The
world's population reached seven billion this week. The day, Monday, was marked
with becoming happiness in countries that symbolically ushered in
seven-billionth births.
But it is the business of the United Nations
Population Fund to inject realism into a statistical milestone few earthlings
care about. It warns against over-consumption of resources: This was true
before the fifth billion was crossed a generation ago. More optimistically, it
says the crowded world could have thriving cities and productive labour that
will grow economies, given the right planning and investment.
That is demanding a high threshold of proof.
As 43 per cent of the seven billion are aged under 25, education and training
obviously will make the difference between hope and despair.
It would have been nice if some of the
increase of the past generation had been home-produced, in Singapore, for one.
Or in Japan and South Korea. But what has been overlooked in the numbers lark
is that falling fertility rates of the past half century - from six births per
1,000 to 2.5 - could see slower population growth than the addition of a
billion every dozen years. It is possible the end-century number would be
several billion short of 14-15 billion, at current rates of increase. Whatever
the profile, competition for resources is the one constant that governments and
the UN have to be watchful about. It is not food production. The world can feed
itself. Such shortages that occur are mainly the result of questionable
political choices and the machinations of food multinationals and futures
markets. It is not about oil: Alternatives can be found or new industrial
processes will emerge.
It is about water. Rivers cannot be
transported to arid lands. 'Owners' of rich river sources and basins (China and
Turkey are examples) will face increasing conflict with downstream nations as
demand rises.
The World Resources Institute, a United States
think-tank, calculates that water use will rise by 50 per cent in developing
nations by 2025. Two representations highlight the challenges. The first: Only
2.5 per cent of the Earth's water is fresh, with two-thirds of that frozen. How
soon can it be when oceans of salty water can be mined cheaply?
The second: It requires 100 litres of water to
grow 1kg of potatoes, but to produce 1kg of beef takes 13,000 litres. There is
scant chance of a change in eating habits when the middle-class multitudes of
China and India are taking to meat-eating with gusto.
But if industry and governments would be as
imaginative in seeking solutions as scientists are graphic in posing the
challenge, Earth may not feel so overcrowded.
News Desk
The Straits Times
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