Japan - Current nuclear debate to set nation's course for decades

OSAKA — First in a six-part series about major sources of renewable energy in Japan and the prospects for their future use and development

The disaster at the Fukushima No. 1 power plant has not only demolished the myth that atomic power is safe, it's sparked an unprecedented nationwide debate on the merits of abandoning it for renewable energy sources.

The debate centres around one fundamental question: Is it better to continue to rely on nuclear power or is it time to embrace renewable energies like solar, geothermal, wind, hydro and biomass? Whichever side wins will determine the nature of Japan's energy mix — and its economy — for decades to come.

At the moment, political attention and public sympathy appears to lie with renewable energies. Former Prime Minister Naoto Kan told the world in May Japan would generate 20 percent of its electricity from renewable energy sources by the 2020s.

As of 2009, Japan was only generating about 9 percent of its electricity from renewable energy sources. That figure drops to about 1.1 percent if you take away hydropower.

But new Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has said he still sees some sort of future for nuclear power, raising questions about how committed he may be to supporting a shift to renewable energy.

A law coming into force in July 2012 requires utilities to buy power generated by renewable sources. Its goal is to generate 30,000 megawatts of electricity by 2022, mostly through increased use of wind, solar, geothermal, and mini-hydro and biomass. Those three energies currently produce about 6,500 megawatts of power.

The law includes a feed-in tariff provision over a set time period to make renewables more competitive with fossil fuels. Deciding a purchase price, as well as a time period, is now the responsibility of Noda's government. While reports in early September suggested the final tariff may range between ¥20 and ¥40 per kilowatt-hour, the matter is still being discussed.

Yet shutting down even some of Japan's 54 commercial reactors, which provide an average of 30 percent of the nation's electricity, and replacing them with renewable energy is a controversial idea that has excited many and terrified others, especially those in the so-called nuclear village of pronuclear power politicians, bureaucrats, utility executives, academics and media.

While recent media polls show that up to 70 percent of the public favors at least gradually phasing out nuclear power, its defenders would rather fight than switch. They're asking if Japan can afford, in both an economic and basic survival sense, to leave nuclear power behind.

Any discussion on electric power generation in Japan begins, and often ends, with three words: safe, secure and stable. They have long been a mantra, especially among proponents of coal, oil, gas and nuclear power, uttered when the suggestion of shifting from traditional to renewable energy sources is raised.

In the case of pronuclear utilities, businesses, government officials, academics and media assert that because Japan has to import about 96 percent of its energy, it's imperative that a long-term energy policy consist of the right energy mix, one that is cost effective as well as safe, secure and stable.

The government claims nuclear power is only ¥5 to ¥6 per kilowatt-hour, compared with ¥49/kwh for solar, ¥10 to ¥14/kwh for large wind farms, and ¥8 to ¥13/kwh for hydro plants.

But renewable energy advocates note calculations by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry for nuclear power do not include waste disposal or liability costs in accidents — costs that the customer ultimately has to bear.

Tetsunari Iida, of the Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies, estimates that if these costs are included, the real cost of nuclear power rises to as high as ¥15/kwh.

In addition, the cost of some renewable energies, especially solar, has declined worldwide in recent years thanks to innovations in technology. Given that Japan is now debating what kind of energy it will be using by midcentury, nuclear power critics ask, is it really wise to assume the price for renewable energies will be higher than nuclear in 2020 or 2030, let alone 2050?

Over the past six months, much of the energy debate has focused on pronuclear METI's role. At a meeting of renewable-energy experts in June, Kan acknowledged that, although he had instructed METI to work hard to get the renewable energy bill passed, their actions had been slow.

"METI has long been negative about renewable energy in general as well as the feed-in tariff in particular. The ministry adopted (a 2010 solar energy) feed-in tariff not with the objective of diffusing renewable energy as much as possible, but, rather, with the objective of stalling progress as much as possible," wrote Andrew DeWit and Iida, in a 2011 report, "The 'Power Elite' and Environmental Energy Policy in Japan."

