The death of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has cast the
spotlight on a power couple - his only sister and her husband.
Many wonder if the couple will
stick to their appointed role as guardians of chosen successor Kim Jong Un or
seize power for themselves.
According to succession plans
put in place last year, Ms Kim Kyong Hui will act as guardian to her
inexperienced nephew, who would need help to command a reclusive society
steeped in tradition and which values respect to the elders.
Helping her in that role is her
husband Jang Song Thaek, whose position as vice-chairman of the powerful
National Defence Commission makes him the North's unofficial No. 2 leader.
He also wields immense power as
the head of intelligence and as political overlord of the prosecutor's office,
the police and the courts.
The question on some observers'
minds is whether the couple, both aged 65, or a group of party and military
elite, would grab power from heir apparent Kim Jong Un.
There had been speculation that
Ms Kim, who heads the light industry department of the ruling Workers' Party,
might have set her sights on the country's top post, according to a report by
South China Morning Post in September last year.
She was rumoured to have helped
"arrange" a traffic accident in June last year that killed Mr Ri Je
Gang, a senior party official and perceived guardian of Mr Kim Jong Un. Mr Ri
reportedly had tried to oust Ms Kim and her allies from power.
Professor Ryoo Kihl Jae at
South Korea's University of North Korean Studies believes a power struggle
could break out between the younger Kim and Mr Jang.
"Tension will arise
between Jang and Kim Jong Un, because Kim will have no choice but to share some
power with Jang," said Prof Ryoo.
North Korea expert Lee Seung
Reol at Ewha Womans University said conflict could also break out between the
younger Kim and the elite, given the short time he has had to prepare for the
top post.
"We cannot rule out the
possibility that Kim Jong Un will be eliminated. Kim Jong Il had nearly 20
years to prepare for the power succession, but Jong Un had only two to three
years," said Prof Lee.
"That can hardly be seen
as preparation. It appears there is little stability in the power succession
process."
East Asia expert Yooil Bae from
the Singapore Management University said it would be difficult to tell how the
situation would develop, but added that the late Mr Kim would have put in place
power-sharing arrangements.
"Jang Song Thaek is one of
the most powerful persons in North Korea right now, and Kim Jong Un is probably
going to seek his help. Kim Jong Il probably left (instructions) in his will
for power arrangements between them," Assistant Professor Bae said.
This could mean a scenario in
which Mr Jang rules from behind the scenes while Mr Kim Jong Un undergoes
on-the-job training, said analysts, noting that North Korea's elites have a
vested interest in maintaining the status quo.
"For a while, the military
and Kim's family will try to uphold Kim Jong Un as their leader and unite
around him," said Mr Baek Seung Joo of the Korea Institute for Defence
Analyses in Seoul, adding that the North had fully prepared for Mr Kim's death.
One key factor deciding how the
couple would act is the strong bond between Ms Kim and her late brother. She is
said to have been his confidante and the only person able to speak freely to
him.
Former South Korean lawmaker
Jang Sung Min, who wrote a book on the North Korean leader, said: "Kim
Kyong Hui is the only person in the North who can speak frankly to Kim Jong Il
and can even be emotional in front of him."
Former Japanese defence
minister Yuriko Koike wrote in a syndicated column last year that Mr Kim
himself noted his sister's authority in comments before the ruling party's
central committee.
"Kim Kyong Hui is myself,
the words of Kim Kyong Hui are my words, and instructions issued by Kim Kyong
Hui are my instructions," he had reportedly said.
Ms Kim also has a fiery temper,
according to the late Mr Kim.
"When my sister turns
violent, no one can stop her. Even I can do nothing."
Kor Kian Beng
The Straits Times
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