(Analysis) – When U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced
this week an easing of investment sanctions on Burma, she made sure she first
praised President Thein Sein for his reform efforts before congratulating
democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi on her election victory.
It was only logical that Thein Sein be given priority. One of the
biggest fears of Western governments is that Burma would slide back to harsh
military rule if he is out of the saddle during the country's vulnerable
democratic transition.
Aung San Suu Kyi may be gaining bouquets for steering her National
League for Democracy (NLD) to a landslide victory in last Sunday's by-elections
but she could not have made her election debut without Thein Sein’s help. It
was he who had pushed for the NLD to be re-registered after it was banned by
the previous military junta, paving the way for the party to contest in
elections for the first time since 1990, when the NLD's poll victory was not
recognized by the military rulers.
But Thein Sein remains vulnerable.
The 66-year-old ex-army general, who has a
pacemaker in his chest to help control abnormal heart rhythms, is caught in a
power struggle between his reform-minded camp and that of the hardliners.
Increasing
pressure
The trouncing received by
the ruling military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) at the
hands of the NLD in the by-elections is expected to see Thein Sein coming under
increasing pressure from the hardliners, led by the country's first
vice-president, Tin Aung Myint Oo.
"Successful
transitions need strong figures and good leadership, and Thein Sein, even
though he's not assertive, has come out as a leader and somebody that the
people really like," Priscilla Clapp, a former U.S. chargé d'affaires to
Burma, told RFA.
"I don't think the
conservatives are comfortable with the extent of the NLD victories," said
Clapp, now a senior adviser at the New York-based Asia Society. Four of the 42
seats captured by the NLD were in Naypyidaw, the country's capital and bastion
of the military and government. Ironically, one of the seats—Pobba Thiri—vacated
by Tin Aung Myint Oo, was captured by a popular hip-hop singer and ex-political
prisoner Zay Yar Thaw.
"What's really quite
amusing to me is that the first vice-president, who is probably the arch
conservative in the government, was elected [in November 2010] from the
constituency in Naypyidaw that now has a hip-hop, former political prisoner as
representative," Clapp said.
"So that tells you something about what is happening in the minds
of the Burmese people—that once they are released from the restrictions, once
they begin to feel a sense of release, they go over to the other side. This is
going to be a source of tension within the government as you can imagine."
The situation cannot be
more delicate.
"The true test of
whether the army is really ready to step back for good will come in three
years, when Burma is supposed to hold national elections for all seats,
potentially allowing the NLD or other opposition parties to actually control
parliament," said Joshua Kurlantzick, a Southeast Asian expert at the
Washington-based Council on Foreign Relations.
"Before that time,
the government will have to make good on other difficult promises, including
further opening up the media landscape after years of harsh press laws,
creating a more level playing field for all political parties, and dealing with
the many simmering ethnic insurgencies."
No threat
The government allowed
the by-elections—aimed at filling 45 parliamentary seats vacated by legislators
who joined the administration—partly because the shift in seats within the
664-member parliament does not yet threaten the power of the military and its
civilian allies, he said.
"What's more, Suu
Kyi and Thein Sein do not hold enough sway over their supporters to ensure a
successful reform path," Kurlantzick said.
What is especially
daunting is that Burma is confronting the profound challenge of moving away
from 50 years of harsh, haphazard authoritarian rule while also grappling with
the need to resolve the multiple aggravated ethnic conflicts that have festered
for decades, said Thomas Carothers, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace.
"Trying to work
simultaneously through two interrelated processes of the distribution of
power—democratization at the core of the political system and greater regional
autonomy in sizeable parts of the country—will be extremely difficult," he
said. "It is a bit like trying to drive across a narrow, badly paved
bridge with steep drops on either side while at the same time struggling to
stop a fight with a whole set of angry passengers inside the car,"
Carothers said.
Sitting on the fence
Burmese by nature are
pretty conservative and many, including in the military and the civil service,
are seemingly sitting on the fence as reforms take shape.
"There is only a
small group of 'real conservatives' and 'real reformers,'” Clapp said.
"There are probably a lot of people wondering
whether this reform is really the right thing, but if it tends to produce real
results and things get better and there is no instability and if the country
begins to move forward and people see that it is working, then it isolates the
real conservatives and makes it harder for them to sabotage things.”
Thein Sein has only mixed
results in his push for change that has seen, among other reforms, a release of
political prisoners, relaxed media censorship, and a managed float of the kyat
currency.
"The reforms that
have been most dramatic are the ones that were done rather precipitously and
it's not clear whether they will hold," Clapp said, citing as an example
Thein Sein's announcement last year suspending the controversial U.S.$3.6
billion Chinese-backed Myitsone hydroelectric dam.
The project, at the head
of the Irrawaddy river in Burma's northern Kachin State, faced strong
opposition from Aung San Suu Kyi, environmental groups and ethnic Kachin
rebels.
Lobby groups are still wary because Thein Sein has
said he is suspending the dam's construction only for the term of his office,
which ends in 2015. In addition, there are groups within the administration
believed to be trying to put the project back on track with the Chinese,
sources say.
Ethnic groups
Thein Sein is also facing
an uphill battle trying to forge peace with ethnic groups, especially the
Kachin rebels.
While negotiations are
underway, army abuses against ethnic minorities continue and the armed forces
have not changed their abusive behavior in ethnic conflict areas, Human Rights
Watch, a New York-based group, said.
Thein Sein in December
ordered an end to military attacks in Kachin State, telling the army to shoot
only in self-defense against rebels. But the rebels say the troops on the
ground have flouted the orders, leading some to question the president’s
ability to rein in the military.
The government troops have been accused by Human Rights Watch of
pillaging and burning homes in Kachin State, torturing civilians during
interrogations and raping women in villages.
The hardliners appear to
be behind moves to thwart the peace-forging efforts.
The government group that is negotiating with the
Kachin rebels is led by Vice-President Tin Aung Myint Oo, the country's leading
hardliner.
Some foreign experts
believe the group has been richly rewarded by Chinese companies which are
worried their projects in Kachin State may be shelved by any peace deal.
"The group may be working against the
president and thwarting his efforts," one expert said, speaking on
condition of anonymity.
Economy
On the economic front,
while Thein Sein's administration has initiated some encouraging reforms,
notably the rationalization of currency exchange and reform of the banking
system, there is still uncertainty.
"It remains to be
seen whether it can implement changes that would challenge the core
prerogatives of the existing ruling establishment, an establishment whose
economic approach defines the concept of crony capitalism," Carothers, the
Carnegie expert, said. "So political opening? Yes. Economic reform?
Likely. Democratic transition? Too early to tell."
Parameswaran Ponnudurai
mizzima.com
Business & Investment Opportunities
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