Dec 16, 2011

Singapore - Singapore's NODX up 1.6% in November on-year


SINGAPORE : Singapore's key exports rebounded in November despite a gloomy economic outlook globally.

Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) grew a better-than-expected 1.6 percent on-year after the previous month's decline of over 16 percent. 

The electronics sector surprised the market with its first expansion after nine straight months of decline.

Stronger demand for integrated circuits provided the boost for the electronics sector.

Electronics exports were boosted by shipments of ICs, which grew 5.6 percent year-on-year, while other major electronic products showed a smaller decrease.

Overall, electronic exports rose 0.1 percent.

Analysts have come up with a range of reasons for the surprise rebound in the electronics sector. 

They were forecasting a 12.3 per cent drop for November.

Some say this reflects festive-season orders coming through later than usual this year.

Others pointed to the Thai floods in October shifting some orders to Singapore.

Despite the better numbers, most analysts warn that the recovery is not convincing. 

The US Semi book-to-bill ratio climbed to 0.83 in November compared to 0.74 in October, indicating more orders being received. 

But Domestic Purchasing Managers' Index data for November had indicated that the electronic sector would still be weak, with the reading dropping to 50.9 in November from 52.1 in October.

Mr Leif Eskesen, Economist, HSBC, said: "The electronics sector and exports more generally in Singapore are going to face headwinds going ahead. One of the reasons why there was an improvement in the electronics segment was that the base effect last year was actually favourable... So essentially the base in November last year was quite low. I think also there's also been some drawdown in inventories on the electronics side externally that might have run its course at least for a while. That might have made it a bit of a boost to electronics exports as well."

November trade was also boosted by higher exports of non-electronics which turned positive.

It rose 2.4 percent, after a drop of 6.9 in the previous month, led mainly by pharmaceuticals which grew 22 percent.

Exports to all of the top 10 markets rose except for Europe, the US, Thailand and South Korea. 

The top three contributors to November's expansion were Japan (+18 percent), Hong Kong (+11 percent) and Taiwan (+15 percent).

There were also slightly better numbers in shipments to Europe, the country's biggest export destination.

These fell by 20 percent - a smaller decrease than the 31 percent decline in October.

Miss Chow Penn Nee, Economist, UOB Bank, said: "Even though we saw exports to Europe declining not as sharply as before, this also does not point to the Europe situation improving, especially since there doesn't seem to be a clear resolution in the European debt crisis. We think that the external demand still remains very subdued, slow recovery in the US will weigh on exports, generally for the next year. The first few months might show some slightly better numbers, that's due to the low base for the first part of 2011."

The outlook for exports is not very encouraging. 

The demand from the West is set to continue to be weak, and Asia is likely to see a slowdown in growth.


- CNA/de/ch


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