Optimism
is rising in Myanmar because of a new president who seems committed to reform
and opening up the economy.
When former Prime Minister Thein Sein was
elected president of Myanmar earlier this year, observers saw him as a puppet
of the old regime. They considered the November elections to be nothing more
than window dressing and predicted that the military, which had been in the
driving seat for over four decades, would still be pulling the strings and
running the country in much the same old way as before - out of step with the
times and its own people.
Six months into his presidency however, the
new president is beginning to prove his critics wrong. Myanmar appears to be
moving away from the discredited policies of the past and adopting more open
policies. Recent press reports indicate growing signs of palpable change in the
country.
Expectations and hopes that real change may be
on the horizon have been heightened by the statements of senior European Union
and United States officials who visited the country recently. The EU's
humanitarian aid commissioner Kristalina Georgieva said she was encouraged by
official pledges of greater access to troubled areas.
Derek Mitchell, US Special Representative and
Policy Coordinator for Myanmar, stated following his five-day visit that the US
recognised and welcomed recent gestures from Nay Pyi Taw - such as President
Thein Sein's meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi, the establishment of a national
human rights commission, public emphasis on dialogue with ethnic groups and
easing of media censorship.
Genuinely
committed
The rising optimism in the country stems
mainly from the fact that new president appears to be genuinely committed to
reforms. He has not only made policy statements calling for political
reconciliation, strengthening of democratic practices and economic reforms, but
also followed them up with action.
He has taken the extraordinary step of meeting
with Ms Suu Kyi and inviting her to dinner in the new presidential residence.
Observers agree that the photograph that appeared in Myanmar papers, of
President Thein Sein standing with Ms Suu Kyi
in front of the official portrait
of General Aung San, her father and a national hero, sends a positive signal.
Ms Suu Kyi herself has confirmed that there is
a sense of spring in the air. In her speech marking the International Day of
Democracy, she told her audience: "I believe we have reached a point where
there is opportunity for change."
She also told AFP the new government appeared genuine in its desire for
democratic reform, and that an Arab-style uprising was not the answer to the
country's problems.
"There have been changes, but I don't
think we're all free or completely free yet. There's still quite a way to go,
but I think there have been positive developments," she said.
Derek Tonkin, the former British Ambassador to
Thailand and Vietnam and current CEO of
non-profit Network Myanmar, sums up the situation when he says:
"The government has gone further than many thought likely in term of its
declarations of intent, and has demonstrated a keen sense of purpose on social
welfare and economic issues."
Still, unsurprisingly, there are doubting
Thomases who are not convinced the changes go beyond the cosmetic. Mr Mitchell
alluded to this: "I think everybody who follows this country knows that
there have been stops and starts, that expectations have been dashed, that
things only go so far, and then they stop or they reverse themselves. And I
really urged the leadership to prove the skeptics wrong."
Economic
awakening
Myanmar's economy too is beginning to stir from
the deep slumber of decades of stagnation brought about first by General Ne
Win's misguided policies and his experiment with "The Burmese Way to
Socialism" and subsequently the sanctions imposed by the US and EU.
According to reports in Xinhua and the BBC,
Myanmar received a record US $20bn in foreign investment in the past year
alone: $10.2bn was in the oil and gas sector, $8.2bn in electric power, $1.4bn
in mining and $66.32m in manufacturing.
The leading investors are China with $7.8bn,
Hong Kong with $5.8bn, South Korea with $2.7bn, Thailand with $2.1bn, Britain
with $799m and Singapore with $226m.
The statistics are a reflection of the fact
that Myanmar is a resource-rich country and that it can attract investors
despite Western sanctions, which have clearly been a failure on all fronts. A
pro-business approach could have provided the West an opportunity to promote
more political, civil and economic freedom in Myanmar.
With the West staying away, China's hand has
been strengthened. A number of Chinese corporations are involved in huge
hydropower, mining and oil and gas
projects across the country. The projects include construction of dams as well
as a major pipeline and rail projects across Myanmar aimed at transporting gas
and oil to China's landlocked western provinces.
China has also started work on a deepwater
seaport and oil terminal on Ramree Island on the west coast of Myanmar. Once
completed, oil from the Middle East and Africa will be off-loaded there and
transported to Kunming via a 1,100km-long pipeline, which would eliminate the
need for tankers to pass through the
Malacca Strait.
Myanmar's other large neighbours, India and
Thailand, have jumped on the bandwagon to benefit from the opening up of the
country. The $110m Kaladan project will connect Myanmar's western coast with
India's land-locked northeast states, giving the latter access to the sea and
an opportunity to develop greater economic linkages with South-east Asia. The
project involves upgrading the Sittwe port and developing a 225km-long waterway
between Sittwe and Setpyitpyin in Myanmar along the Kaladan River. It also
includes construction of a 62km road from Setpyitpyin to Lawngtlai in Mizoram,
where it will merge with India's national highway 54.
Myanmar and Thailand have signed a framework
agreement on building a massive deep seaport in Dawei in the south of Myanmar
coupled with a road and rail link to Bangkok. The project, which includes a
special economic zone, is estimated to cost $13bn.
Seeking
the Asean chair
The gigantic infrastructure projects will
connect Myanmar to its neighbours and create openings like never before. Other
South-east Asian countries like Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam that have
experienced similar situations have been able to leap-frog to greater
prosperity.
As the world watches with anticipation the
evolving situation in Myanmar, it would be in the interest of the international
community to see that the reform process does not go awry.
The international community should ensure that
President Thein Sein's tentative steps at reforms will grow into larger
strides. One way might be for ASEAN to accede to Myanmar's request to assume
the chairmanship of the organisation in 2014.
The fact that Myanmar is actively seeking to
chair ASEAN's Standing Committee shows that it has come a long way from the
time it decided to forgo its turn to chair ASEAN in 2006. It reflects the
increasing confidence the new Myanmar government has in its ability to set its
house in order and its readiness to undertake the steps necessary to earn the
approbation of fellow ASEAN members and dialogue partners.
Under the circumstances, ASEAN may be in the
best position to promote more freedoms and openness in Myanmar.
Thaung Tun
Source: Al Jazeera
Thaung Tun, a Visiting Senior Research Fellow at ISEAS, is a former
Ambassador of Myanmar to the Philippines. He also served in Brussels as
Ambassador to Belgium, the Netherlands and the EU. A version of this article
was previously published by www.todayonline.com
The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not
necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial policy.
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