David met Goliath on a tiny spit of rock and
sand off the western coast of Luzon in the Philippines earlier this month. The
giant here is China, with the Philippines as the puny David, and the
confrontation occurred in Scarborough Shoal, an atoll-like collection of reefs,
rocks and sandbars in the South China Sea.
National
Coast Watch System observers in Luzon have for the past three weeks watched the
presence of Chinese fishing vessels in the area, which the Philippine
government claims is within its 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone
(EEZ). A Philippine Navy aircraft confirmed on April 8 that eight Chinese boats
were inside the lagoon of Scarborough Shoal.
The
Philippine Navy dispatched its newest flagship, the frigate BRP Gregorio del
Pilar, to confront the perceived Chinese intruders. Upon arrival at the shoal,
the ship sent a boarding party that gathered evidence showing that the boats
contained corals, giant clams, and live sharks, all apparently harvested from
Philippine waters.
Before
the fishermen were arrested, however, two vessels from China's maritime
surveillance unit, the Fisheries Law Enforcement, arrived on the scene and
placed themselves between the Philippine frigate and the fishing boats.
On
learning of the situation, Philippine Foreign Secretary Alberto del Rosario
summoned Chinese ambassador Ma Keqing on April 11 and filed a diplomatic
protest on China's alleged intrusion of Philippine waters. In turn, Ma charged
the Philippines with encroaching on Chinese territory and demanded that the
warship be pulled out of the shoal.
The
Scarborough Shoal, like the disputed Spratlys Islands to the south, is a
festering regional flashpoint. Unlike the Spratlys, though, only the
Philippines and China lay claim to the territory (ironically named Panatag
Shoal, or "Calm Shoal" by the Philippines), which energy analysts
believe could be abundant with natural gas.
Chinese
fishing vessels have always trawled in the area, playing a cat-and-mouse game
with the Philippine Coast Guard. China used to place markers on bare rocks
jutting out of the waters while Philippine warships subsequently destroyed them
with naval gunfire. The ongoing stand-off is not only the latest but also the
one with the highest profile, similar to the recent tensions over the disputed
Spratlys.
As both
sides publicly exchanged charges and demands for withdrawal, backroom channels
were utilized to defuse an incendiary situation. Though the Philippine frigate
has enough firepower to take on the two Chinese ships - and a third one that
joined its sister ships later on - a firefight would only prompt China to send
reinforcements from its military bases in nearby Hainan island and flex its
naval superiority.
In a
meeting held in Malacanang earlier that week, President Benigno Aquino
reiterated his policy of "white to white, gray to gray", which meant
that "white" or civilian ships would have to deal with civilian ships
while "gray" or naval ships could only face their foreign
counterparts.
By
April 12, the tense situation appeared on the verge of de-escalating. A
Philippine Coast Guard search and rescue ship, BRP EDSA, relieved the BRP
Gregorio del Pilar. The frigate then proceeded to Poro Point naval station in
La Union on Luzon's west coast for refueling and replenishment.
The
following day, Philippine officials announced that two of the Chinese ships and
the eight fishing boats had slipped away from the shoal. Though no marine
resources were confiscated or Chinese fishermen were arrested, the Philippine
government reiterated that it had not backed down in its confrontation with the
Chinese. At the time, one ship from each country's coast guard service was left
at the shoal.
This
image was reinforced on April 14 when one of the Chinese maritime surveillance
vessels returned to the shoal, outnumbering the lone Philippine coast guard
ship. An unidentified Chinese aircraft also reportedly did fly-bys in the area.
The Chinese ships and aircraft were also accused of harassing a
Philippine-registered yacht, M/Y Sarangani, which had been conducting an
archaeological survey in the vicinity.
As of
April 19, the impasse continued as the M/Y Sarangani incident prompted the
Philippine government to lodge another diplomatic protest with China. The
Chinese Embassy in Manila fired back by claiming as its own the shipwreck that
the crew aboard the M/Y Sarangani had been surveying. It also called again for
the withdrawal of the Philippine Coast Guard ship from the shoal.
Communications
Secretary Ricky Carandang told reporters on April 18 that the government would
not pull out the BRP EDSA from the shoal, and reiterated that China should be
the one to withdraw. This particular stand-off, some analysts reckon, could
result in a moment of strategic truth: Can the Philippine government, through a
combination of diplomatic skills and military maneuvers, take a firm stand
against China's intrusions into its territory?
If a
naval battle were to break out, the Philippines could only field its former US
Coast Guard cutter that saw action in the Vietnam War, a handful of second-hand
patrol boats from the United Kingdom and South Korea, and other older vessels,
some dating back to World War II. Such a flotilla would not stand a chance
against the Goliath of China's bolstered navy.
The
Philippine Air Force, meanwhile, has practically no modern jet fighters to
achieve air superiority, much less meet head-on any fighter jets deployed from
Chinese bases in nearby Hainan island.
