Jun 2, 2012

Myanmar - Myanmar's Suu Kyi Warns Against 'Reckless Optimism'

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BANGKOK—When Aung San Suu Kyi flew into Bangkok on her first overseas trip in nearly a quarter-century this week, the captain of the Thai Airways airplane invited her into the cockpit. Two thoughts went through her mind, she told a business conference here Friday.

The first, she said, was "look at the all the controls," as the lights of Bangkok spread out below her, in stark contrast to Yangon, which is still afflicted by regular power outages. Then came her second thought: "We need an energy policy."

Myanmar's economy has lagged far behind the explosive growth seen elsewhere in East Asia. In the 24 years since Ms. Suu Kyi returned home to Myanmar from London to nurse her ailing mother, the skylines of cities such as Bangkok, Singapore and Jakarta have burst ever higher amid a surge of foreign investment and home-grown spending. Per-capita incomes have expanded, leaving many of Myanmar's people far behind, and prompting many of them to seek work in Thailand, Malaysia and elsewhere.

Myanmar's new, quasi-civilian government now hopes that a year of political reforms that have turned this one-time military state into a fragile new democracy will lead to a similar economic boom there. The U.S. and other countries have relaxed sanctions against the country, and multinational companies are eagerly eyeing opportunities among its rich natural resources and fresh, untouched market of more than 50 million people.

Ms. Suu Kyi, though, had a simple message for prospective investors and business leaders at the World Economic Forum meetings in Bangkok this week: Let's not be too hasty.

Speaking to delegates at the World Economic Forum meetings in Bangkok this week, Ms. Suu Kyi—now the country's parliamentary opposition leader after spending a total of 15 years under house arrest—welcomed the prospect of a flood of foreign money entering the country. But she also said that investors planning to bet heavily on Myanmar, also known as Burma, should be cautious given the continuing uncertainty surrounding the country's political and economic outlook.

The country's depleted secondary school system remains a major concern, Ms. Suu Kyi said, adding that investment is needed to help produce enough sufficiently well-educated people to benefit from the wave of investment that could wash over the country in coming years. She also pointed out problems in the country's judicial system and lack of rule of law in a country that only last year emerged from around half a century of military rule. Referring to ongoing moves to draft a foreign investment law, Ms. Suu Kyi cautioned that "even the best investment law is no use" without clean, competent courts to rule on disputes.

"These days I'm coming across a lot of what I call 'reckless optimism,' " Ms. Suu Kyi said. "A little bit of healthy skepticism I think is in order."

Crucially, though, Ms. Suu Kyi stressed that the momentum toward creating a more open and democratic political system depends heavily on the support what is still the most influential political actor in Myanmar: the military. While Ms. Suu Kyi and other opposition figures have applauded President Thein Sein, a retired general, for the reforms he has pushed over the last year, there is still widespread concern about whether the country will maintain its current trajectory.

"I do believe in the sincerity of the president when he speaks of his commitment to reform," Ms. Suu Kyi said. "But I also recognize that he's not the only person in government. And, as I keep repeating, there's the military to be reckoned with."

Western governments suspended their sanctions as a way of rewarding Mr. Thein Sein's efforts and encouraging the government to redouble their efforts in order to make that suspension permanent.

Analysts say that what Myanmar really needs to reassure the military and secure its longer-term future is a quick economic dividend in the form of investments that can quickly provide jobs to help to kick-start the country's development and build up its badly corroded infrastructure.

It's a view Ms. Suu Kyi also shares. Describing widespread unemployment among Myanmar's young population as a potential "time bomb," she also urged investors, foreign governments and other organizations to think carefully about how to invest in the country and create the right kind of opportunities to drive its economy forward. She also described a series of candle-lit protests against widespread power outages around Myanmar in the days preceding her visit to Thailand this week.

Ms. Suu Kyi's main concern, she said, is to avoid creating more possibilities for corruption, which could worsen the inequalities that already blight the country and tarnish its future prospects.

"We do not want more investment to mean more possibilities for corruption," Ms. Suu Kyi said. "Our country must benefit."

JAMES HOOKWAY


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