The ongoing maritime dispute between China
and Vietnam has served to reinforce and solidify distrust among Vietnamese
The
Chinese oil rig at the heart of the maritime dispute between China and Vietnam
is expected to depart soon from its contentious position near the Paracel
Islands. China National Offshore Oil Corporation, which operates the oil rig,
deployed HD-981 to disputed waters off the coast of Vietnam in May as part of a
resource exploration mission.
Relations
between the two countries soon deteriorated following the placement of the oil
rig. An outbreak of riots in Vietnam killed two Chinese workers and the
resulted in the destruction of Taiwanese and South Korean factories. Chinese
Coast Guard and Vietnamese vessels repeatedly clashed around the oil rig.
HD-981
was not expected to remain in place for long with CNOOC announcing early on
that the oil rig’s mission would conclude in mid-August. However, the early
departure could suggest an attempt by China to amend relations. According to
CNOOC, the removal is due to its having detected signs of oil and gas and
returning home for assessment. Alternatively, concerns from China that the
dispute might invite the United States and European Union to send naval vessels
to the area as observers may have encouraged Beijing to pull back.
Whatever
the reasons, the departure of HD-981 may, at least for the time being, reduce
tensions between the two neighbors. However remote the possibility of an open
conflict between China and Vietnam might have been, the potential for violence
remained a concern if the dispute was allowed to persist.
In his
recent interview on China and the military of Vietnam with The New York Times,
Lyle Goldstein, a professor with the China Maritime Studies Institute at the
Naval War College, does not mince words in responding to this simple question:
Can Vietnam compete militarily with China?
Despite
upgrades and improvements to Vietnam’s military, Vietnam remains at a
disadvantage in any potential sea and/or air conflict due to a lack of
experience and training. History favors Vietnam when fighting is confined to
the ground. However, the mere size of China and modern upgrades to its military
suggest that this advantage is no longer a given.
Any
military conflict would favor China, but then neither side possesses an
appetite for such conflict, albeit for different reasons. Vietnam has no desire
to bring war and the destruction that follows to its doorstep and China has no
desire to give the United States reason to intervene any more than it has in
the region. China’s irritation at America’s pivot to Asia-Pacific is not helped
if war breaks out.
Vietnamese independence
At the
core of this spat was not only the presence of HD-981 near the Paracels,
claimed by China and Vietnam, and within disputed waters, but also the
perception of ordinary Vietnamese of being bullied by their much larger
neighbor. For many Vietnamese, China’s actions could not be ignored.
Vietnam
endured nearly a thousand years of Chinese rule. Tellingly, this period is
often referred to as China’s domination of Vietnam and was marked by revolts by
revered heroes such as the two Trưng Sisters in AD 40 and Lê Lợi in 1428.
Despite the cultural imprint left on Vietnam by China (although French
colonialism from the 19th to 20th century saw the adoption of the Latin
alphabet over Chinese calligraphy), these two countries have rarely seen
eye-to-eye.
For all
of China’s assistance to Communist-led North Vietnam during its war against the
United States and South Vietnam, border and maritime skirmishes continue
between Vietnam and China. The most violent of these skirmishes was known as
the Sino–Vietnamese War, occurring on February 17, 1979 only a month after
Vietnam invaded Cambodia and overthrew the Chinese-supported Khmer Rouge.
Both
sides suffered heavy casualties but claimed victory in the war that barely
lasted a month, although Vietnam remained in Cambodia until 1989.
It
would have been one thing for another country to place their oil rig near the
coast of Vietnam, but for that country to be China merely affirmed the
suspicions of some Vietnamese who believe Beijing has never let go of their
country. These suspicions are made worse by the Vietnamese people’s distrust of
their government, regarding it as corrupt and potentially “selling out” Vietnam
to China, to say nothing of gross human rights violations.
Vietnamese
nationals and those living abroad cherish the independence of their home
nation. It is a point of pride that a country as small as Vietnam has remained
independent in the face of repeated attempts of colonization. But for overseas
Vietnamese, and perhaps equally for many Vietnamese nationals, Vietnam’s
Communist leaders have proven unfit to govern the country.
If
nothing else, the oil rig incident may inspire Vietnamese private citizens and
certain public officials to change the way in which the country has operated,
to find new ways for Vietnam to assert itself before China and on the world
stage.
While
the removal of HD-981 may de-escalate the situation around the Paracels,
Vietnam and China will continue to butt heads over the same and similar
maritime disputes. If indeed HD-981 found signs of oil and gas, it is unlikely
that Beijing would turn a blind eye to this discovery and could return to the
area in due time.
The
role, then, for Vietnam’s leaders is how best to respond to such a
confrontation, to walk that most delicate line of asserting Vietnamese
independence and preserving territorial integrity, while at the same time
maintaining delicate relations with its much more powerful neighbor.
Khanh
Vu Duc
Khanh Vu Duc is a lawyer and part-time law
professor at the University of Ottawa. His research covers Vietnamese politics,
international relations and international law.
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