Thailand
can ill-afford another violent political showdown as floods continue, the
economy reels and international confidence evaporates
On Wednesday, Prime Minister Yingluck
Shinawatra said she was looking forward to using the 19th Asean Summit in Bali
as a platform to restore confidence and reaffirm the country's commitment to
rebuilding in the wake of the flood crisis.
Restoration, reconstruction and rehabilitation
seem to be the government's buzzwords of the hour, although the message that
she has been trying to send is being drowned out in a resurgent wave of an old
political issue--her controversial big brother.
If the flood disaster has weakened investors'
confidence in Thailand, the political storm brewing at the moment could turn
eroding faith into a real scare.
As Yingluck left for Bali, the long-dormant
People's Alliance for Democracy was making some new moves, the opposition camp
was considering a censure motion and several civil society groups were up in
arms over recent political events.
The alleged plan to bend the legal rules to
give Thaksin Shinawatra amnesty for this year's celebration of His Majesty the
King's birthday has been dominating newspaper front pages. If the flooding has
exposed how political division in the country can make a natural crisis harder
to manage, the amnesty issue threatens to worsen the situation dramatically.
Thailand has been debating the pros and cons
of Thaksin, and we all know what the outcome of the likely showdown will be.
The Yingluck government, in attacking critics of the amnesty plan, has badly
missed the point.
Whether Thaksin is good or bad is another
matter. Thailand simply cannot afford another politically explosive period at
the moment. Yes, the government is empowered to enact and enforce a law, but
that power is given to maintain national peace and stability. That power should
and must not be abused. And that power should never be used to inflame
political trouble.
We all know that Thaksin is getting restless.
His sister's popularity has taken a big hit during this flood disaster. Thus,
for the Pheu Thai government it makes political sense to push for a
controversial agenda while she still can. There is also his daughter's wedding
in December that Thaksin would love to attend.
Last but not least, while the flood crisis
made the amnesty move look like poorly timed manoeuvring, Thaksin is very good
at turning crises into opportunities. He must have expected the big uproar, but
he might have gambled that the ongoing flooding could limit opposition to
computer screens, as mass street protests are unlikely to be mobilised given
transportation difficulties and other logistical obstacles due to the floods.
Yingluck has managed to sidestep this hot
issue by going to Bali. She also wrote on her Facebook page that Asean leaders
understood Thailand's flooding crisis, and its economic and political
situation. Her message to the public is, predictably, that everything is going
to be fine. That was also conveyed to Thailand's neighbours and the
international community at a time when anti-amnesty groups are organising a
protest and supporters of Thaksin are being mobilised to counter it.
The man who's spearheading the amnesty, Deputy
Prime Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung, has spent the last three days repeating one
sentence: "The government isn't breaking any law." That might be
true, but the Abhisit government didn't seem to be breaking any law either when
the red shirts descended on Bangkok in March last year to set the stage for the
worst political violence in modern-day Thailand. The red shirts were protesting
against Abhisit Vejjajiva's rise to power, which records show took place
through a legitimate parliamentary vote.
If the red shirts could campaign against
Abhisit by insisting that the devil was in the detail, anti-amnesty protesters
can surely do the same. Again, the point is not about whether some laws have
been broken. The point is that proposing the amnesty now is bad for a badly
weakened nation trying to find its feet.
"Confidence" is easier spoken about
than created. And disasters, we all know, happen when those who matter mistake
their illusions as something that gives them confidence.
Editorial Desk
The Nation (Thailand)
Business & Investment Opportunities
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