Deep
contents on economic growth issue were raised in the scientific conference
“Vietnam economy- Medium term growth potential” held on January 18 in Hanoi by
Ministry of Planning and Investment’s National Centre for Socio-economic
Information and Forecast, Vietnam News Agency reported.
Input
factors for economic growth
Assistant Prof. Dr Do Van Thanh, Vice Director
of the Centre said that during the last 11 years, Vietnam’s GDP growth pace was
always higher than the world’s average GDP growth. Particularly, Vietnam ranked
second after China in East Asia-Pacific in terms of GDP growth rate.
However, in the period of 2000 to 2002,
Vietnam used to have the lowest inflation rate among developing countries in
East Asia Pacific. Since 2003, the inflation always has been at the highest
level.
Experts said that Vietnam needs to consider
input factors affecting Vietnam’s economic growth, and then finding what causes
and solutions for the new period. Factually, the economy’s production capacity
is defined based on input factors including capital, labour and others.
In the recent past, along with the shift in
economic structure, investment capital structure in line with the economic
areas (economic components) also had big changes. In 2000, the proportion of
agro-forestry and fisheries accounted for 13.85% of total actualized investment
amount, which fell to 6.15% in 2010. On contrary, the proportion of service
investment gradually increased from 46.93% in 2000 to 52.56% in 2010 while that
of industry and construction ranged between 39.23% and 41.29%.
Labour capacity of agro-forestry and fisheries
continuously went down through years and there was a upward trend of
industry-construction, and services
However, according to Prof John FitzGerald,
Total Factor Production (TFP) is very important to the economy. Accordingly, an
economy should be aware of developing capacity of each labourer through better
technology, and production means that will lead to higher output and income
without raising investment capital. The fact showed that the capital amount for
investment without borrowing is limited and borrowing capital usually harms the
economy.
In
short run, Vietnam’s economic growth estimated at medium level
According to the National Centre for
Economic-Social Information and Forecast, the world’s economic growth is
assumed to reach 4-4.8% in the period of 2012 to 2015, and budget deficit will
reduce from 4.9% in 2011 to 4.5% in 2015, CPI of 2012 is expected at one-digit
and around 7%.
Assistant Prof.Dr Do Van Thanh predicted that
the economic growth of Vietnam as well as regional countries will remain at
medium pace between 2011 and 2015. Therefore, GDP growth rate of Vietnam is
targeted at 6.04% in 2012, 7%, 7.4% and 7.2%, respectively in 2013, 2014 and
2015. In the whole period, the economic GDP may reach around 6.68%.
In addition, the actualized investment capital
of Vietnam in the period is predicted to average at 35.2% a year, in which the
highest ratio may be made in 2014, at 36%. 2014 GDP growth also is expected at
7.4%.
As calculated, prospective average GDP growth
of the economy generally and the agro-forestry-fisheries,
industry-construction, and services particularly in the period of 2012-2015 are
respectively 7.79%, 5.93%, 8.97% and 8.03%.
The positive sign is that TFP increase of
Vietnam and the economic areas will tend to increase gradually in 2011-2015,
assumed at 2%.
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