BANGKOK—When Aung San Suu Kyi flew into Bangkok on
her first overseas trip in nearly a quarter-century this week, the captain of
the Thai Airways airplane invited her into the cockpit. Two thoughts went
through her mind, she told a business conference here Friday.
The
first, she said, was "look at the all the controls," as the lights of
Bangkok spread out below her, in stark contrast to Yangon, which is still
afflicted by regular power outages. Then came her second thought: "We need
an energy policy."
Myanmar's
economy has lagged far behind the explosive growth seen elsewhere in East Asia.
In the 24 years since Ms. Suu Kyi returned home to Myanmar from London to nurse
her ailing mother, the skylines of cities such as Bangkok, Singapore and
Jakarta have burst ever higher amid a surge of foreign investment and
home-grown spending. Per-capita incomes have expanded, leaving many of
Myanmar's people far behind, and prompting many of them to seek work in
Thailand, Malaysia and elsewhere.
Myanmar's
new, quasi-civilian government now hopes that a year of political reforms that
have turned this one-time military state into a fragile new democracy will lead
to a similar economic boom there. The U.S. and other countries have relaxed
sanctions against the country, and multinational companies are eagerly eyeing
opportunities among its rich natural resources and fresh, untouched market of
more than 50 million people.
Ms. Suu
Kyi, though, had a simple message for prospective investors and business
leaders at the World Economic Forum meetings in Bangkok this week: Let's not be
too hasty.
Speaking
to delegates at the World Economic Forum meetings in Bangkok this week, Ms. Suu
Kyi—now the country's parliamentary opposition leader after spending a total of
15 years under house arrest—welcomed the prospect of a flood of foreign money
entering the country. But she also said that investors planning to bet heavily
on Myanmar, also known as Burma, should be cautious given the continuing
uncertainty surrounding the country's political and economic outlook.
The
country's depleted secondary school system remains a major concern, Ms. Suu Kyi
said, adding that investment is needed to help produce enough sufficiently
well-educated people to benefit from the wave of investment that could wash
over the country in coming years. She also pointed out problems in the
country's judicial system and lack of rule of law in a country that only last
year emerged from around half a century of military rule. Referring to ongoing
moves to draft a foreign investment law, Ms. Suu Kyi cautioned that "even
the best investment law is no use" without clean, competent courts to rule
on disputes.
"These
days I'm coming across a lot of what I call 'reckless optimism,' " Ms. Suu
Kyi said. "A little bit of healthy skepticism I think is in order."
Crucially,
though, Ms. Suu Kyi stressed that the momentum toward creating a more open and
democratic political system depends heavily on the support what is still the
most influential political actor in Myanmar: the military. While Ms. Suu Kyi
and other opposition figures have applauded President Thein Sein, a retired
general, for the reforms he has pushed over the last year, there is still
widespread concern about whether the country will maintain its current
trajectory.
"I
do believe in the sincerity of the president when he speaks of his commitment
to reform," Ms. Suu Kyi said. "But I also recognize that he's not the
only person in government. And, as I keep repeating, there's the military to be
reckoned with."
Western
governments suspended their sanctions as a way of rewarding Mr. Thein Sein's
efforts and encouraging the government to redouble their efforts in order to
make that suspension permanent.
Analysts
say that what Myanmar really needs to reassure the military and secure its
longer-term future is a quick economic dividend in the form of investments that
can quickly provide jobs to help to kick-start the country's development and
build up its badly corroded infrastructure.
It's a
view Ms. Suu Kyi also shares. Describing widespread unemployment among Myanmar's
young population as a potential "time bomb," she also urged
investors, foreign governments and other organizations to think carefully about
how to invest in the country and create the right kind of opportunities to
drive its economy forward. She also described a series of candle-lit protests
against widespread power outages around Myanmar in the days preceding her visit
to Thailand this week.
Ms. Suu
Kyi's main concern, she said, is to avoid creating more possibilities for
corruption, which could worsen the inequalities that already blight the country
and tarnish its future prospects.
"We
do not want more investment to mean more possibilities for corruption,"
Ms. Suu Kyi said. "Our country must benefit."
JAMES
HOOKWAY
Business & Investment Opportunities
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