Non-committal
allies
On the
diplomatic front, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has yet to
declare openly a common stand with the Philippines in its territorial disputes
with China, notwithstanding Aquino's call for support during an ASEAN summit
recently held in Phnom Penh. It is not surprising, considering that all of
ASEAN's 10 members are increasingly dependent on China for trade and
investment.
The
United States has also been quiet on whether it would honor the Mutual Defense
Treaty it signed with its Philippine ally should a shooting war break out with
China. The US Congressional Research Service said the US-Philippine Mutual
Defense Treaty is open to interpretation, with the US obliged to respond only
if a foreign military attacks Philippine territory or military forces. By this
definition, the obligation for the US to protect Philippine claims to the
Spratlys or Scarborough Shoal is uncertain.
With
support from its neighbors and superpower ally ambiguous, the Philippines is
bulking up its own military muscle. Manila's revenues from the natural gas
fields off Palawan have given Aquino the fiscal confidence to plan for more
arms acquisitions. Though the planned deal for a squadron of second-hand F-16
fighters from the US may or may not come to fruition, the Philippine Air Force
is eyeing the purchase of brand new trainer jets from either South Korea, Italy
or Russia that can be configured into fighters and beef up the Philippines'
airpower for deterrence purposes.
Washington
is working in Manila's corner through other means. Last year, it facilitated
the Philippines' acquisition of the US Coast Guard's largest cutter, now
renamed the BRP Gregorio del Pilar, the same ship that confronted the Chinese
at Scarborough.
A
sister ship is due to be acquired in the middle of this year and there is an
ongoing deal for the purchase of a third sister ship in the latter part of
2012. Unlike the BRP Gregorio del Pilar, sources said there is a strong
possibility that these sister ships will come with their weapons and
electronics systems intact.
Amid
the tensions, the US also pushed through with the annual Balikatan
("Shoulder-to-Shoulder") joint military exercise that started on
April 16 and involved 2,000 Filipino soldiers and sailors and 4,000 personnel
from the US armed forces. It is no coincidence that the exercise was held off
the coast of Palawan, just a few nautical miles from the disputed Spratlys.
For
now, Aquino seems keen to stay the diplomatic course. The withdrawal of the BRP
Gregorio del Pilar from the shoal and replacement with a coast guard vessel to
match the presence of the Chinese "white" maritime surveillance ship
signified his government's willingness to defuse the situation.
Aquino
is also enjoying popular domestic public opinion over his handling of the
issue, as reflected in messages posted in online news portals and forums, and
the comparative dearth of criticism from local media outlets. Surprisingly,
even left-leaning politicians have aired support for Philippine claims to the
Scarborough Shoal.
Manila
believes strongly it holds the moral and legal upper hand in the dispute,
considering that Scarborough Shoal falls within territories provided for under
the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea against the more dubious
historical claims insisted on by China.
The
Philippines also stands to win in the court of international public opinion.
While China played the role of bully by sending additional vessels and aircraft
and harassing a Philippine civilian boat in the vicinity, the Philippines was
seen as trying to de-escalate the situation. Filipino diplomats' calls for
bringing the dispute before an international tribunal would also resonate
positively with other claimants in Southeast Asia.
Despite
China's aversion to the involvement of "outside parties" in the
maritime dispute, the fact that the South China Sea is a vital sea lane for
trade and commerce that affects the US and other countries makes it impossible
to limit any negotiations only to the contending parties.
Political
analysts have pointed out that China may be painting itself into a diplomatic
corner in its attempts to lay exclusive claim to the South China Sea and its
resources and risks eroding the "soft power" gains it made through
fostering trade ties to regional countries.
At the
time of this writing, two "white" ships - one Chinese, the other
Filipino - are still squared off against each other at Scarborough Shoal.
Tensions may have lowered a notch with the withdrawal of the other ships and
fishing boats, but both countries are still scrambling for an acceptable
end-game to the stand-off.
The
question now is not who will blink first but rather how both governments can
secure a win-win situation.
For the
Philippines, the government has been given a chance to draw up a new template
for handling Chinese intrusions in disputed territories that could be a model
for its Southeast Asian neighbors. That is on the assumption that the situation
does not escalate into a shooting war where the smaller claimant is outgunned
and ousted by the bigger.
George
Amurao
Asia
Times
Business & Investment Opportunities
YourVietnamExpert is a division of Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd, Incorporated in Singapore since 1994. As Your Business Companion, we propose a range of services in Strategy, Investment and Management, focusing Healthcare and Life Science with expertise in ASEAN. We also propose Higher Education, as a bridge between educational structures and industries, by supporting international programmes. Many thanks for visiting www.yourvietnamexpert.com and/or contacting us at contact@yourvietnamexpert.com
Dear
Reader,
May I
invite you to visit our new blog: IIMS-Asean http://iims-asean.blogspot.com/
News
and activities of the International Institute of Medicine and Science Asean
Chapter of IIMS, Inc. California, USA - Health care, Life Science, Education,
Research, Philanthropy. Asean is the economic organisation of ten countries
located in South East Asia: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR,
Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. IIMS is a
non-profit organization.
No comments:
Post a Comment