Signs of democratic reforms in Burma are
welcome. But are they likely to help bring an end to ethnic unrest in Kachin
state?
Burma’s
flurry of reform measures, coupled with the breezy spirit of openness
prevailing in the former capital of Yangon, has created genuine hope that
Burma’s underlying fault line – its
ethnic divisions – can now finally be resolved.
Yet the
ongoing conflict in the northern state of Kachin looks like it could remain an
intractable blot on the landscape as Burma attempts to shake off a 40-year legacy of rule by a
brutal military junta.
“The
president called for a ceasefire in March. But more troops were sent,” says Ja
Seng Khawn, daughter of former Kachin Independence Organization Chairman Brang
Seng. “The conflict has intensified. Government troops burnt down villages, and
65,000 civilians have fled from their homes.”
Earlier
this month, government troops moved closer to Laiza, the largest town inside
the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) liberated zone. And, despite calls for peace
talks, the fighting is continuing.
Karen,
Kachin, Chin, Shan and other dissident ethnic forces have been demanding equal
rights and local autonomy for more than forty years, and their repression at
hands of the military has thwarted any attempt to create a genuine Union of Burma
based on its myriad cultures and diversity.
Prospects
appeared to be brightening with the apparently reform minded President Thein
Sein reaching out to non-Burmans, and efforts to bring a halt to the fighting
have enjoyed better results in the case of the Karen National Union and its armed wing. A draft
agreement for a ceasefire has already been signed.
After
decades of bitter conflict with the central government, the dissident Karen forces never dreamed that one day
the president would invite their banned organization to peace talks in the
capital. However, on April 12,Thein Sein hosted seven KNU leaders in Naypyidaw
after another round of peace talks was successfully concluded in Yangon.
Various
sets of talks have taken place with other small ethnic armies, including the
Karenni, Chin, Shan and others, but it’s primarily the resource rich Kachin
state that finds itself excluded from the friendly embrace of the government’s
charm offensive.
Indeed,
there’s been very little charm exuded by the government peace panel responsible
for the talks. The panel is led by Aung Thaung, a former industry minister
described in leaked U.S. diplomatic cables as a “notorious hard-liner.” It has
met a KIO Kachin delegation in China on three occasions, but without any
success in reducing hostilities.
“Wecalled
for military operations launched since June 2011 to stop, in order to achieve a
ceasefire,” says Ja Seng Khawn, now based in Myitkyina, the capital of Kachin
state, after years of working with the KIO leadership. “They didn’t listen to
us. There’s no trust between the two sides.”
U.N. Secretary
General Ban Ki-moon told lawmakers in a landmark address to the
parliament during his recent visit to Burma that “the conflict in Kachin State
is inconsistent with the successful conclusion of the ceasefire agreements with
all other major groups.”
But
observers say that although both the Karen and Kachin have very similar
demands, namely equal rights for their peoples, autonomy and a greater say over
natural resources and development in their territories, ending the hostilities
in Kachin state will be particularly complicated.
In the
eyes of the Kachin leadership, the partial democracy emerging in faraway Yangon
has little meaning for those suffering from military abuses in Kachin state.
And they trace their frustrations back decades.
For
many, the conflict stems from a betrayal of the founding principles of the 1947 Panglong
Agreement.
The
founding father of Burmese independence and the Union of Burma, Gen. Aung San,
had pledged equal rights for all ethnic groups and a commitment to autonomous
states within the union.
“We
Kachin played a big part in working with Gen. Aung San to forge a Union of
Burma, a united front with Burmans seeking independence from British rule,”
says Lahpai Nawdin, editor of the Kachin News Group.
However,
Aung San was assassinated, and the promise of equal rights between Lower Burma
and the ethnic groups that dominate Upper Burma werenever honored.
“The
fighting will never stop, until we get back to the Panglong Agreements,” Lahpai
Nawdin says.
The
Panglong Agreement, with its commitment to ethnic rights and autonomy, stands
in stark contrast with the existing army-based Constitution. And, although
Thein Sein has recognized the need to amend it, he’s unlikely to embrace a
total rewrite that removes the
special role of the armed forces, and its centralization of power and
authority in the capital Naypyidaw.
Still,
the president did spring a surprise with his decision to suspend
the Myitsone dam in September 2011. The mammoth Chinese project, on the
Irrawaddy River, is designed to generate almost as much electricity for China
as the Three Gorges dam, by some estimates.
“The
Myitsone area is famous since ancient times,” Ja Seng says. “It’s very
important to us Kachin people. It is a sacred land of our heritage.”
The
Kachin Independence Army, with an estimated 8,000 soldiers securing a swathe of
liberated territory bordering China, for its part, warned dam developer China
Power and Investment that “the Kachin people will never accept the dam.”
In
response to KIA threats to disrupt dam construction, the army rushed troops to
the Myitsone site to protect the project in June 2011, one of several factors
behind the collapse of the ceasefire between government troops and rebel Kachin
forces signed back in 1994.
But the
Myitsone area isn’t just important to the Kachin. The dam is intended to supply
90 percent of the electricity it generates to China. But a leaked environmental
impact assessmenthas warned that immense damage could be inflicted on the
ecosystem and fisheries around Burma’s most important waterway.
With
this in mind, Thein Sein announced the extraordinary decision to defy Beijing in
September 2011.Defending
his stance, he told the surprised gathering something they simply weren’t
at all used to hearing: “we are respecting the will of the people.”
Asia
World, a company that flourished under the rule of Gen. Than Shwe and his
military junta, is the local partner in the Myitsone Dam. Any peace agreement
that meets even some of the Kachin demands for greater control over their
natural resources is likely to be fiercely opposed by hardliners including Asia
World.
Opposition
leader Aung San Suu Kyi, Ban Ki-moon and Western governments alike are all
supportive of Thein Sein’s reforms, and all are also anxious to see an end to
the ethnic conflict that has wracked the country. But a return to the historic
Panglong Agreements would be anathema to senior military commanders and business
cronies of the junta.
Ultimately,
to bring an end to the fighting in Kachin state, the president needs to
reshuffle his government, reduce the role of hardliners, and then push to
revitalize peace talks with the Kachin. To do this, Thein Sein will need to
secure the cooperation of senior military commanders. Only then can a serious
dialogue with a very determined KIO take place.
Tom Fawthrop
Business & Investment Opportunities
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