Democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi and her
National League for Democracy look to have scored key victories in by-elections
in Burma on Sunday.
Pro-democracy
icon Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD) were swept
into Burma’s parliament on Sunday after 45 by-elections were held across the
country amid unprecedented political reforms that could see an end to crippling
economic sanctions.
The
polls pitted the NLD directly against the ruling Union Solidarity and
Development Party(USDP), and victory will give the 66 year-old an unprecedented
say in Burma’s political life.
More
than 170 candidates from 17 political parties contested the by-elections,with
early results suggesting Suu Kyi had picked up at least 65 percent of the vote.
An
official declaration could take days.
“Suu
Kyi remains the symbol of hope for Burmese looking for a change in their
fortunes. Her victory could create exaggerated expectations about the pace and
scope of change,” says Carl Thayer, Emeritus Professor with the University of
New South Wales in Australia.
Thousands
turned out in their respective electorates, claiming their right to vote in one
of the few polls Burma has held in the last 25 years. For the Nobel laureate,
who spent 15 of those years under house arrest, her poor village of Wa Thin Kha
in her seat of Kawhmu provided a stunning backdrop for her win.
However,
her voice in parliament will be limited as the opposition NLD will hold only a
tiny minority in the 664-seat assembly. Another three by-elections were
abandoned due to security reasons.
Still,
Thayer adds: “What is significant is that the government permitted Aung San Suu
Kyi and her NLD to register and run in so many constituencies.”
Her
victory will also be seen as a plus by Naypyidaw, and in particular President
Thein Sein, who is currently in Cambodia for the annual summit of the
Association of South East Asia Nations.
Suu Kyi
had already criticized the campaign, saying it couldn’t be described as
democratic after reports of irregularities involving voting rolls. This
continued on the day amid complaints that dead people were still listed and
legitimate voters weren’t, despite having registered.
In Shan
state, there were complaints ballots had been waxed, preventing voters from
marking the papers as they saw fit.
Election
monitors from ASEAN and its 10 dialogue partners including the United States,
European Union, China and Australia are still assessing the polls. In the West,
governments are considering whether to ease sanctions, and it remains to be
seen if they will be satisfied that the polls broadly reflected the will of the
people.
Thayer
says the key question is whether the polls are seen as comparatively free and
fair, and what will happen now Suu Kyi and her party appears to have won a
substantial number of seats. This will create a bloc of truly independent
deputies who could question government policies.
“These
elections are really more about testing the coalition of reformers behind the
president,” Thayer says. “If Suu Kyi and the NLD win convincingly, will this
provoke a backlash?”
Australian
Foreign Minister Bob Carr said in Canberra that he had noted comments from Suu
Kyi that there have been voting irregularities.
“We
will speak to her. We are going to speak to other figures in opposition about
those irregularities,” Carr said. “But it is clearly in the interests of Thein Sein,
the country’s president, to get international recognition for the modernization
of Burma.”
Suu
Kyi’s decision to press ahead with her electoral bid is widely seen as
legitimizing Thein Sein, whose government came to power in 2010 in a general
election widely regarded as rigged. With cashed-up business knocking at his
country’s doors, the president has indicated he hoped “The Lady” would do well.
The NLD
won a landslide election victory in 1990, but the result was eventually
annulled by the military. The party boycotted the 2010 vote, but relented in
regards to the current by-elections after the government amended its electoral
laws.
“Suu
Kyi must also work out her role in the country’s future,” Thayer says. “She
must decide whether it is best to sit in the assembly or to work with the
government. This will test her leadership over those NLD candidates who are
successful, and the NLD as an organization itself.”
Luke
Hunt
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