Thailand - Bangkok's perfect storm

It was close to the perfect storm: unusually heavy rain, a large volume of pent-up water pouring in from the north, and high tides, all in Bangkok, a city sitting on a flood plain.

Even in normal years, the only thing that prevents flooding in the Thai capital is the city's battery of 758 submersible pumps, which discharge water mostly into the Chao Phraya River, propelling it out to sea.

What prevents the water from flowing back from the river and major canals--some of which holds water higher than the city--is close to 100km of dykes and flood walls lining the Chao Phraya.

But Bangkok's water drainage system was developed mainly for handling localised flooding caused by heavy rainfall, not massive run-offs from the north--which were exactly what it faced this year.

Adding to the problem, the flood plains around Bangkok which once helped to soak up heavy rainfall have been replaced by much development, putting modern, large-scale urban infrastructure and a bigger human population in the path of water heading from the north towards the sea.

Dense industrial estates and high-rises housing more than 20 per cent of Thailand's population on the flood plains not only increase the risk of flooding, but also raise the stakes when it happens: According to the latest estimates, the cost of damage from this year's floods has hit some US$3 billion.

"Nature can't be blamed for this," said water expert Ganesh Pangare from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), a global environmental network of governments, non-governmental groups and scientists.

Added Pangare, who heads IUCN's water programme in Asia: "We've encroached on everywhere. Wetlands have been converted to padi, and padi fields then converted to industry and housing. The drainage is gone. Waste has also clogged much of the drainage. Rivers have to flow. If you don't anticipate this, there is something terribly wrong."

Suvarnabhumi International Airport is one example of development defying nature: The airport is located in wetlands, and in 2008, 80 million baht (US$2.6 million) had to be spent to protect it from flooding.

Bangkok Post columnist Sanitsuda Ekachai made the same point in a piece Thursday.

"The area...used to be a massive swamp that held water during heavy rains, prevented flooding and provided nearby neighbourhoods with all sorts of fish and freshwater vegetables," she wrote. "The rapid transition...mirrors Bangkok's unregulated growth that has destroyed the old web of waterways. The flood chaos has revealed that each community, each business, each individual has been intent on building protective dykes that obstruct waterways and increase the water's ferocity when the dykes break. When they feel they have had enough, the affected communities rise up to stop what they perceive as flood mismanagement."  

Indeed, accusations are now flying over many of the measures taken by the government to stem the flow of water.

One was the decision to hold massive amounts of water in reservoirs in the north, even when they were at over 90 per cent of their capacity in the summer. When these filled to the brim, a lot of water inevitably had to be released--altogether, and very quickly.

The huge body of water rolled slowly southwards towards the sea, but was blocked by Bangkok itself, at which point it inundated provinces around the city. Despite desperate, ad hoc attempts to protect the capital, the water is making its way into the city anyway--exposing the inadequacies of both management and drainage infrastructure.

Pangare noted that the reservoirs in the north were almost full because of early rains in the dry season and late rains in the wet.

"Everyone knows you don't wait for a dam to be full before releasing water," he said. "They should have seen it coming. You have to be on your toes. People didn't have time to evacuate. That's the difference between a proper release and a panic release."

But while experts and bureaucrats continue to squabble over data and try to escape the blame game, it is clear that more investment is needed to address a problem that is bound to recur. Scientists have long warned that global warming will likely produce longer droughts and more rain in a shorter period.

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has pledged a new 'national masterplan' for water management that could cost an initial 800 billion baht to upgrade the system. The government has also indicated that it needs help from foreign experts and companies.

Experts say a key feature of the plan should be a clear management structure. Currently, over half a dozen agencies are involved in various aspects of water management, from the Irrigation Department and the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, the utility that runs the big dams in the north, to the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment and the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration. The result is a collision of different agendas, egos and jurisdictions that creates confusion and paralysis.

Disaster management is even worse: Dozens of agencies are involved in one way or another, with no clear line of authority.

There are also limits to infrastructure and technology. Bangkok's rapid growth and its industrial areas in its north have replaced natural drainage with urban infrastructure, while the pump-assisted drainage installed has failed.

The IUCN plans to do a thorough study of the water flow and the topography of the flood plain to develop recommendations for the future.

On Thursday, the organisation said that while large-scale engineering projects may be needed in some cases, solutions making use of natural features and processes were a "cost-effective way of improving flood management", and should be included in long-term plans.

Already, investors are looking at some possibilities, such as building 200km of embankments to protect seven industrial estates that were inundated over the last fortnight. The price tag: five billion baht (US$163 million).

Logistics specialist Chris Catto-Smith, who writes a column for the Bangkok Post, warned that the entire Mekong Delta and Bangkok were subsiding, which would add to the troubles.

"Unless they do something really serious, this problem is going to recur," he said. "It needs significant resources and genuine effort."

And not least, he added: "The money should not be allowed to disappear faster than the floodwaters."

Nirmal Ghosh

The Straits Times

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