VietNamNet
would like to introduce an analysis
about Vietnam’s urbanization by Victoria Kwakwa, Country Director of the World
Bank in Vietnam.
Hanoi
has a unique charm. The historic old quarter, quaint French architecture.
Lovely lakes and historic pagodas are major attractions. Hanoi is also still
very livable with residents from young to old still able to enjoy parks as hang
outs, for quiet walks, for aerobics, tai chi and other exercises.
Several
residents are able to bike to work or to school. But Hanoi like other cities in
Asia is changing and urbanizing rapidly, evidenced for example in the rapid
development of the My Dinh area, and the numerous sky scrapers that are
transforming the skyline. This rapid change comes with challenges; managing
noise, heavy traffic, air and water pollution.
I live
in a quiet neighborhood and still enjoy the pleasure of being woken up by the
chirping of birds but such neighborhoods are increasingly rare: the city is
much noisier, and no matter where you live, it’s impossible to avoid noise from
construction at some point, starting early in the morning.
In the
three years I’ve had the pleasure of living in Hanoi I’ve seen a rapid growth
in the number of motor bikes and cars on the street and my commute to and from
work at rush hour, though still short by Asian standards, now takes about
thirty minutes, almost twice as long as it did when I arrived. Air quality is
declining and is now ranked among the world’s worst.
These
challenges are not unique to Hanoi, but they can be managed and with the right
policies and actions allowing Hanoi to retain its unique charm and livability
while enjoying the benefits that urbanization brings.
According
to the Vietnam Urbanization Review which the World Bank is releasing today,
Vietnam is urbanizing at a rate of 3.4% per year. Most of that growth is in and
around Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi. This is a good thing.
Urbanization,
especially in the two large economic centers, has had and will continue to have
a central role to play in Vietnam’s economic growth and poverty reduction
story. No country has achieved high
income status and strong economic growth without first urbanizing and nearly
all countries become at least 50% urbanized before fully reaching middle income
status.
Vietnam
expects to reach that point by 2025. Can Vietnam harness the economic and social
opportunities of urbanization and successfully mitigate the challenges it
poses? So far Vietnam has been successful as growth in GDP and remarkable
reductions in poverty have occurred in tandem with increasing urbanization. But
policy makers must do much more to ensure these gains continue and urbanization
provides benefits to all segments of society.
While
Vietnam has done a relatively good job in providing basic services and the lack
of large scale slums suggests most people have access to housing, there are
definitely signs that this is changing.
Land
prices in Ho Chi Minh City and especially in Hanoi are increasing beyond the
reach of the average resident. Our
analysis suggests that the typical housing provided today by formal land
developers is affordable to only the top 5% of the income distribution in these
cities.
Vietnam’s
two tiered land pricing system and lack of transparency in land markets needs
to be addressed as does the extensive use of land sales and leases to finance
local budgets – a practice which induces urban sprawl.
A
healthy debate on the Land Law, as is planned for this session of the National
Assembly, could provide a good opportunity to address many of the inequities
and inefficiencies in Vietnam’s urban land markets and practices.
Planners
must also address the on-coming problem of urban mobility to improve the
livability of cities and provide transport options for all citizens, including
the urban poor, children, the elderly and disabled.
The
extensive use of the motorbike has led to a dispersion of jobs and housing and
urban sprawl. But while the motorbike
has actually helped keep commuting times low even in Vietnam’s largest cities
by international comparisons, the transition to automobiles without
significantly more investment in roads and public transport systems will lead
to gridlock.
Under
current conditions, if automobile ownership in Hanoi reaches the level of
Malaysia – a middle income country- there will be complete gridlock in the
city. There is simply not sufficient
road space for that many cars.
Addressing
these problems also means modernizing and reforming Vietnam’s planning systems,
strengthening urban management and ensuring better coordination between levels
of government and between city departments.
Vietnam’s planning institutions – a legacy of central planning - are
simply not capable of planning within Vietnam’s emerging market framework.
The
recently approved Urban Master Plan for Hanoi is an example of why the planning
system needs to change. The Master Plan
proposes a system of satellite cities consuming large amounts of land and
reducing urban densities which will cost tens of billions of dollars to
develop.
It
risks locking-in public investments where there is no demand. By comparison, the proposed Hanoi Master Plan
would consume nearly twice as much land for a projected population of 6.5
million by 2030 compared to Seoul, South Korea which has a population of 10.5
million. In today’s world where climate change is a concern for everyone,
Vietnam should be focusing on developing high density, compact cities that are
energy efficient and provide suitable housing and employment opportunities for
everyone.
“Vietnam
will have one chance to get urbanization right.
If we fail at urbanization, we will fail at industrialization and
modernization,” then Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Sinh Hung said at the Vietnam
National Urban Conference in November 2009.
These
are profound words and demonstrate that Vietnam’s policy makers understand the
importance that urbanization will play in moving Vietnam from to middle income
and beyond.
Getting
urbanization right will mean greater economic and social opportunities for an
increasing number of Vietnamese. Getting
it wrong would be a lost opportunity.
Victoria
Kwakwa
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