The Commerce Ministry will face difficulties
driving the country's export growth to the targeted 15 per cent this year, as
shipments in the first four months dropped, not only from the impact of last
year's floods, but because of the economic sluggishness in the European Union.
During
a meeting of 66 ministry commercial counsellors from overseas in Bangkok
yesterday, the International Trade Promotion Department lowered its
export-growth target slightly to 14.86 per cent, from the previous projection
of 15.52 per cent, based on an anticipated slowing of shipments to the EU and
Russia.
Early
this year, the department projected that exports to the 27 countries of the EU
would grow by 10 per cent. However, it has lowered that to only 5 per cent, as
Europe's financial crunch persists. Thai exports to the EU contracted by 15.6
per cent during the first four months of the year.
It also
lowered the projection for Russia and Eastern Europe from 25-per-cent expansion
to 5 per cent. Shipments to Russia dropped by a significant 13.49 per cent in
the first four months on negative impacts from the EU on that country's
economy. Deputy Commerce Minister Poom Sarapol admitted that to grow exports by
the targeted 15 per cent to US$262 billion (Bt8.3 trillion) would be a tough
task.
Besides
global factors, the effects of last year's flood disaster on Thai industries
and farming have lasted longer than expected. Moreover, rising costs of fuel
and labour have decreased Thai export competitiveness in some industries.
Nuntawan
Sakuntanaga, director-general of department, said it would be a tough mission
for every trade counsellor overseas to help drive exports to the target.
"As
Thai shipments have dropped by 3.9 per cent in the first four months, export to
each target market needs to return to growth of at least 20 per cent monthly
starting in June so that Thailand will achieve the 15-per-cent growth target
this year," Nuntawan said.
Duangkamol
Jiambutr, executive director of the Thai Trade Centre in Frankfurt, Germany,
said the unsettling of the Greek government had continued to affect European
consumers' confidence. A shortage of Thai products due to the flooding last
year has also encouraged some German importers to turn to other nations.
However, if the EU revises its policies and stimulates spending, the EU economy
should gradually recover, growing by 1 per cent next year, from flat growth
this year.
Adul
Chotinisakorn, executive director of the Thai Trade Centre in Mumbai, said the
Indian
economy
had been hit hard by the EU crisis as many European investors had withdrawn
their investment.
Thai
shipments to India are projected to grow by 20 per cent this year, having
expanded by 3.2 per cent in the first four months.
The trade
representative in Shanghai, Wimon Jarusathiti, said the economy in China had
also been hit hard by the EU slowdown as its trade depends heavily on Europe
and the United States.
Thai
export to China is targeted at 20-per-cent expansion this year, from 1.4-per-cent
growth in the first four months. Phatai Sooksommai, executive director of the
Thai Trade Centre in Tokyo, said export of major products, mainly electronic
goods, had dropped a lot because of the floods. However, food exports have
continued to increase.
Thai
shipments to Japan are projected to grow by 10 per cent this year, despite
6.9-per-cent contraction in the first four months.
Natapong
Boonjing, executive director of the Thai Trade Centre in Dubai, said the high
price of Thai rice had reduced demand in the Middle East. The sanctions against
Iran have also created difficulties, he said. However, the centre projects that
export of Thai chicken will bolster the export figures, after Bahrain recently
lifted its export ban on fresh poultry from the Kingdom.
Growth
of exports to the Middle East is targeted at 12 per cent this year, from 0.25
per cent expansion in the first four months.
Targeted
export growth figures to other major destination include 10 per cent in the US,
15 per cent in Africa, 20 per cent in Asean, 25 per cent in Indochina including
Myanmar, 15 per cent in Latin American, 15 per cent in South Korea, 10 per cent
in Australia, and 10 per cent in Canada.
Petchanet
Pratruangkrai
The
Nation
Business & Investment Opportunities
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