As Burma prepares to hold parliamentary elections on Sunday, one in
which opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi will take part, Burma policy circles
here are engaged in vigorous debate on how the US should reciprocate this
latest step forward.
Officials, academics and advocacy and aid groups have weighed in on the
issue, given US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's pledge in January to
reward Burma for "walking down the path of reform", matching action
for action.
Already in response to Burma's flurry of reforms over the past months,
including the release of political prisoners, the US has announced it would
restore full diplomatic ties, suspended since 1990, and appoint an ambassador.
Washington has also partially allowed international financial institutions to
provide limited technical assistance to Burma.
The focus of attention now is on the lifting of sanctions as a form of
reward should the elections be deemed free and fair by the opposition and
outside observers.
Prominent members of Congress, including Senators John McCain and Mitch
McConnell, who have visited Burma in recent months, have indicated that
Washington would seriously review its sanctions policy if the polls proceeded
smoothly.
The US imposed sanctions in 1988 in response to human rights violations
by Burma's former ruling military junta. But those hoping for a complete
rollback of sanctions are likely to be disappointed.
First, experts pointed out that while the by-elections are an important
test, they are only one of many indicators the US will take into account as it reviews
its Burma policy.
Second, they added, eliminating US sanctions will be a complicated and
long drawn out process. This has partly to do with the nature of the sanctions
themselves. Asian affairs specialist Michael Martin described them as a 'web' of
overlapping penalties, subject to differing restrictions, waiver provisions,
expiration conditions and reporting requirements.
Dr Martin, in his report for the Congressional Research Service last
month, noted that in some cases, such as the recent easing of restrictions
against international financial institutions operating in Burma, the President
and/or the Secretary of State can issue waivers. In other cases, lifting a
particular sanction will involve consultations between the administration and
Congress, which would likely be a long, slow process.
From a business perspective, it is tempting to advocate revoking
sanctions quickly. Burma is an untapped market of some 55 million potential
consumers, a country rich in natural resources, including gas and hydropower.
There are lucrative opportunities for Western companies in almost all sectors,
but especially in energy, education, financial, infrastructure and
communications development.
The economic incentives are powerful, but to swiftly lift curbs and rush
into Burma may not be the best approach, Burma experts like Georgetown
University Professor David Steinberg warned.
Analysts pointed out that with so little institutional capacity, the
country could be overwhelmed if foreign firms go in all at once. Unchecked
inflows of foreign cash could cause high inflation, and the country's
underdeveloped financial system would be unable to cope. Foreign aid and
investment could also end up in the wrong pockets, in the absence of proper
checks and balances.
A gradual lifting of sanctions is also reassuring to those who fear
that the reforms could be easily reversed.
Murray Hiebert, deputy director of the Centre for Strategic and
International Studies' South- east Asia Programme, said US policymakers will
certainly be watching the by-elections, but more than that, "they will be
waiting to see what happens with the pace of reform after the polls, especially
if the reforms filter out from the capital into the countryside and ethnic
minority areas".
But even in the absence of a full lifting of sanctions, there are steps
the US can take to further encourage President Thein Sein and other reformers
in Burma's government to continue driving reform.
Hiebert suggested that Washington could send a strong signal by moving
quickly on Mrs Clinton's promise to appoint a US ambassador to Burma for the
first time in two decades.
The White House could also consider a nuanced easing of sanctions on
investment and business that would have a direct, positive impact on poverty alleviation,
other experts said. Another encouraging gesture could involve the partial
lifting of visa bans so that more individual Burma officials could travel to
the US for parliamentary exchanges.
Getting the pitch correct is important in itself in the view of
analysts like Prof Steinberg. "The US has done a good job of supporting
reforms so far," he said at a recent talk. "Too little outside
support can undermine reforms, too much support can also undermine
reforms."
Tracy Quek
The Straits Times
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