Nov 20, 2011

Thailand - Illusions about amnesty could be costly for Thailand



Thailand can ill-afford another violent political showdown as floods continue, the economy reels and international confidence evaporates

On Wednesday, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said she was looking forward to using the 19th Asean Summit in Bali as a platform to restore confidence and reaffirm the country's commitment to rebuilding in the wake of the flood crisis.

Restoration, reconstruction and rehabilitation seem to be the government's buzzwords of the hour, although the message that she has been trying to send is being drowned out in a resurgent wave of an old political issue--her controversial big brother.

If the flood disaster has weakened investors' confidence in Thailand, the political storm brewing at the moment could turn eroding faith into a real scare.

As Yingluck left for Bali, the long-dormant People's Alliance for Democracy was making some new moves, the opposition camp was considering a censure motion and several civil society groups were up in arms over recent political events.

The alleged plan to bend the legal rules to give Thaksin Shinawatra amnesty for this year's celebration of His Majesty the King's birthday has been dominating newspaper front pages. If the flooding has exposed how political division in the country can make a natural crisis harder to manage, the amnesty issue threatens to worsen the situation dramatically.

Thailand has been debating the pros and cons of Thaksin, and we all know what the outcome of the likely showdown will be. The Yingluck government, in attacking critics of the amnesty plan, has badly missed the point.

Whether Thaksin is good or bad is another matter. Thailand simply cannot afford another politically explosive period at the moment. Yes, the government is empowered to enact and enforce a law, but that power is given to maintain national peace and stability. That power should and must not be abused. And that power should never be used to inflame political trouble.

We all know that Thaksin is getting restless. His sister's popularity has taken a big hit during this flood disaster. Thus, for the Pheu Thai government it makes political sense to push for a controversial agenda while she still can. There is also his daughter's wedding in December that Thaksin would love to attend.

Last but not least, while the flood crisis made the amnesty move look like poorly timed manoeuvring, Thaksin is very good at turning crises into opportunities. He must have expected the big uproar, but he might have gambled that the ongoing flooding could limit opposition to computer screens, as mass street protests are unlikely to be mobilised given transportation difficulties and other logistical obstacles due to the floods.

Yingluck has managed to sidestep this hot issue by going to Bali. She also wrote on her Facebook page that Asean leaders understood Thailand's flooding crisis, and its economic and political situation. Her message to the public is, predictably, that everything is going to be fine. That was also conveyed to Thailand's neighbours and the international community at a time when anti-amnesty groups are organising a protest and supporters of Thaksin are being mobilised to counter it.

The man who's spearheading the amnesty, Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung, has spent the last three days repeating one sentence: "The government isn't breaking any law." That might be true, but the Abhisit government didn't seem to be breaking any law either when the red shirts descended on Bangkok in March last year to set the stage for the worst political violence in modern-day Thailand. The red shirts were protesting against Abhisit Vejjajiva's rise to power, which records show took place through a legitimate parliamentary vote.

If the red shirts could campaign against Abhisit by insisting that the devil was in the detail, anti-amnesty protesters can surely do the same. Again, the point is not about whether some laws have been broken. The point is that proposing the amnesty now is bad for a badly weakened nation trying to find its feet.

"Confidence" is easier spoken about than created. And disasters, we all know, happen when those who matter mistake their illusions as something that gives them confidence.

Editorial Desk
The Nation (Thailand)



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