Since the quake, however, a growing number of private businesses and local governments aren't waiting on politicians and bureaucrats but forging ahead with plans to create a postnuclear power nation.

Softbank founder Masayoshi Son captured domestic, and international, media attention by asking whether Japan can afford not to invest in renewables. He has promised billions of yen from Softbank over the coming years for that purpose.

"By building megasolar farms throughout Japan on unused land, rooftops and elsewhere, it will be possible to generate an additional 100 million kilowatts of power," Son said in April when he announced his plan.

Sensing new economic opportunities and a chance to break the stranglehold that the quasi-monopolistic utilities have on power generation and supply, 36 governors have rushed to embrace Son's idea. Their enthusiasm shows that the actual question may not be whether renewable energies will replace nuclear power in the country as a whole, but which parts of Japan will lead the way in shifting from nuclear and even fossil fuels to renewables.

In particular, Kyushu and parts of the Tohoku region are far better positioned than Tokyo or the Kansai region to become Japan's leaders in natural electricity. A joint 2010 study by Chiba University's Kurasaka Environmental Research Laboratory and ISEP, based on 2009 figures, showed seven prefectures had higher self-sufficiency rates for renewable-energy electricity generation than the national average of 9 percent.

In addition, some 57 cities, towns and villages in Japan have 100 percent of their electricity supplied by renewables, including 10 municipalities in Nagano Prefecture.

"It's clear some regions of Japan have great potential for developing local natural resources that they could rely on for most, if not all, of their electricity needs. With adequate central and local government support, they could greatly reduce their need for fossil fuel or nuclear power," said Yoshiaki Koike, president of the Kuju Kanko Hotel in Oita Prefecture, which generates its own electricity from a small geothermal plant.

Yet, those involved with renewable and natural energies also point out it is not just price and availability that will determine Japan's renewable energy future. Due to opposition from utility companies and their political and bureaucratic allies, smart-grid systems have been slow to take off.

Introducing smart-grid technologies would, proponents say, create an incentive for renewable energy resources to become more prevalent, and would eventually reduce the overall cost of electricity.

However, the toughest challenge is not likely to be technological. Japanese firms in solar and geothermal technology are already world leaders, and many others are promoting smart-grid systems abroad. Nor is it likely to be financial. Despite the higher cost of some renewables, worldwide investment and research and technology development trends clearly favor renewable energies like solar, wind, and hydro over nuclear.

The real barrier appears to be political. Japan's nuclear power village remains influential among politicians and bureaucrats, despite broad public concern about nuclear power. Towns in rural prefectures with abundant natural energy resources and small businesses may be able to get political support to cut back on nuclear power and switch to renewable energies fairly easily. But urban-based large pronuclear industries and the utilities themselves remain politically influential and wary of renewable energies.

"We know the LDP has received huge amounts of money from the utilities over the years, and that the DPJ has been supported by the utilities' labor union. So, both parties are under the strong influence of the power companies," Liberal Democratic Party member Taro Kono, long a critic of his own party's embrace of nuclear power, told journalists in August.

Meanwhile, those living in cities like Tokyo, Nagoya and Osaka heavily rely on nuclear power as a cheap, plentiful energy source. Their views are likely to have a great, and possibly decisive, impact on the direction of Japan's energy policy.

Kono said that the pronuclear members of the Diet are simply waiting for the media hoopla over nonnuclear energies to recede.

"A lot of LDP members think the public will probably forget (about serious alternatives to nuclear power) in three to five years, and then we'll start building nuclear reactors again," he said.

For the moment, though, the potentials offered by renewable energies are very much on the minds of the public, businessmen like Son and some politicians. Each energy source presents its own advantages and challenges, but each is likely to play a key role in Japan's renewable energy future, regardless of what happens to its nuclear power plants.

ERIC JOHNSTON

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