Petaling Jaya (The Star/ANN) - Burma and
Malaysia. It's highly unusual for the two countries to be mentioned in the same
breath-all the more so given Burma's long-standing status as a
"pariah" state.
However, with the recent hotly debated
Peaceful Assembly Bill, it would appear that we Malaysians should be checking
more closely with what's going on in Burma.
Consider Tuesday's closing ceremony of the SEA
Games in Palembang and the extraordinary phrase emblazoned across the stadium:
"See you in Burma."
President Thein Sein has been cautiously
testing the waters, releasing political prisoners, relaxing media coverage and
allowing veteran politician Aung San Suu Kyi increased freedom of movement.
Moreover, last week's summit in Bali resulted
in the once hermit-like state being granted the chairmanship of the
increasingly influential Asean grouping in 2014.
What's more is that US Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton will be visiting in December-the highest-ranking American
official to do so in decades.
All these would have been unthinkable back in
2007, when the military regime's vicious crackdown on the Buddhist monk-led
"Saffron Revolution" all but confirmed Burma's pariah status.
At the same time, Burma's new Peaceful
Gathering and Procession Bill somewhat loosens restrictions on public meetings.
Thein Sein has been intervening more
dramatically, halting an unpopular Chinese-funded dam in Myitsone last
September after local protests.
Could
this be the signs of a responsive government?
The generals have also made overtures to end
Burma's decade-old civil war with the country's ethnic groups, like the Karen,
Shan and Wa.
What gives these initiatives credibility is
that they appear to have the support of Suu Kyi as well as her National League
of Democracy (NLD), which won the abrogated 1990 elections.
Indeed, NLD has since announced that it will
register as a political party and contest in upcoming by-elections.
A
"Myanmar Spring"?
There's every reason to be sceptical: Burma
has tried to open up in the past, only to see a sharp conservative reaction.
While the reforms are undoubtedly welcome, a
lot more needs to be done before the country is truly re-integrated into the
international community.
So
what's next for Burma?
Personally, I can think of no better
introduction to its history and possible future than my friend Thant Myint-U's
two books.
Grandson of the celebrated UN
secretary-general U Thant, Myint-U in 2007 published "The River of Lost
Footsteps: A Personal History of Burma", followed by this year's
"Where China Meets India: Burma and the New Crossroads of Asia".
In "The River of Lost Footsteps",
Myint-U weaves Burma's glorious but tragic history into his family narrative.
It chronicles the many conflicts between the
nation's ethnic groups as well as attempts by foreign powers to impose order.
It's hardly a cheerful read, but one is
treated to the stoicism of Burma's heroes, including independence hero Aung San
and his daughter Syu Kyi, the colourful post-colonial Prime Minister U Nu as
well as U Thant.
Myint-U was fortunate enough to know or
interview many of his subjects personally and indeed the book's strength is its
intimate feel.
Where China Meets India is a more geopolitical
analysis.
It traces China and India's long history in
Burma, particularly via bordering regions like China's Yunnan province or
India's restive northeast.
Myint-U argues that Burma will be the site of
the world's next "great game", as China and India battle for
influence and natural resources in Southeast Asia.
This is persuasive in light of the ongoing
US$2.5 billion 2,380 km-long Sino-Burma oil and gas pipeline that will link the
port of Sittwe to Yunnan's Kunming.
China hopes this pipeline will reduce its
dependency on oil shipped through the Malacca Straits, which it fears India may
be able to cut off with its burgeoning navy.
A recurring theme in Myint-U's two books is
that foreign nations cannot keep on isolating Burma, as its rulers have often
simply turned their backs on the world.
Indeed, the country's current social policy
may be conditional on the international community continuing to reward the
regime for its good behaviour.
So while it's probably wise to welcome the
latest developments, the patient engagement of Burma ought to continue.
However, a free and open Burma-with a
population of 47 million, natural resources and strategic location-will be a
strong rival for investment and influence.
The "Myanmar Spring" may well herald
a new rivalry between mainland and maritime Southeast Asia.
Finally, we Malaysians must ask ourselves:
"Do we wish to fall behind Asean's perennial human-rights laggard?"
Karim Raslan in Petaling Jaya/The Star | ANN
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