Myanmar - Suu Kyi has the president to thank

Myanmar's historic by-elections that sent democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi into Parliament for the first time would not have been possible without President Thein Sein, observers say.

Quiet and uncharismatic, the former army general nevertheless has surprised the world with a series of bold moves since taking over the reins of government, following the 2010 general election.

His meeting with Suu Kyi last August paved the way for his government to continue with sweeping reforms, from releasing political prisoners and loosening media control to holding peace talks with armed ethnic groups and allowing Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy to take part in Sunday's elections.

Myanmar citizens living in exile abroad were invited to return and some who met the President were impressed by his willingness to listen and take advice.

These impressions as well as Thein Sein's own track record say a lot about the 66-year-old.

Even as a senior combat general, he was considered less ruthless than some of his peers. He has not used his position to favour his home village of Kyonku, still served by rutted muddy roads and sporadic electricity supply.

So what could have led the military man to have a change of heart?

If there was a single event, analysts in Yangon say, it would probably be the 2008 cyclone that devastated Myanmar. The military government was totally unprepared for the catastrophe, which left about 140,000 people dead.

Thein Sein, who was prime minister at the time, left the administrative capital of Naypyidaw to take charge of relief efforts.

But the military government initially rejected offers of foreign assistance as a political debate raged over whether such aid, which Myanmar sorely needed, was in fact foreign "intervention".

According to informed sources in Yangon, it did not take long for Thein Sein to realise that Myanmar was ill-equipped to cope with a disaster of this magnitude.

Since becoming president last year, Thein Sein has had to skilfully use his political capital to convince others of the need for reforms. He has had to also wean his military colleagues off the mindset that liberal democracy is a threat to national unity.

The President has like-minded Cabinet colleagues in railways minister U Aung Min, a former intelligence officer; Lower House Speaker U Shwe Mann, the former No. 3 man in the old regime; interior minister U Ko Ko, an ex-general; and industry minister U Soe Thein, a former vice-admiral.

U Aung Min has been instrumental in pushing ceasefire talks and agreements with armed ethnic groups. U Shwe Mann has encouraged real debate in Parliament and steered it to back reforms. Civil society organisations have also backed the reforms. Chief among them is Myanmar Egress, an NGO.

Analysts believe that those opposing reforms include Vice-President Tin Aung Myint and U Htay Oo, the Union Solidarity and Development Party's general secretary.

Critically, army chief Min Aung Hlaing thus far has quietly supported liberalisation. He is said to have a good relationship with U Shwe Mann.

Still, it all boils down to the personality of the President himself. Those who have met the balding, bespectacled leader, who needs a pacemaker, have all described him as honest and sincere.

Said a foreign ambassador who has met him several times: "You don't get the sense of a person who is driven by ego or power."

A lot has to do with Thein Sein's father, reports have said. U Maung Phyo, who made a living sometimes by weaving bamboo mats, was regarded as a good teacher and respected for his moral values.

The President's wife and daughters are modest and unassuming. One daughter takes the public bus to work in a government department in Yangon.

"All the developments now are the result of a breakthrough between Thein Sein and Aung San Suu Kyi," said Dr Khin Zaw Win, a former political prisoner.

"For the West, Aung San Suu Kyi is very important... But the credit has to go to the President.

Nirmal Ghosh

The Straits Times

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