China - Beijing wary of overseas uncertainty

Internal stability has long been China's overriding concern, but President Hu Jintao's remarks at the recently concluded Apec summit showed that this has widened to include external stability.

At his meeting with Taiwan's representative Lien Chan on the sidelines of the summit in Honolulu, Mr Hu said both sides must abide by the 1992 Consensus in order to safeguard stability across the Taiwan Strait.

He also said that recognising the 1992 Consensus was a "precondition for cross-strait dialogues and the major foundation for peaceful development of cross-strait ties".

The consensus is a tacit understanding between Taiwan and China that there is only one China, but each side is free to interpret what "one China" means.

In reiterating this as a precondition for stability, the Chinese leader was signalling that Beijing would not rush reunification with Taiwan as long as the island did not deviate from the "one China" position. China regards Taiwan as a renegade province.

When he met Mr Donald Tsang, who will step down as Hong Kong Chief Executive next year, Mr Hu said that Hong Kong must brace itself for the looming global financial crisis to guarantee the long-term stability of China's special administrative region (SAR).

The subject came up again when Mr Hu told his American host, President Barrack Obama, that the countries must strengthen their bilateral cooperative relationship and maintain long-term stability in Sino-US ties. Key to enhancing their cooperative partnership was respect for each other's core interests, he said.

President Hu's concern with external stability is understandable given major developments taking place next year. Hong Kong will have a new leader. Presidential elections will be held in Taiwan as well as the US, which may result in changes in the leadership and government.

In China, a new generation of leaders will emerge in the second half of next year when the ruling Chinese Communist Party convenes its 18th national congress. Beijing will want to ensure a smooth handover of power, free of unwelcome surprises at home or abroad.

Over the longer term, however, China perceives the US as a potential threat to its stability. Hence Mr Hu's remarks directed at Hong Kong, Taiwan and the US.

First, the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, currently minus China, is - to many Chinese - an attempt by the US to challenge Chinese leadership in the Asia-Pacific region.

According to Professor Shen Jiru of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the TPP goes beyond economics. It has ideological underpinnings, with Washington trying to use American values to unify the Asia-Pacific region.

He pointed to the speech that US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made ahead of the Apec summit.

The US, she said, built trans-Atlantic relationships and institutions - such as Nato - with Europe after World War II. "Just as the United States played a central role in shaping that architecture across the Atlantic, we are now doing the same across the Pacific.

"The 21st century will be America's Pacific century."

China is even more concerned by what Republican presidential hopeful and former ambassador to China, Mr Jon Huntsman, said recently about how he would deal with China: 'We should be reaching out to our allies and constituencies within China.

"They're called the young people. They're called the Internet generation.

"There are 500 million Internet users in China and 80 million bloggers. And they are bringing about changes, the likes of which is going to take China down."

Mr Huntsman had several run-ins with the Chinese authorities before he left Beijing, including the time he was spotted near a pro-democracy gathering in February, when Beijing was especially nervous about the so-called jasmine revolutions spreading across the Middle East.

Regarding Taiwan, which China considers one of its core interests, Mrs Clinton called the island "an important security and economic partner", which Beijing sees as challenging Chinese sovereignty.

Mrs Clinton also flatly dismissed the possibility that the US would abandon Taiwan by dropping the nearly 30-year-old "six assurances", which help guide Washington on how to conduct relations with Taipei.

Beijing is also vexed by alleged US meddling in Hong Kong. On Sept 27, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs' office in the SAR issued a rare warning to the US Consulate-General to refrain from interfering in the city's domestic politics.

Based on information released by WikiLeaks, it accused the consulate of acting beyond its functions by making suggestions regarding Hong Kong's constitutional development and of holding "frequent meetings with selected people to conduct 'so-called opinion exchanges'".

All these developments have given China reason to be worried and to be suspicious of US words and actions. Hence, Mr Hu's preoccupation with stability not just within China but also outside it.

Ching Cheong

The Straits Times

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