Singapore - Asia's rise does not mean West's decline, says minister

Asia is rising, but it does not mean the West is declining.

While the spectacular growth of China, India and other Asian economies is the main catalyst of change in today's international system, it does not mean that the region's system will replace a Western one, Emeritus Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong told a summit yesterday.

The United States "will remain the dominant global player for many more decades", Goh said, but it will not lead alone. China will be called upon to play a bigger role, and its relationship with the US will define the new international system, he said in a keynote speech at the summit in northern Tianjin city.

He was speaking at the opening session of the 30th meeting of the InterAction Council, an independent organisation that counts more than 30 former political leaders as members.

In his speech on "The Present State of the World", Singapore's former prime minister said Asia's rise has drawn attention to the shifting balance of power to the East. But he noted that the Asian region has been profoundly shaped by centuries of contact with the West and has adopted the best practices from it.

"Indeed, much of Asia, including Singapore, owes a debt to the West," he said, noting how the developed world has provided technical assistance, market, capital and investment, which are crucial to Asia's development.

"Moreover, Asia has a strong interest in a Western economic recovery simply because it is now coupled with the West in a globalised economy."

Goh refuted the view of some commentators who say that the US is at risk of decline because of its fiscal situation, by arguing that the US still has an indispensable role to play.

"No major issue concerning international peace and stability can be resolved without US leadership, and no country or geopolitical grouping can yet replace America as the dominant global power," he said. After all, America remains a huge market for most economies, there is no viable alternative to the greenback as a global reserve currency, and US leadership in ideas and innovation is unmatched in many fields.

"Thus, the US has a critical role to play in leading and managing the transition from one international system to another," Goh said.

However, the US cannot do it alone. It must negotiate with coalitions such as the Group of 20 (G-20) nations to manage the international economy.

"There is no going back to G-8 to solve the world's problems," he said. Compared to the Group of Eight, which comprises seven of the world's most industrialised nations and Russia, the G-20 includes emerging markets such as China, India and Indonesia.

When US President Barack Obama announced at a G-20 summit in 2009 that this grouping would replace the G-8, he was "in effect acknowledging the end of the post-World War II era".

Asian growth is driving change in the current system, and emerging economies will account for nearly 60 per cent of the world's gross domestic product by 2020. Still, China and India, which have the potential to become key global powers, are not ready to do so. "Thus far, China appears to have defined its global interests in a selective manner," Goh said. "This is unlikely to be sustainable."

China must expect to be called upon to play a bigger role on the global stage in areas outside its core interests, he said. Much will hinge on the China-US relationship, which is already the most important bilateral relationship in East Asia and sets the tone for the whole region. "Many countries' foreign policy calculations take both the US and China into account," said the Singapore leader.

Of late, the US' pivot to the Asia-Pacific region has raised China's concerns about being encircled by America and its allies. But the fact is that the US has long played a major role in East Asia and contributed to the stability that has led to more than 30 years of growth and prosperity, Goh said. US engagement should continue to be multifaceted, covering both economic and military aspects, he added.

So while some degree of competition between the two countries is inevitable, conflict is not, Goh said. Rather than viewing it as a zero-sum game, it can be seen in "win-win" terms.

"The rise of China does not imply the decline of the US. Conflict should and can be avoided, if competition and rivalry take place within a stable international framework," said Goh.

"It is good that China and the US are working together to ensure that their relationship is one based on cooperation and not confrontation, engagement and not containment."

Grace Ng

The Straits Times

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