While change is
sweeping through Burma, the military will dictate the pace of the country's
integration with the global community
On the surface, democratic change is sweeping through Burma.
But visitors arriving in Naypyidaw, the surreal administrative capital
located more than 300km from Yangon, are quickly reminded of who is really in
charge: Burma's men in green.
The city, with its largely deserted boulevards, has a military zone
that is off-limits to ordinary citizens.
Built from scratch under the watchful eyes of the army's top brass at
an estimated cost of US$5 billion, the architecture is drab Soviet-era with a
distinct army feel. Shoddy workmanship, peeling wall paint and water-stained
ceilings are commonplace at ministry buildings, completed only five years ago.
The most impressive structure is the national Parliament. There is also
a 20-lane highway that can be converted into runways for fighter jets.
From this bunkered city, overlooked by the Shan hills in central Burma,
the country's generals watch the reforms being carried out by the civilian
government headed by President Thein Sein.
"The elephant in the middle of the room is the military. Unless
its role is clearly defined soon, Burma will be a two-bit player in the
region," said a long-time foreign aid worker who visits the country
regularly.
The fact is that the military will continue to cast a shadow over Burma
for years to come. And the pace at which Burma integrates with the
international community after 49 years of isolation will be dictated by the
military, which has the constitutional right to seize power during an
emergency.
Burma, a country of 55 million people, has a 400,000-strong military.
The military controls 25 per cent of the seats in both Houses of the
Union Parliament and the regional assemblies. This political clout gives it a
veto over constitutional amendments, which require the support of more than 75
per cent of Parliament.
The 11-member powerful National Defence and Security Council, which
counts the commander-in-chief of the armed forces and the defence minister as
members, have the final say on national issues, according to diplomats.
"The key will be to assure the military of its place and
assurances that there will be no witch-hunt for the past. As long as the
military feels comfortable, the reform process will continue," said a
local businessman who enjoys close ties with the civilian government.
For now, the military is backing the reform agenda.
This week, the Commander-in-Chief, General Min Aung Hlaing, defended
the military's continued role in national politics and declared that the armed
forces would "support the functions of government" in Burma's march
towards democracy.
The reasons behind the military's move to loosen political control are
not clear.
Several analysts suggest that Burma's collapsing economy is a key
driving force. Another is the fear that deepening hardship for most of its
people could raise the spectre of unrest similar to the uprisings racking the
Middle East.
What particularly worried the generals is the prospect that Burma's
ethnic groups, locked in a bloody struggle for greater autonomy in the border
regions, would join such an uprising.
"The military is aware that with economic development, the
political and ethnic tensions can be reduced," said a Bangkok-based
South-east Asian diplomat who monitors closely developments in Burma.
"The real movers here aren't the military but the President (Thein
Sein) and (opposition leader Aung San) Suu Kyi, who have a very strong
partnership," said a Western diplomat.
Thein Sein, a former general who took power in March last year, has
surprised long-time Burma watchers with the pace of reforms, which has caused
unease among hardline elements in the military.
The public debate in Parliament over government spending and budget
cuts for the military has lent greater legitimacy to the reform movement.
Perhaps the biggest boost for the junta's tattered image is Suu Kyi's
decision to participate in mainstream politics, a move that is likely to
jumpstart the process for the gradual removal of sanctions against Burma.
While the ongoing reform process will take the heat off the country's
generals, foreign diplomats and local businessmen argue that the military must
urgently confront the protracted conflicts in the border regions.
Consider the problems in resource- rich Kachin state, which borders
China. Ethnic groups fighting for greater autonomy have accused the military of
widespread abuses because it wants to exploit large deposits of jade and gold
through its crony corporations.
Other ventures have also raised tensions in the northern state,
including the Chinese-led, $3.6 billion Myitsone Dam. The government suspended
the project in October last year on environmental grounds.
"The government can't unilaterally suspend the project because
this isn't international business practice. But to resolve this, the ethnic
problem needs to be resolved first," said a human rights activist who has regular
contacts with Kachin leaders.
"The key to this issue is the military."
Leslie Lopez
The Straits Times
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