As
US power wanes and China's waxes, other countries start looking for allies
As US power declines along with its role as
Asia's peacemaker and tensions rise, Vietnam has been looking abroad for
potential allies in hedging against Chinese hegemony in the region. India, with
its own strategic concerns about Beijing, is emerging as a prospective
benefactor and partner.
The urgency of Vietnam's search for new allies
came into sharp relief after Chinese naval vessels cut the cables of two
Vietnamese oil exploration ships in May and June 2011, well within what Vietnam
considers its Exclusive Economic Zone in the South China Sea -- called the East
Sea by the Vietnamese. The incident kicked off weeks of demonstrations in Vietnam
-- a rarity in a country run by a repressive government that allows few
demonstrations of any kind. Eleven anti-China protests were held between June
and August.
“It was a big shock that basically mobilized a
lot of Vietnamese public opinion against China. It also forced quite a number
of Vietnamese political and military leaders to state unequivocally their
stance on South China Sea, and how to deal with China on that issue,” says
David Koh, an expert on Vietnamese politics and civil society at the Institute
of Southeast Asian Studies.
“Initially the demonstrations served the
government’s purpose because they signaled to China that its assertiveness in
the South China Sea was having a counterproductive impact on bilateral
relations,” says Carlyle Thayer, a professor of Vietnamese domestic politics at
the University of New South Wales.
However, these rare expressions of public
sentiment were eventually halted by force. “As the demonstrations wore on they
became a potential liability on the Vietnamese government’s diplomatic
approaches to China,” Thayer says.
The fact is that Vietnam can't afford to push
China too far because of the asymmetry of their relationship. “I have termed
this the tyranny of geography,” says Thayer, “Vietnam can't pick its neighbor.
At 89 million people or the 12th most populous country in the world, Vietnam is
only a middle sized Chinese province. The Vietnamese government is divided
between those who understand the need to act with prudence towards China and
those who would like to see a more assertive stance. ”
Instead of directly antagonizing the Chinese,
Vietnam has chosen to look elsewhere for support. At the East Asia Summit in
November 2011, other countries in the region joined together with the United
States to demand that maritime disputes be resolved multilaterally, rather than
bilaterally as China prefers.
“This form of assertiveness in the South China
and East China Sea is not confined to Vietnam. This is part of a broader
assertiveness [from China]. This concerns all of China’s neighbors who share
land and maritime borders with China. At the East Asia Summit it was made clear
to China that they cannot approach this bilaterally, it needs to be
multilaterally,” said Gopalapuram Parthasarathy, the former Indian Ambassador
to Myanmar.
As an indication of that concern, Vietnam's
defense minister. Gen. Phuong Quang Thanh, invited Myanmar's top military
official, Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, to make his first trip abroad in November to
Vietnam. Min Aung Hlaing did so, conspicuously not choosing China as his
predecessors have done. Although there was no detailed announcement of the
defense chief's itinerary, military observers say the visit was intended to
both cement bilateral cooperation between the two countries as well as signaling
an attempt to put some space between Myanmar's previous close relationship to
China.
"China realizes that India represents one
of a number of countries that are concerned about its assertiveness in the
South China Sea. China therefore fears that an anti-China coalition may
emerge," Thayer said.
India remains the major new focus of Vietnam's
diplomacy. The Vietnamese President, Trung Tan Sang, visited India for the
first time in October. “It was a significant visit and I think the timing of
the visit was serendipitous. India is one strong anchor to the far west of the
Asia continent for Vietnam,” Koh says.
Vietnam has sought cooperation from India in
the form of military training, with both countries using Russian equipment
extensively. They are also expected to purchase submarines and are hoping to
get approval to buy land-based anti-ship cruise missiles from the South Asians.
In exchange, India gets to partake in
Vietnam’s oil hunt, and perhaps more significantly their navy gets to use the
Vietnamese port of Nha Trang, which could result in a significant Indian naval
presence in the South China Sea.
The South China Sea plays an important part in
India’s strategic considerations. As former ambassador Parthasarathy points
out, 40 percent of Indian trade with the US goes through the South and East
China seas, as does trade with Korea and Japan, two of India’s biggest trade
partners.
Then there’s the oil. “Everybody gains from
oil explorations. China cannot dictate to us where we look for oil,”
Parthasarathy says.
The largest democracy in the world has
considerable beef with its communist counterpart. There are major territorial
disputes over large swathes of the land border shared by the two neighbors.
India is nervous too about the pace of Chinese growth, and what it views as
Chinese incursions into the Indian Ocean. China has recently built ports in Sri
Lanka and Myanmar.
China has also been called the “all-weather
friend” of India’s arch-rival Pakistan, who is regarded by Beijing as a way to
box in New Delhi’s ambitions in Central Asia.
Analysts warn that China will take kindly to
India’s move into its backyard. “Can there be advantages for China if the India
navy has the occasional cruise in the South China Sea?” Koh asks.
“The negatives for China are immanent, not
imminent. It establishes the precedent of the presence of out-of-area navies in
the disputed areas,” says Bharat Karnad, a former member of the National
Security Council of India.
But hawks in India like Parthasarathy want to
see their country bring China back a peg or two, and increased friendship with
Vietnam is one way to achieve this goal.
“We are not claiming the Indian Ocean as
Indian territory, like the Chinese are with the South China Sea,” Parthasarathy
says. “Our relations [with Vietnam] have been good even before Chinese-Vietnam
relations soured. We were one of the guys who said no to the American war, we
made our displeasure quite clear.”
“The Chinese are operating all over our
backyard, why should they get bothered about this? If you think we’re running
scared of the Chinese I can assure you we’re not,” he concluded.
Maher Sattar
Asia Sentinel
Business & Investment Opportunities
YourVietnamExpert is a division of Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd, Incorporated in Singapore since 1994. As Your Business Companion, we propose a range of services in Consulting, Investment and Management, focusing three main economic sectors: International PR; Healthcare & Wellness;and Tourism & Hospitality. We also propose Higher Education, as a bridge between educational structures and industries, by supporting international programs. Sign up with twitter to get news updates with @SaigonBusinessC. Thanks.
No comments:
Post a Comment