When
Thailand's recently elected Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra made her first
official visit to Cambodia last month, political commentators were quick to
hail the development as marking a new start in bilateral ties.
But while diplomatic relations have improved
since, a series of missteps, particularly the alleged tardiness of the new
government in dealing with the current floods, has seriously eroded the Prime
Minister's domestic standing. As a result, making the tough decisions necessary
to forge a lasting peace may not be possible.
Officials in Phnom Penh could hardly contain
their joy in July when Ms Yingluck's Pheu Thai party won the Thai general
election, replacing the government of former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.
The Pheu Thai party supports Ms Yingluck's
brother, Thaksin Shinawatra, a former prime minister and an ally of Cambodian
Prime Minister Hun Sen. Relations between Thailand and Cambodia during Mr
Abhisit's tenure as prime minister were marked by escalating tensions.
Large-scale border clashes in February and April near the 11th-century Preah
Vihear temple left at least 28 people dead. With a new and more friendly
government in power in Bangkok, the hope was that this dispute could be quickly
resolved.
Yet another dispute awaiting resolution
involves the ownership of undersea gas in the Gulf of Thailand. According to
Thai Energy Minister Pichai Naripthaphan, waters claimed by both countries
contain enough gas to supply Thailand's needs for the next 50 years. Bangkok
has become increasingly reliant on natural gas for power generation, and will
have to import large amounts of LNG in the coming years if it is unable to
develop the disputed area.
But while the economic argument in favour of
reconciliation is strong, the political imperative to do nothing is even
stronger. This is because any move Ms Yingluck makes to resolve outstanding
issues with Cambodia will inevitably involve making the sort of compromises
that her political opponents in Bangkok will denounce as a sellout of Thai
interests.
Since the military coup that ousted Ms
Yingluck's brother in 2006, tensions between Thaksin's supporters and
conservative factions associated with the military have intensified. A populist
government sympathetic to Thaksin was elected in December 2007, but lost power
several months later as a result of various political and legal manoeuverings.
Political tensions since then have remained
high. Thousands of Thaksin's supporters occupied a central Bangkok district
last year, prompting a military crackdown. Ms Yingluck's rise to power could
set the stage for yet more confrontations, possibly leading to the removal of
her government in yet another coup. The military certainly views her with deep
suspicion.
The new government was stumbling along even
before the floods. Foreign Minister Surapong Towijakchaikul, who is related by
marriage to the Shinawatra family, triggered an uproar last month when he made
a personal request through the Japanese Embassy for Thaksin to be issued a
special entry permit to visit Japan. Thaksin, who has been sentenced in
absentia to two years in prison in Thailand on corruption charges, has avoided
returning to the country. He travels on passports issued by Montenegro and
Nicaragua.
Thaksin's presence at a conference in Cambodia
not long after Ms Yingluck's visit was cited by critics as yet more evidence
that it is the former prime minister and not Ms Yingluck who is running the
Thai government.
Like the controversy over Thaksin and the conflict
with Cambodia, the floods have given opposition groups yet more opportunities
to question Ms Yingluck's capabilities. Tellingly, there is little coordinated
response to the crisis, with both the Bangkok governor and the military
operating flood control measures independently of the government.
The political constraints facing Cambodian
Prime Minister Hun Sen may be less serious. But they are significant
nonetheless. Fuelled by perceived Thai commercial and cultural domination,
anti-Thai sentiment has never been very far below the surface in Cambodia.
There were major anti-Thai riots in 2003.
Border tensions between Thailand and Cambodia
have declined since Ms Yingluck took power, with both sides making symbolic
gestures of peace. Trade and investment ties are likely to rebound, and
progress can also be expected regarding the fate of two Thai nationalists
jailed by Cambodia in January after being convicted of crossing into the
country illegally.
But the floods have also demonstrated Ms
Yingluck's vulnerability. Thailand does not have a government strong enough to
make the sort of potentially controversial compromises that would be necessary
to produce an agreement on the exploitation of the natural gas in the Gulf of
Thailand, or even an end to the long-running dispute involving the Preah Vihear
temple.
The resolution of these issues awaits a
resolution of the ongoing political impasse within Thailand itself.
Bruce Gale
The Straits Times
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