As
waterlogged Thailand struggles to contain the worst floods in decades, it faces
a simple truth: not a whole lot can be done to avoid a repeat disaster in the
short term even with a new multi-billion dollar water-management policy.
City dwellers and farmers displaced since the
floods began in July, killing 427 people, and foreign investors waiting to pump
out factories could face the same thing when the rainy season rolls around
again in the middle of next year.
But there are short-term steps to reduce the
risk, including better cooperation between agencies with over-lapping
responsibilities and an improvement in the management of dams that feed water
down into the central flood plain.
At times since the crisis began unfolding,
rivalry between different arms of government exacerbated by divided political
loyalties has appeared to derail efforts to stop the deadliest flooding in half
a century.
"A main weakness in the system is
coordination and that can be improved if people set aside their egos. It has to
be non-partisan," said Chaiyuth Sukhsri, head of faculty at the Water
Resources Engineering Department at Chulalongkorn University.
"In the short term, we can eliminate a
third of the problem but the rest is long term. Improving the infrastructure
will take years."
The floods have knocked back Thailand's
expected growth this year by a couple of percentage points and wiped out a
quarter of the main rice crop in the world's biggest rice exporter, putting
pressure on global prices.
The disaster has also forced up global prices
of computer hard drives and disrupted global auto production after the flooding
of industrial estates in the central provinces of Ayutthaya and Pathum Thani,
north of Bangkok.
A 400 billion baht ($13 billion) budget
deficit has been targeted for this fiscal year from Oct. 1, up from 350 billion
baht previously, to help with the recovery.
Looking beyond this disaster and the still
unknown cost of destruction, foreign investors would like to see more
streamlined crisis management, said Nandor von der Luehe, chairman of the Joint
Foreign Chambers of Commerce.
"Maybe the government should look at one
agency. There were too many people responsible for different areas, like too
many cooks in the kitchen," he said.
"That would be a big step."
"EVERYTHING BUILT ON FLOOD PLAIN"
The role that dams played in the disaster is
being debated but some experts say authorities in charge of the dams scattered
over uplands in the north were too slow to release water.
When they had to, to stop dams bursting, unusually
heavy monsoon rain was falling and the rivers were full.
"Bangkok has grown so much and everything
is built on the flood plain. In the short term, not much can be done besides
good management," said development economist Sawai Boonma, who has been studying
Thailand's flood problem for decades.
"They have try to release the water
gradually as it builds up in the dams. This time they waited until the dams
were over-capacity. That's why the volume of water was so huge."
The priority of the authorities managing dams
is irrigation and they were perhaps understandably reluctant to let a lot of
water out early after a drought last year, said Chaiyuth.
In the longer term, Sawai said flood
spill-ways, one kilometre (half a mile) wide should be created both to the east
and west of Bangkok, with even a smaller one through the city.
People should also think about getting out of
the flood plain, where the annual deluge brings such bounty in the fields, said
Sawai. He envisages satellite towns built on higher ground linked to Bangkok by
high-speed train.
A newer industrial zone southeast of Bangkok,
which has no major river basin, has escaped the flooding.
"Not only have they put the industrial
estates in the danger area, they've built over the best rice fields. It's lose-lose,"
Sawai said.
A newer industrial zone southeast of Bangkok,
which has no major river basin, has escaped the flooding.
Climate change with its expected rise in sea
levels and more storms only make a re-think more critical, he says.
Von der Luehe said Thailand was still good for
business, despite the floods and the danger of more, because of factors such as
location and infrastructure.
"Obviously, investors should consider
locations. Not everything has been flooded," he said. "Overall, when
we look at the neighbouring countries, Thailand is still a strong destination.
We are in a good position here."
Robert Birsel | Reuters
(Additional reporting by Ploy Ten Kate;
Editing by Nick Macfie)
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