By the end of this century, 20 per cent of
Vietnam's business hub Ho Chi Minh City will be inundated and 39 per cent of
the Mekong Delta will be submerged, according to a Vietnamese study.
Such a
prediction might not be so accurate. The study only used the map and assumed
that the ocean would rise some centimetres, but could not say exactly how high.
However
the climate change phenomenon in this century would have some severe
implications for the Mekong Delta and the livelihoods of the local people.
The
"Mekong Delta Plan: Long Term Vision and Strategy", conducted by
Vietnam's Natural Resource and Environment Ministry and the Dutch government,
indicates that climate is already changing the delta, which ranks among the top
five in the world most likely to be severely affected by climate change,
according to the report, which was released last December.
Despite
limited precise meteorological and hydrological data, trends in temperatures,
rainfall and sea levels are noticeable. Together with rising temperatures and
shifting rainfall patterns, the sea level is expected to have a huge impact on
the physical condition of the Mekong Delta, according to the report.
While
climate change alone is harsh enough, the environmental problem in the Mekong
Delta is also compounded by hydropower projects upstream. The two factors would
amplify hydrological effects and changes in the delta.
Such
changes would produce effects on people, their health, livelihoods and
prosperity. In the flat area of the delta, the predicted sea level rise can
result in a large area of |permanent and more frequently inundated coastal
plains.
Rice
production, in particular, would be affected through excessive flooding in the
tidally inundated areas and longer flood periods in the central part of the
delta.
Local
farmers interviewed by The Nation felt the changes over the past years. The
changing rainfall, temperature and flooding took a toll on their production.
Off-season
rain - rain in the dry season, created by climate change - would destroy
farming in the dry season. Chilli and onion plants would be damaged if it rains
in the dry season.
Local
people in Can Tho were concerned but did not panic as many of them said they
can adjust production and crops in response to the changes. The water level in
rivers obviously fluctuates every year, said orchard worker Vo Van Co.
"Of
course we can adjust, but it is difficult for all of us to predict the level of
water in each crop," he said.
The
Vietnamese government has experience in preparing plans for socio-economic
development. Authorities have conducted numerous studies to cope with the
environmental changes.
Water
governance in the Mekong Delta has improved over the years to meet the need.
Projects are under implementation to prevent impacts from the changes in the
rice bowl of Vietnam.
However,
local ecologists said the country still had no vision or systematic plan. While
climate changes have no administrative boundary, provincial authorities in the
areas are working separately and even completing with each other.
They
cannot address common challenges and work together. With the Mekong Delta plan,
this current plan and coming plan in the future try to bring all approaches to
work together, they said.
Supalak
Ganjanakhundee
Business & Investment Opportunities
Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd (SBC) is incorporated
in Singapore since 1994.
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