Standard
Chartered Bank has launched a number of updates and predictions about Vietnam
market in 2012 with the hot issues such as lowering interest rates, the
pressure of local currency and government bonds.
As reported by Standard Chartered Bank, after
one year facing high inflation, Vietnam's consumer prices has slowed down.
After the peak at 23% in August 2011,
inflation has started to cool for 5 months in a row. Underlying inflation
declined from 19.8% in November and 18.1% in December 2011 down to 17.3% in
January 2012. Prices of food and construction materials rose slightly,
inflation of the transport group was still high. However, this ratio tends to
decrease gradually in the coming months thanks to the stability of oil prices
at the present time.
Mr Tai Hui, head of Southeast Asia research,
under the Global Research team of Standard Chartered Bank, said that Standard
Chartered expects inflation will continue to decline from February 2012, after
the Tet holidays and will return to 1-digit number at the end of Q2/2012. This
will depend very much on the stability of world commodity prices and the
stability of the dong. Ability to rising electricity prices may increase the
risk of high inflation back in 2012.
"However, we continue to expect that
inflation will fall to single digits by the end of the first half of 2012,
enabling the central bank to ease the monetary policy," said Tai Hui said.
With the inflation rate that tends to
decrease, Standard Chartered Bank looks forward to seeing an interest rate cut
policy of the State Bank in the second half of 2012 for economic recovery and
expects the State Bank to adjust the refinancing interest rate from 15% to 12%
by end of Q2 and 11% in Q3/2012.
Besides, Standard Chartered Bank also expects
the GDP growth rate of Vietnam in 2012 to reach 5.9% like 2011. Instead of
domestic difficulties, the challenges on the international market will become
the most important factor in promoting the development of the economy. Vietnam
is affected by the European market because this is the main export market of
Vietnam - accounted for 14% of its total exports. However, the diversification
of export markets to other areas may partially alleviate the negative effects
when import demand in Europe declines
Tai Hui said: “With the context of inflation
on a downward trend and favourable demand-supply mechanisms, we expect a return
on government bonds of 2-year period would be reduced to 11.3% in Q4 / 2012.
Meanwhile, we also recommend limiting the segment of 0-3 year term government
bonds and focus on long-term government bonds when local inter-bank liquidity
is improved”.
VietBiz24
Business & Investment Opportunities
YourVietnamExpert is a division of Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd, Incorporated in Singapore since 1994. As Your Business Companion, we propose a range of services in Consulting, Investment and Management, focusing three main economic sectors: International PR; Healthcare & Wellness;and Tourism & Hospitality. We also propose Higher Education, as a bridge between educational structures and industries, by supporting international programs. Sign up with twitter to get news updates with @SaigonBusinessC. Thanks.
No comments:
Post a Comment