Mar 23, 2012

Philippines - Stronger Peso Seen

PNoy: Dollar To Trade Below P40 In 2013

MANILA, Philippines — President Benigno S. Aquino III has predicted that the peso will sustain its appreciation versus the US dollars and may possibly breach the P40 level next year against the backdrop of improving economic condition of the country.

In his remarks at the 115th anniversary of the Office of the President in Malacañang last Thursday, the President took pride the country is already having a “fantastic” run on the economic front, mirrored by the continued strengthening of the local currency.

“I assure you that in 2016, we will all be able to look back and say that we really had such a fantastic period. Actually it is already happening today,” Aquino said, admitting that a stronger peso may even become a problem later on.

“We may even face the problem of a very strong peso next year. Today, the peso ranges from P41 to P44 but it may veer away from P41, P44 and even reach the P30s. Then we will have a different problem," Aquino said.

"But wait, the newspapers might report my prediction and anger our exporters today," he added, apparently becoming aware of the implication of his peso-dollar exchange rate forecast.

A strong peso dents on the country’s export performance as it means that the importers will have to shell out more dollars to pay for the local produce.

It, also, hits the overseas Filipino workers to a certain extent as it meant lesser amount of peso for their hard-earned greenback.

Yesterday, the last trading day of the week, saw the peso closing at P42.95 from the previous day’s P43.06, an 11-centavo appreciation against the US dollar. Although on a weighted rate, the peso barely moved, settling at an average of P43.05 from Thursday’s P43.04 to the greenback.

A foreign currency trader said the expected higher inflow of OFW dollar remittances pulled up the value of the peso against the US dollars. He admitted, however, that improvements in the economic indicators in the United States slightly weighed down the sustained peso appreciation.

Moving forward, he echoed the sentiment of the President that the “bias remains for peso strengthening,” adding that the peso could further appreciate and may breach the P43 level.

The President, who has denied he was "noynoying" – a stab at his alleged do-nothing working style, insisted that the local economy was improving due to his government's reform agenda.

An indication of the robust economy, Aquino said, is huge number of people shopping in the malls.

"I go around the malls. I look at people who are in the malls. If I do go around and see people in the mall, I look whether or not they have packages. If they have packages, chances are they shop, which means they had money," he said.

Another proof was the length of fireworks display during the New Year revelry, according to the President. Remembering he coughed more often during the New Year welcome rites, Aquino said revelers started the fireworks as early as 6pm ahead last December 31 that proved they have money. Some even have extra fireworks three days after New Year's Day, he said.

Aquino also highlighted other accomplishments of his administration, including the distribution of cash subsidies to three million poor families.

He said the government intends to build at least 66,000 classrooms by 2014 and achieve rice self-sufficiency in 2013. He said the country may become an exporter rather than importer of rice by then.

GENALYN D. KABILING
mb.com.ph

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