, announced triumphantly in
Russian-language social websites that his "soldiers" had downed a
Ukrainian transport plane.
No such
plane has been damaged; the suspicion is that the rebels shot the Malaysian
aircraft instead.
The
offending internet posting was quickly withdrawn, providing even more
circumstantial evidence that the boast may be related to the destruction of the
MH17 flight.
Given
the fact that scores of United States and other western countries' intelligence
satellites are already hovering over Ukraine, it is only a matter of time
before electronic intelligence will be able to pinpoint with a high level of
certainty where the missile came from; Nato already published earlier this week
video clips purporting to show previous firings of Russian missiles into
Ukrainian territory with the intention of hitting Ukrainian aircraft.
Should
such evidence become available, Russian President Vladimir Putin has little
hope of disassociating his country from the rebels, since the claim that the
rebels could operate such sophisticated missile systems on their own will carry
to credibility.
Another
round of sanctions against Russia will, therefore, become inevitable.
And
this time, most of the European countries which hitherto proved reluctant to
impose sanctions will go along with their imposition.
The
tragedy may also prompt the Ukrainian authorities to launch an all-out
offensive against the rebels, this time with the full encouragement of the
West. Either way, a crisis in a little-known corner of Europe has now claimed
victims worldwide.
Jonathan
Eyal
Business & Investment Opportunities
Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd (SBC) is incorporated
in Singapore since 1994.
No comments:
Post a Comment