Officials
have warned Filipinos to brace against the inconvenient truth of devastating
storms, flooding and drought unless policies and projects are put in place to
mitigate climate change.
Science undersecretary Graciano Yumul said in
the next 20 to 50 years, the Philippines would find “the dry seasons drier and
the wet seasons wetter”.
“With the climate change scenario, we will see
more of this as a frequent reality,” Yumul said in an interview. “What we used
to consider as abnormal we should now consider as normal,” he noted.
Scientists describe the phenomenon as any
distinct changes in weather patterns, such as temperature, rainfall, wind and
snow over a long period of time.
A major factor is global warming—the increase
in the oceanic and atmospheric temperatures of the planet resulting in the
melting of the ice caps and the rising of the seas.
The doomsday scenarios, depicted in Al Gore’s
2006 award-winning documentary, “An Inconvenient Truth”, are now playing out in
the Philippines.
The climatology division of the Philippine
Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) has
released the results of a study in 2010 concluding that climate data from 1960
to 2003 showed significant increases in the frequency of hot days and warm
nights in many areas of the country.
On the other hand, Pagasa observed that cooler
days had decreased. This trend mirrors the experience of other countries in
Southeast Asia, Pagasa said as it predicted more rains in the Philippines in
the coming decades.
“Reduction of rainfall is seen in March, April
and May in most provinces, while rainfall increases are likely in Luzon and
Visayas in 2020 and 2050 during the June-July-August and
September-October-November seasons,” the study said.
“Greater increase in rainfall is expected in
the provinces of Luzon (0.9-63 per cent) and Visayas (2-22 per cent) during the
peak southwest monsoon period (June-July-August).”
The number of days where temperature will
breach 35 degrees Celsius will also increase in 2020 and 2050, according to
Pagasa models.
Fishponds
Antonio Apostol Jr, chief geologist of the
Mines and Geosciences Bureau, said human activities in the regions that bore
the brunt of Typhoons “Pedring” and “Quiel” that struck the country last week
exacerbated the hazards and the risks.
The plains of Bulacan and Pampanga have always
been prone to floods, he said.
But the proliferation of fishponds and
aquaculture projects in the major waterways and in the coasts has slowed down
the flow of water from the typhoons and the dams, resulting in prolonged
flooding in residential and rural areas, Apostol said.
“These have a multiplier effect. So when the
water was released from the dams, the natural drainage could not handle it
anymore,” he said.
If there were no fishponds and garbage
clogging the canals and rivers of the region, “the outflow would have been
quicker”, Apostol said.
Floods and landslides will be more widespread
until officials realise that they should adapt to the changes in weather and
lessen their effects on the general population, Apostol and Yumul said.
“In other parts of the country, we are seeing
the same situation. In the cities of Butuan and Cotabato, there were floods,
too, because the rivers were clogged with water lilies,” Apostol said.
“In Cotabato, for instance, the industries
pollute the river there with nitrates which induce the growth of the lilies,”
he added.
Deforestation
Yumul also noted that deforestation had caused
flooding in areas which did not experience it in the past. “The deforestation
in the last 20, 50 years has come back to us,” he said.
Local officials, he said, should be more
prepared to respond to extreme weather events to prevent the loss of lives and
properties. “We’ve been telling them this for the last 10 years,” Yumul said.
Ricardo Calderon, regional executive director
of the Department of Environment and Natural Resources, said Sunday forest
cover in the western side of Nueva Ecija and Bulacan was still adequate. He
blamed flooding on heavy rainfall, the release of dam water and high tide.
“Although our forest cover may be high, the
trees could not retain the volume of water,” Calderon said.
He denied illegal logging was rampant,
disputing claims by Philippine Daily Inquirer informants that local officials
were collaborating with the activity.
‘Ondoy’ scenario
Senator Loren Legarda, chair of the Senate
climate change committee, said she called Yumul on Saturday night to ask
whether protocols in releasing water from dams in Central Luzon were observed
last week.
“The undersecretary said floods will be the
norm, that even if a typhoon brings a lighter volume of water, we can expect
this scenario happening now with Typhoons Pedring and Quiel. He said Pedring
brought only 30 per cent of Ondoy’s volume and yet the damage was nearly the
same,” Legarda told the Inquirer.
“That means if Tropical Storm ‘Ondoy’ happens
again, a typhoon with that huge amount of rain, we have to brace for even
deeper floods,” she warned.
Legarda said the confluence of events she had
been warning against for years had now led to disturbing images of helpless
residents waiting for help on rooftops, long lines of people queuing for
potable water, and whole barangays transformed into river extensions.
Soil erosion
The senator said that illegal logging,
slash-and-burn farming and quarrying in mountain areas would lead to soil
erosion and flooding.
Representatives of the Central Luzon dam
operators have been summoned to a hearing of the Senate on Monday afternoon.
“If (Pagasa) can predict the volume of
rainfall, dam operators can already release water in increments that would not
be destructive,” Legarda explained.
“If this kind of meteorological information
can be determined, say, one week before a typhoon arrives, does it not make
common sense that the dam operators would not release the water only on the day
it finally arrives,” she asked.
She noted that dam reportedly released water
on September 27, after Pedring struck.
Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile cautioned
that predicting rainfall would not be easy.
“The nature of calamity is that weather is
really unpredictable. Who really knows if the rainfall prediction is
correct? What if the amount of water
released by the dams based on Pagasa’s advisory could not be recovered from the
expected rains?” Enrile said.
He said that while the government could always
attempt to determine accountability, “we’ll have to find long-term solutions
and planning, instead of just prosecuting anybody.”
Cathy Yamsuan, Kristine L. Alave
Philippine Daily Inquirer
With reports from Tonette Orejas and Carmela
Reyes-Estrope, Inquirer Central Luzon
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