But don't count on them shooting anything
down
Anyone
watching the morning news in Tokyo might be forgiven in believing Japan is
preparing to go to war. News clips show Aegis missile destroyers steaming out
of port and trucks pulling boxy-looking PAC3 missiles covered with tarpaulin.
Some are deployed in Tokyo in order, we’re told, “to defend the capital”.
For the
fourth time in 14 years Japan is girding for a major North Korean ballistic
missile test. For several weeks Pyongyang has proclaimed its intention of
launching a missile and putting a satellite into orbit on or about the 100th
birthday on April 15 of North Korea’s founding president Kim Il-sung.
The
ships are headed for the East China Sea and the missile batteries are being
deployed to Okinawa, as the announced trajectory appears to be due south from
its launching point on North Korea’s eastern coastline, probably skirting the
big island of Kyushu and passing over Japan’s southern chain of islands.
There
is a considerable amount of PR bluff associated with these high-profile deployments
as it is very unlikely that any one of these missiles will be actually fired,
either to bring down the North Korean satellite missile itself or to knock out
one or more of the booster stages should they seem about to fall on Japanese
soil.
The last
time Pyongyang launched an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2009, the
trajectory carried the missile due east across northern Japan. At that time
too, Tokyo made a big show of moving PAC3 missiles to the region of northern
Honshu to shoot down any falling debris.
In that
case Tokyo’s announced intentions were somewhat plausible as the distance over
water separating the two countries was shorter and the land mass on which
debris could to fall was larger. In the event, the first booster stage fell
harmlessly in the ocean about 170 miles short of land, the second stage in the
ocean on the far side of Japan.
Thus
there was no need to launch any PAC-3, which is probably what Japanese leaders
calculated. The last thing that they really want to do is actually shoot down a
North Korean missile, something that Pyongyang has labeled an “act of war.”
They may not want to risk the embarrassment that an unsuccessful interception
might undermine the credibility of its deterrence.
The
latest missile test regime will take a far more southerly flight path, over a
larger area of water and a much smaller land area in Japan, which reduces the
likelihood that any remnant of the missile might threaten to fall on Japan. The
deployment of PAC3 batteries in Tokyo itself must be symbolic as the capital is
not even close to the launch trajectory.
A look
at the map shows that North Korea doesn’t have many options on firing off a
long-range missile without violating some important country’s air space. They
must figure if anybody is to be discomfited by the missile launch, it might was
well be Japan, with which it has absolutely no current official relationship.
The
1998 test flight came as a surprise, but in 2009 the North at least advised the
International Maritime Organization of the anticipated splashdown points of the
first and second booster stages (the third was supposed to go into orbit, it
but also fell into the North Pacific). This year they have gone further by
inviting people, including some international press, to witness the launch.
In a
way North Korea is the one taking the risk that the vaunted technological
achievement will not turn out to be a another dud. North Korea’s history of
long-range missile launches (as opposed to more successful medium and short
range missiles) is poor. Of course, the people of North Korean know nothing
about the failures.
Its
first launch in 1998 failed to put a satellite in orbit. Pyongyang claimed one
was circling the Earth broadcasting patriotic songs, but organizations that
keep watch on these things, such as the North American Air Defense Command,
said they could not verify that anything was put in orbit.
Another
purported launch on 2006 ended quickly when the missile exploded, or was
deliberately blown up only minutes after launch. The 2009 test launch also
failed to put a satellite in orbit. Some experts even doubt that validity of
its purported 2006 nuclear bomb test, the yield being so low as to suggest that
it fizzled out.
Nonetheless,
North Korea’s long-range missile program has had consequences both in Japan and
the U.S. The 1998 test shocked Japan and prompted Tokyo to increase its defense
measures. In 2003 it launched the first of two satellites to garner
intelligence on North Korea and agreed to allow Washington to deploy Patriot
missile interceptors at US bases in Japan.
Some
more conservative Japanese politicians argued that Japan needed to obtain
cruise missiles, and that a preemptive strike on North Korean missile site
would be within the parameters of self-defense as its war-renouncing
constitution is interpreted. American leaders, especially in the second Bush
administration, have used the North’s ballistic missile threat to argue for the
need to develop and deploy anti-missile defenses.
Over
the years, Japan has tightened its bilateral sanctions on the north, such as
ending regular ferry services, to the point where it has few if any real
options left. Many of these Japanese sanctions stem from a more parochial
dispute over kidnapped citizens. North Korea is the only UN member with which
Japan has no formal relations.
The
past three long-range missile launches have had certain things in common. They
all took place while negotiations were underway. In 1998 North Korean diplomats
were actually in New York. This launch comes after it appeared there was some
progress with Pyongyang agreeing in principle to allow nuclear inspectors back
in the country.
They
have also occurred on near important elections in the US and South Korea. This
one, of course, takes place during a year when both the US and South Korea will
be choosing presidents. And the South’s National Assembly election takes place
within a week of the purported launch date. It may be a part of North’s
patented one-step forward, two steps backwards negotiating style.
Then
again it may equally simply be a way of honoring the legendary founder who is
North Korea’s “eternal president”. What better birthday president than a
satellite orbiting the world broadcasting to “Song of Kim Il-sung” as if
emanating from heaven. All they have to do is get the blessed thing in orbit.
Todd
Crowell
Asia
Sentinel
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